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   "content" : "# Grønn jul? Skyld på Golfstrømmen!\n\n## Varmetransporten forblir uendret – eller øker\n\n## Mye å bekymre seg for\n\n## De viktigste rådene\n\nI Skandinavia har vi mange utfordringer foran oss hvis vi skal opprettholde vår høye nåværende levestandard. En brå avkjøling er ikke en av dem.\n\nVi hører ofte at Golfstrømmen plutselig kan stoppe opp, og at Nord-Europa eller Skandinavia kan oppleve en brå nedkjøling på grunn av endringer i havsirkulasjonen i Atlanteren. Det stemmer ikke.\n\nFrykten for en «kollaps» av omveltningen i Atlanterhavet (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – Amoc) dukker opp i [mediene](https://www.nrk.no/klima/frykter-temperaturer-ned-mot-minus-50-i-oslo-om-amoc-forsvinner-1.17454602) og noen kretser i klimaforskningsmiljøet med jevne mellomrom. Selv om det teoretisk sett ikke er mulig å utelukke et svært usannsynlig fremtidsscenario, formidles minst én alvorlig misforståelse.\n\nEn «kollaps», eller rettere sagt en stor reduksjon, er ikke knyttet til en lignende reduksjon i varmetransporten mot de nordiske hav. Varmetransport i havet avhenger både av hvor mye vann som føres nordover, og av hvor mye det blir kjølt ned. Dette betyr at selv om Amoc svekkes, kan og vil varmetransporten til de nordiske havene bli uendret – eller til og med øke.\n\nOmtrent 50 prosent av varmetransporten over Grønland-Skottland-ryggen og inn i de nordiske hav [er horisontal](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020RG000725). Dette er varmt atlantisk vann som strømmer langs norskekysten, avkjøles og strømmer sørover – i overflaten.\n\nDenne sirkulasjonen er drevet av vind og tilførsel av ferskvann og er helt uavhengig av omveltningen (Amoc). Den vinddrevne sirkulasjonen vil i fremtiden sannsynligvis ikke endre seg i stor grad, selv om den varierer både gjennom året og fra år til år.\n\nStrømmen av ferske og kalde vannmasser sørover nær Grønland holder seg der på grunn av Jordens rotasjon. Disse ferske vannmassene er i hovedsak arktisk elvevann som blandes med saltere vann under, og dermed også driver innstrømning av varmt vann.\n\nAvkjøling og nedsynking av varmt atlantisk vann er den delen som er relatert til omveltningen (Amoc). Vi oseanografer kaller dette vannmassetransformasjon – eller produksjon av tunge vannmasser. Med den pågående oppvarmingen har det allerede vært en betydelig reduksjon i produksjonen av de tyngste vannmassene i Grønlandshavet. [Dette startet i 1985](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661124001101), og siden den gang har det vært en jevn transport og økt varmetransport mot de nordiske havene – på grunn av oppvarmingen.\n\nStore klimaendringer pågår allerede, og det er mye å bekymre seg for. Oppmerksomhet rundt at Golfstrømmen kan stoppe fører imidlertid bare til en avsporing fra de virkelig presserende problemene havet står overfor: oppvarming, havstigning og forsuring.\n\nDen pågående oppvarmingen av havet og luften venter vi vil minke produksjonen av tyngre vannmasser. Varmere vann har mindre tetthet og synker i mindre grad. Dette simuleres også av FNs klimapanels modeller. Det er ventet at omveltningen (Amoc) vil bli redusert med 30–40 prosent frem til år 2100.\n\nDet pågår mye ny forskning som skal gi oss mer informasjon om dette, og i 2026 starter også det store norske [«Polhavet 2050»](https://uit.no/polhavet2050)-prosjektet opp. Men allerede peker studier på at redusert sjøis i Arktis har en stabiliserende effekt. Dette betyr at selv om havets avkjøling pr. areal reduseres, vil dette kompenseres fordi det er et større areal av havet som kjøles ned i fremtiden.\n\nDen ferskvannsdrevne delen av ut- og innstrømningen vil også øke i fremtiden. Dette er fordi når luften varmes opp, holder den på mer fuktighet, og med global oppvarming venter vi mer regn i våte områder og mer fordampning i tørrere regioner. Denne endringen i den hydrologiske syklusen vil derfor også føre til mer elvevann i Polhavet og en relatert økning i volumtransport ut og inn. Gitt en videre oppvarming får vi derfor et bidrag til økt varmetransport.\n\nAmoc er derfor ikke et godt mål på fremtidige endringer i Skandinavia.\n\nMedienes overskrifter om «Golfstrømmen» er som regel rettet mot en plutselig avkjøling for Nord-Europa eller Skandinavia. Dette er en farlig forenkling.\n\nDet mest sannsynlige fremtidsscenarioet er en økning i varmetransport mot de nordiske havene til tross for en reduksjon i Amoc.\n\nKonseptet Amoc representerer den vertikale transportstyrken i Atlanterhavet og ser havet som et transportbånd. Dette ble introdusert som et hjelpemiddel for å forstå global sirkulasjon, en verdi som er nyttig for å sammenligne simuleringer av havet. Dette konseptet er imidlertid ganske abstrakt og sier ingenting om hvordan den horisontale delen av sirkulasjonen vil utvikle seg i fremtiden.\n\nDette Amoc-konseptet har dessverre fått for mye oppmerksomhet og forvirrer i diskusjonen om klima og havsirkulasjon, spesielt i mediene, men også i vitenskapelig litteratur.\n\nSelv om det oseanografiske miljøet kan virke ganske splittet i dag, er vi enige om de tre viktigste havbaserte rådene til samfunnet:\n\n1. Vi bør slutte å slippe ut CO2. Det skader biosfæren og samfunnet vårt på mange måter og på global skala.\n\n2. Vi bør fortsette å observere havet. Frem til i dag har havet tatt opp mer enn 90 prosent av energien fra global oppvarming og vil være en viktig bidragsyter til fremtidig klimavariasjoner.\n\n3. Vi bør også fortsette å forbedre modeller for å forutsi klima og vær i måneder og sesonger fremover for bedre å kunne imøtekomme en rekke samfunnsbehov.\n\nI Skandinavia har vi mange utfordringer foran oss hvis vi skal opprettholde vår nåværende høye levestandard. En brå avkjøling er ikke én av dem.\n\nVi har dessverre mange grønne juler foran oss.\n\n- [Lars H. SmedsrudProfessor, Universitetet i Bergen](http://aftenposten.no/av/lars-h-smedsrud)",
   "created_at" : "2025-12-16 09:17:08",
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   "metadata" : "{\"author\":\"\",\"og\":{\"image:height\":\"1365\",\"url\":\"https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kronikk/i/Ar2ynz/kan-golfstroemmen-kollapse-paastanden-hviler-paa-minst-en-alvorlig-misforstaaelse\",\"description\":\"I Skandinavia har vi mange utfordringer foran oss hvis vi skal opprettholde vår høye nåværende levestandard. En brå avkjøling er ikke en av dem.\",\"title\":\"Kronikk: «Kan Golfstrømmen kollapse? Påstanden hviler på minst én alvorlig misforståelse.»\",\"image\":\"https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/a30e49a7-6424-4b2f-b503-09a9d1f0f1fe?fit=crop&format=auto&h=1365&w=2048&s=ffd28dbb99b924ac2cb851c14854ce9ab4e235be\",\"type\":\"article\",\"image:width\":\"2048\"},\"published_at\":\"2025-12-16 08:49:28\",\"image_url\":\"https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/a30e49a7-6424-4b2f-b503-09a9d1f0f1fe?fit=crop&format=auto&h=1365&w=2048&s=ffd28dbb99b924ac2cb851c14854ce9ab4e235be\",\"raw_feed_item\":\"<item>\\n            <title><![CDATA[I Skandinavia har vi mange utfordringer foran oss. En Golfstrøm-kollaps er ikke én av dem.]]></title>\\n            <link>https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kronikk/i/Ar2ynz/kan-golfstroemmen-kollapse-paastanden-hviler-paa-minst-en-alvorlig-misforstaaelse</link>\\n            <guid>https://www.aftenposten.no/i/Ar2ynz</guid>\\n            <pubDate>Tue, 16 Dec 2025 08:49:28 GMT</pubDate>\\n            <description><![CDATA[I Skandinavia har vi mange utfordringer foran oss hvis vi skal opprettholde vår høye nåværende levestandard.]]></description>\\n            <enclosure length=\\\"65535\\\" type=\\\"image/jpeg\\\" url=\\\"https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/74b9c8e4-69fb-4f1d-aa4e-760120db7041?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1152&amp;tight=true&amp;w=2048&amp;s=1e6beab5b0fbf1b49b2606c740312db701855e1b\\\" />\\n        </item>\",\"is_paywalled\":1,\"keywords\":[],\"source_updated_at\":\"2025-12-15 11:38:59\",\"title\":\"Kronikk: «Kan Golfstrømmen kollapse? Påstanden hviler på minst én alvorlig misforståelse.»\",\"content\":\"# Grønn jul? Skyld på Golfstrømmen!\\n\\n## Varmetransporten forblir uendret – eller øker\\n\\n## Mye å bekymre seg for\\n\\n## De viktigste rådene\\n\\nI Skandinavia har vi mange utfordringer foran oss hvis vi skal opprettholde vår høye nåværende levestandard. En brå avkjøling er ikke en av dem.\\n\\nVi hører ofte at Golfstrømmen plutselig kan stoppe opp, og at Nord-Europa eller Skandinavia kan oppleve en brå nedkjøling på grunn av endringer i havsirkulasjonen i Atlanteren. Det stemmer ikke.\\n\\nFrykten for en «kollaps» av omveltningen i Atlanterhavet (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – Amoc) dukker opp i [mediene](https://www.nrk.no/klima/frykter-temperaturer-ned-mot-minus-50-i-oslo-om-amoc-forsvinner-1.17454602) og noen kretser i klimaforskningsmiljøet med jevne mellomrom. Selv om det teoretisk sett ikke er mulig å utelukke et svært usannsynlig fremtidsscenario, formidles minst én alvorlig misforståelse.\\n\\nEn «kollaps», eller rettere sagt en stor reduksjon, er ikke knyttet til en lignende reduksjon i varmetransporten mot de nordiske hav. Varmetransport i havet avhenger både av hvor mye vann som føres nordover, og av hvor mye det blir kjølt ned. Dette betyr at selv om Amoc svekkes, kan og vil varmetransporten til de nordiske havene bli uendret – eller til og med øke.\\n\\nOmtrent 50 prosent av varmetransporten over Grønland-Skottland-ryggen og inn i de nordiske hav [er horisontal](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020RG000725). Dette er varmt atlantisk vann som strømmer langs norskekysten, avkjøles og strømmer sørover – i overflaten.\\n\\nDenne sirkulasjonen er drevet av vind og tilførsel av ferskvann og er helt uavhengig av omveltningen (Amoc). Den vinddrevne sirkulasjonen vil i fremtiden sannsynligvis ikke endre seg i stor grad, selv om den varierer både gjennom året og fra år til år.\\n\\nStrømmen av ferske og kalde vannmasser sørover nær Grønland holder seg der på grunn av Jordens rotasjon. Disse ferske vannmassene er i hovedsak arktisk elvevann som blandes med saltere vann under, og dermed også driver innstrømning av varmt vann.\\n\\nAvkjøling og nedsynking av varmt atlantisk vann er den delen som er relatert til omveltningen (Amoc). Vi oseanografer kaller dette vannmassetransformasjon – eller produksjon av tunge vannmasser. Med den pågående oppvarmingen har det allerede vært en betydelig reduksjon i produksjonen av de tyngste vannmassene i Grønlandshavet. [Dette startet i 1985](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661124001101), og siden den gang har det vært en jevn transport og økt varmetransport mot de nordiske havene – på grunn av oppvarmingen.\\n\\nStore klimaendringer pågår allerede, og det er mye å bekymre seg for. Oppmerksomhet rundt at Golfstrømmen kan stoppe fører imidlertid bare til en avsporing fra de virkelig presserende problemene havet står overfor: oppvarming, havstigning og forsuring.\\n\\nDen pågående oppvarmingen av havet og luften venter vi vil minke produksjonen av tyngre vannmasser. Varmere vann har mindre tetthet og synker i mindre grad. Dette simuleres også av FNs klimapanels modeller. Det er ventet at omveltningen (Amoc) vil bli redusert med 30–40 prosent frem til år 2100.\\n\\nDet pågår mye ny forskning som skal gi oss mer informasjon om dette, og i 2026 starter også det store norske [«Polhavet 2050»](https://uit.no/polhavet2050)-prosjektet opp. Men allerede peker studier på at redusert sjøis i Arktis har en stabiliserende effekt. Dette betyr at selv om havets avkjøling pr. areal reduseres, vil dette kompenseres fordi det er et større areal av havet som kjøles ned i fremtiden.\\n\\nDen ferskvannsdrevne delen av ut- og innstrømningen vil også øke i fremtiden. Dette er fordi når luften varmes opp, holder den på mer fuktighet, og med global oppvarming venter vi mer regn i våte områder og mer fordampning i tørrere regioner. Denne endringen i den hydrologiske syklusen vil derfor også føre til mer elvevann i Polhavet og en relatert økning i volumtransport ut og inn. Gitt en videre oppvarming får vi derfor et bidrag til økt varmetransport.\\n\\nAmoc er derfor ikke et godt mål på fremtidige endringer i Skandinavia.\\n\\nMedienes overskrifter om «Golfstrømmen» er som regel rettet mot en plutselig avkjøling for Nord-Europa eller Skandinavia. Dette er en farlig forenkling.\\n\\nDet mest sannsynlige fremtidsscenarioet er en økning i varmetransport mot de nordiske havene til tross for en reduksjon i Amoc.\\n\\nKonseptet Amoc representerer den vertikale transportstyrken i Atlanterhavet og ser havet som et transportbånd. Dette ble introdusert som et hjelpemiddel for å forstå global sirkulasjon, en verdi som er nyttig for å sammenligne simuleringer av havet. Dette konseptet er imidlertid ganske abstrakt og sier ingenting om hvordan den horisontale delen av sirkulasjonen vil utvikle seg i fremtiden.\\n\\nDette Amoc-konseptet har dessverre fått for mye oppmerksomhet og forvirrer i diskusjonen om klima og havsirkulasjon, spesielt i mediene, men også i vitenskapelig litteratur.\\n\\nSelv om det oseanografiske miljøet kan virke ganske splittet i dag, er vi enige om de tre viktigste havbaserte rådene til samfunnet:\\n\\n1. Vi bør slutte å slippe ut CO2. Det skader biosfæren og samfunnet vårt på mange måter og på global skala.\\n\\n2. Vi bør fortsette å observere havet. Frem til i dag har havet tatt opp mer enn 90 prosent av energien fra global oppvarming og vil være en viktig bidragsyter til fremtidig klimavariasjoner.\\n\\n3. Vi bør også fortsette å forbedre modeller for å forutsi klima og vær i måneder og sesonger fremover for bedre å kunne imøtekomme en rekke samfunnsbehov.\\n\\nI Skandinavia har vi mange utfordringer foran oss hvis vi skal opprettholde vår nåværende høye levestandard. En brå avkjøling er ikke én av dem.\\n\\nVi har dessverre mange grønne juler foran oss.\\n\\n- [Lars H. SmedsrudProfessor, Universitetet i Bergen](http://aftenposten.no/av/lars-h-smedsrud)\",\"description\":\"I Skandinavia har vi mange utfordringer foran oss hvis vi skal opprettholde vår høye nåværende levestandard. En brå avkjøling er ikke en av dem.\",\"meta\":{\"theme-color\":\"#fff\",\"mobile-web-app-capable\":\"yes\",\"apple-mobile-web-app-title\":\"Aftenposten\",\"viewport\":\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0\",\"application-name\":\"Aftenposten\",\"apple-mobile-web-app-capable\":\"yes\",\"msapplication-TileImage\":\"/cnp-assets/favicon-6c399f1f/mstile-144x144.png\",\"robots\":\"max-image-preview:large\",\"apple-mobile-web-app-status-bar-style\":\"black-translucent\",\"msapplication-TileColor\":\"#fff\",\"description\":\"I Skandinavia har vi mange utfordringer foran oss hvis vi skal opprettholde vår høye nåværende levestandard. En brå avkjøling er ikke en av dem.\",\"msapplication-config\":\"/cnp-assets/favicon-6c399f1f/browserconfig.xml\"},\"schema\":{\"microdata\":{\"datePublished\":\"14. desember\"}},\"twitter\":{}}",
   "og_title" : "Kronikk: «Kan Golfstrømmen kollapse? Påstanden hviler på minst én alvorlig misforståelse.»",
   "published_at" : "2025-12-16 08:49:28",
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class=\"advertory-aftenposten-skyscraperleft_1-wrapper\"><div id=\"skyscraperleft_1\" class=\"advertory-aftenposten-skyscraperleft_1\"></div></div></div><div class=\"hyperion-css-yck6b5\"><div class=\"page-layout-supertop hyperion-css-1499hb2\"><div class=\"advertory-aftenposten-topboard-wrapper\"><div id=\"topboard\" style=\"min-height:150px\" class=\"advertory-aftenposten-topboard\"></div></div><div class=\"advertory-wrapper-common-wallpaper wallpaper\"><div id=\"wallpaper\" class=\"advertory-common-wallpaper disable-cogwheel\"></div></div></div><div class=\"hyperion-css-dz5hzo\"><article class=\"article-wrapper-Ar2ynz\"><div class=\"opinion running-head extendedContent hyperion-css-1z06dqh\" data-test-tag=\"running-head\"><div class=\"hyperion-css-7enjca\"><a data-test-tag=\"internal-link\" href=\"/meninger/kronikk\" class=\"hyperion-css-1raymq9\" rel=\"\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"Kronikk\" theme=\"opinion\">Kronikk</a></div><div class=\"hyperion-css-semo9s\"><a data-test-tag=\"internal-link\" href=\"/tag/golfstroemmen\" class=\"hyperion-css-1raymq9\" rel=\"\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"Golfstrømmen\" theme=\"opinion\">Golfstrømmen</a></div></div><h1 class=\"extendedContent h1 hyperion-css-j2lk82\" data-test-tag=\"headline\">Grønn jul? Skyld på Golfstrømmen!</h1><div class=\"extendedContent hyperion-css-cgw1f6\"><div class=\"hyperion-css-io3370\" data-test-tag=\"byline\" data-testid=\"byline\"><ul data-test-tag=\"byline:authors\" data-testid=\"byline:authors\" class=\"hyperion-css-1772xtw\"><li class=\"hyperion-css-b8p8ys\"><a title=\"Se journalistens profil: Lars H. Smedsrud\" aria-label=\"Se journalistens profil: Lars H. Smedsrud\" href=\"http://aftenposten.no/av/lars-h-smedsrud\" class=\"hyperion-css-1x0qoq7\"><div class=\"hyperion-css-y7i40o\"><img class=\"image-asset hyperion-css-u06ts1\" data-test-tag=\"image-asset\" src=\"https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/author/3a476b23-0329-4f4f-80e6-6b1e507c9dfe?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=2048&amp;w=2048&amp;s=8161ed62e573af8ed5ae5d011f8b5640b1b4fdd6\" srcSet=\"https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/author/3a476b23-0329-4f4f-80e6-6b1e507c9dfe?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=2048&amp;w=2048&amp;s=8161ed62e573af8ed5ae5d011f8b5640b1b4fdd6 2048w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/author/3a476b23-0329-4f4f-80e6-6b1e507c9dfe?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1440&amp;w=1440&amp;s=31ef60eb6db8b7dfea24f6d2e284e45554c5f39c 1440w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/author/3a476b23-0329-4f4f-80e6-6b1e507c9dfe?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1024&amp;w=1024&amp;s=5db34bd8d2506ce3d1e989b4902a67328ba9371e 1024w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/author/3a476b23-0329-4f4f-80e6-6b1e507c9dfe?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=980&amp;w=980&amp;s=36bc06137226514213da00da9cd977a5c48f273e 980w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/author/3a476b23-0329-4f4f-80e6-6b1e507c9dfe?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=780&amp;w=780&amp;s=56ef561685b4e8d913cf93d85053d985a76f871a 780w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/author/3a476b23-0329-4f4f-80e6-6b1e507c9dfe?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=580&amp;w=580&amp;s=1c9c21b24bc0c718fa0290f1cfa26ef6c04dc74c 580w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/author/3a476b23-0329-4f4f-80e6-6b1e507c9dfe?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=380&amp;w=380&amp;s=bb42271e13c3495d25e12a1b255d0fe11ee13869 380w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/author/3a476b23-0329-4f4f-80e6-6b1e507c9dfe?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=200&amp;w=200&amp;s=f1922052b11b28f5e6702f8e51f7fced8f6774b3 200w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/author/3a476b23-0329-4f4f-80e6-6b1e507c9dfe?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=100&amp;w=100&amp;s=f59b0a308c3ace45b7fab872b5fcf5b0a4f95005 100w\" alt=\"Lars H. Smedsrud\" sizes=\"(min-width: 981px) 980px, 100vw\" fetchpriority=\"auto\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2048 / 2048\"/></div><div class=\"hyperion-css-0\"><span class=\"byline-name hyperion-css-1cn5stf\" data-test-tag=\"byline:author-name\" data-testid=\"byline:author-name\">Lars H. Smedsrud</span><div class=\"hyperion-css-lc8ynt\">Professor, Universitetet i Bergen</div></div></a></li></ul></div></div><div class=\"hyperion-css-ytalhi\"><div class=\"hyperion-css-upuxee\"><div class=\"contentWidth hyperion-css-eemj7d\"><div class=\"hyperion-css-152x5og\"><div class=\"hyperion-css-1xdhyk6\"></div></div></div></div><div class=\"hyperion-css-6kzd76\"></div></div><figure data-test-tag=\"image\" class=\"image fullWidthDesktop top stretch-image-asset-on-mobile landscape hyperion-css-mochwu\"><img class=\"image-asset hyperion-css-u06ts1\" data-test-tag=\"image-asset\" src=\"https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1369&amp;w=2048&amp;s=795821edf459dee1a8bcebbad1fca0514cdbcabe\" srcSet=\"https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1369&amp;w=2048&amp;s=795821edf459dee1a8bcebbad1fca0514cdbcabe 2048w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=963&amp;w=1440&amp;s=665ef40c5002c83b6b4e74a4bb66778c0df49ff4 1440w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=685&amp;w=1024&amp;s=55fd816a28ed1db562c7fd239003eb8a8638d4c5 1024w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=655&amp;w=980&amp;s=94c7a84a69cf088420153d799f5a16f979d418a0 980w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=522&amp;w=780&amp;s=ef38824e73668a6b4025c711aad4535f0a29403d 780w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=388&amp;w=580&amp;s=00c4537b4aecc8bc29182a476235b21530fb3f2a 580w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=254&amp;w=380&amp;s=89f3668c58a769466fe5dc38ba43cce24d0fdd1c 380w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=134&amp;w=200&amp;s=546ef15b108f297a92a3470473ad737543d587cd 200w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=67&amp;w=100&amp;s=3403f5a93d005105b3e437639cb8c4fa07c22cc8 100w\" alt=\"En plutselig avkjøling i Nord-Europa er svært lite sannsynlig. Vi har mange grønne juler foran oss, skriver professor Lars H. Smedsrud.\" sizes=\"(min-width: 380px) 980px, 100vw\" loading=\"eager\" fetchpriority=\"high\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2048 / 1369\"/><figcaption class=\"image-figcaption hyperion-css-1ksg4fz\" data-test-tag=\"image:caption\"><span class=\"image-caption\" aria-hidden=\"true\">En plutselig avkjøling i Nord-Europa er svært lite sannsynlig. Vi har mange grønne juler foran oss, skriver professor Lars H. Smedsrud.</span><span class=\"image-byline hyperion-css-161dy2i\"> Foto: Jan T. Espedal</span></figcaption></figure><p class=\"contentWidth hyperion-css-1mepuqa\" data-test-tag=\"lead-text\">I Skandinavia har vi mange utfordringer foran oss hvis vi skal opprettholde vår høye nåværende levestandard. En brå avkjøling er ikke en av dem.</p><div class=\"paywall hyperion-css-h9wc15\" data-test-tag=\"timestamp\"><div><time itemProp=\"datePublished\" dateTime=\"2025-12-16T08:49:28Z\" aria-label=\"Publisert: 16.12.2025 09:49\">Publisert: 16.12.2025 09:49</time></div></div><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Vi hører ofte at Golfstrømmen plutselig kan stoppe opp, og at Nord-Europa eller Skandinavia kan oppleve en brå nedkjøling på grunn av endringer i havsirkulasjonen i Atlanteren. Det stemmer ikke.</p><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Frykten for en «kollaps» av omveltningen i Atlanterhavet (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – Amoc) dukker opp i <a aria-label=\"mediene\" class=\"opinion hyperion-css-1raymq9\" href=\"https://www.nrk.no/klima/frykter-temperaturer-ned-mot-minus-50-i-oslo-om-amoc-forsvinner-1.17454602\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\" data-test-tag=\"external-link\">mediene</a> og noen kretser i klimaforskningsmiljøet med jevne mellomrom. Selv om det teoretisk sett ikke er mulig å utelukke et svært usannsynlig fremtidsscenario, formidles minst én alvorlig misforståelse. </p><div class=\"advertory-aftenposten-netboard-wrapper__article \"><div id=\"netboard_1\" class=\"advertory-aftenposten-netboard__article\"></div></div><h2 class=\"paywall hyperion-css-npxxyf\" data-test-tag=\"paragraph-header\">Varmetransporten forblir uendret – eller øker</h2><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">En «kollaps», eller rettere sagt en stor reduksjon, er ikke knyttet til en lignende reduksjon i varmetransporten mot de nordiske hav. Varmetransport i havet avhenger både av hvor mye vann som føres nordover, og av hvor mye det blir kjølt ned. Dette betyr at selv om Amoc svekkes, kan og vil varmetransporten til de nordiske havene bli uendret – eller til og med øke.</p><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Omtrent 50 prosent av varmetransporten over Grønland-Skottland-ryggen og inn i de nordiske hav <a aria-label=\"er horisontal\" class=\"opinion hyperion-css-1raymq9\" href=\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020RG000725\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\" data-test-tag=\"external-link\">er horisontal</a>. Dette er varmt atlantisk vann som strømmer langs norskekysten, avkjøles og strømmer sørover – i overflaten. </p><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Denne sirkulasjonen er drevet av vind og tilførsel av ferskvann og er helt uavhengig av omveltningen (Amoc). Den vinddrevne sirkulasjonen vil i fremtiden sannsynligvis ikke endre seg i stor grad, selv om den varierer både gjennom året og fra år til år.</p><div class=\"opinion extendedContent paywall hyperion-css-15ic3dq\"><blockquote data-test-tag=\"blockquote\" class=\"hyperion-css-qsvb07\">Selv om Amoc svekkes, kan og vil varmetransporten til de nordiske havene bli uendret – eller til og med øke</blockquote></div><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Strømmen av ferske og kalde vannmasser sørover nær Grønland holder seg der på grunn av Jordens rotasjon. Disse ferske vannmassene er i hovedsak arktisk elvevann som blandes med saltere vann under, og dermed også driver innstrømning av varmt vann.</p><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Avkjøling og nedsynking av varmt atlantisk vann er den delen som er relatert til omveltningen (Amoc). Vi oseanografer kaller dette vannmassetransformasjon – eller produksjon av tunge vannmasser. Med den pågående oppvarmingen har det allerede vært en betydelig reduksjon i produksjonen av de tyngste vannmassene i Grønlandshavet. <a aria-label=\"Dette startet i 1985\" class=\"opinion hyperion-css-1raymq9\" href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661124001101\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\" data-test-tag=\"external-link\">Dette startet i 1985</a>, og siden den gang har det vært en jevn transport og økt varmetransport mot de nordiske havene – på grunn av oppvarmingen.</p><h2 class=\"paywall hyperion-css-npxxyf\" data-test-tag=\"paragraph-header\">Mye å bekymre seg for</h2><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Store klimaendringer pågår allerede, og det er mye å bekymre seg for. Oppmerksomhet rundt at Golfstrømmen kan stoppe fører imidlertid bare til en avsporing fra de virkelig presserende problemene havet står overfor: oppvarming, havstigning og forsuring.</p><div class=\"advertory-aftenposten-netboard-wrapper__article \"><div id=\"brandboard\" class=\"advertory-aftenposten-netboard__article\"></div></div><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Den pågående oppvarmingen av havet og luften venter vi vil minke produksjonen av tyngre vannmasser. Varmere vann har mindre tetthet og synker i mindre grad. Dette simuleres også av FNs klimapanels modeller. Det er ventet at omveltningen (Amoc) vil bli redusert med 30–40 prosent frem til år 2100. </p><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Det pågår mye ny forskning som skal gi oss mer informasjon om dette, og i 2026 starter også det store norske <a aria-label=\"«Polhavet 2050»\" class=\"opinion hyperion-css-1raymq9\" href=\"https://uit.no/polhavet2050\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\" data-test-tag=\"external-link\">«Polhavet 2050»</a>-prosjektet opp. Men allerede peker studier på at redusert sjøis i Arktis har en stabiliserende effekt. Dette betyr at selv om havets avkjøling pr. areal reduseres, vil dette kompenseres fordi det er et større areal av havet som kjøles ned i fremtiden.</p><div class=\"opinion extendedContent paywall hyperion-css-15ic3dq\"><blockquote data-test-tag=\"blockquote\" class=\"hyperion-css-qsvb07\">Allerede peker studier på at redusert sjøis i Arktis har en stabiliserende effekt</blockquote></div><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Den ferskvannsdrevne delen av ut- og innstrømningen vil også øke i fremtiden. Dette er fordi når luften varmes opp, holder den på mer fuktighet, og med global oppvarming venter vi mer regn i våte områder og mer fordampning i tørrere regioner. Denne endringen i den hydrologiske syklusen vil derfor også føre til mer elvevann i Polhavet og en relatert økning i volumtransport ut og inn. Gitt en videre oppvarming får vi derfor et bidrag til økt varmetransport.</p><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Amoc er derfor ikke et godt mål på fremtidige endringer i Skandinavia. </p><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Medienes overskrifter om «Golfstrømmen» er som regel rettet mot en plutselig avkjøling for Nord-Europa eller Skandinavia. Dette er en farlig forenkling. </p><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Det mest sannsynlige fremtidsscenarioet er en økning i varmetransport mot de nordiske havene til tross for en reduksjon i Amoc. </p><h2 class=\"paywall hyperion-css-npxxyf\" data-test-tag=\"paragraph-header\">De viktigste rådene</h2><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Konseptet Amoc representerer den vertikale transportstyrken i Atlanterhavet og ser havet som et transportbånd. Dette ble introdusert som et hjelpemiddel for å forstå global sirkulasjon, en verdi som er nyttig for å sammenligne simuleringer av havet. Dette konseptet er imidlertid ganske abstrakt og sier ingenting om hvordan den horisontale delen av sirkulasjonen vil utvikle seg i fremtiden. </p><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Dette Amoc-konseptet har dessverre fått for mye oppmerksomhet og forvirrer i diskusjonen om klima og havsirkulasjon, spesielt i mediene, men også i vitenskapelig litteratur.</p><figure data-test-tag=\"image\" class=\"image extendedContent stretch-image-asset-on-mobile landscape hyperion-css-1dzjuby\"><img class=\"image-asset hyperion-css-u06ts1\" data-test-tag=\"image-asset\" src=\"https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1152&amp;w=2048&amp;s=8dfd71f2b3e3c84c19cb1be37e6a7df57aad81ce\" srcSet=\"https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1152&amp;w=2048&amp;s=8dfd71f2b3e3c84c19cb1be37e6a7df57aad81ce 2048w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=810&amp;w=1440&amp;s=bb54f87c79c6d4fed3c5ad0900499f046ca2bdfe 1440w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=576&amp;w=1024&amp;s=8628d0fc3b42403805a62bc666453fecd0eea8a9 1024w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=551&amp;w=980&amp;s=800912e03fede972d78d4dba4395cb117c398bfb 980w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=439&amp;w=780&amp;s=a1068788c65742ee3122855f25f82545a9cab788 780w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=326&amp;w=580&amp;s=8b0ab6d353490ff526ffdf7c4829e3409f971ac5 580w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=214&amp;w=380&amp;s=1c479bac24aca2bdea3f34b70faebbf52739d747 380w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=113&amp;w=200&amp;s=ef9bb51116633d4e09bbc9d6109146ca6c2fe1b0 200w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=56&amp;w=100&amp;s=7fc404a4342e375a502a75efd124703ce6da8d05 100w\" alt=\"Det går mot grønn jul også i Bergen.\" sizes=\"(min-width: 380px) 980px, 100vw\" loading=\"eager\" fetchpriority=\"high\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2048 / 1152\"/><figcaption class=\"image-figcaption hyperion-css-1ksg4fz\" data-test-tag=\"image:caption\"><span class=\"image-caption\" aria-hidden=\"true\">Det går mot grønn jul også i Bergen.</span><span class=\"image-byline hyperion-css-161dy2i\"> Foto: Alf Roar Rasmussen</span></figcaption></figure><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Selv om det oseanografiske miljøet kan virke ganske splittet i dag, er vi enige om de tre viktigste havbaserte rådene til samfunnet:</p><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">1. Vi bør slutte å slippe ut CO<sub>2</sub>. Det skader biosfæren og samfunnet vårt på mange måter og på global skala.</p><div class=\"advertory-aftenposten-netboard-wrapper__article \"><div id=\"netboard_2\" class=\"advertory-aftenposten-netboard__article\"></div></div><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">2. Vi bør fortsette å observere havet. Frem til i dag har havet tatt opp mer enn 90 prosent av energien fra global oppvarming og vil være en viktig bidragsyter til fremtidig klimavariasjoner.</p><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">3. Vi bør også fortsette å forbedre modeller for å forutsi klima og vær i måneder og sesonger fremover for bedre å kunne imøtekomme en rekke samfunnsbehov.</p><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">I Skandinavia har vi mange utfordringer foran oss hvis vi skal opprettholde vår nåværende høye levestandard. En brå avkjøling er ikke én av dem. </p><p class=\"paywall hyperion-css-1j42uic\">Vi har dessverre mange grønne juler foran oss.</p></article><div id=\"brandmetrics-survey\" class=\"advertory-brandmetrics-survey\"></div><div class=\"hyperion-css-1lkfsxc\"><button aria-label=\"Vis kommentarer\" title=\"Vis kommentarer\" type=\"button\" class=\"hyperion-css-1q6qqhb\"> <!-- -->Vis<!-- --> <!-- -->kommentarer</button></div><div class=\"hyperion-css-1yxx8oe\"><div class=\"hyperion-css-1jbnpry\"><button type=\"button\" title=\"Kopier URL til utklippstavle\" aria-label=\"Kopier URL til utklippstavle\" class=\"hyperion-css-pdsgro\">Kopier lenke</button><a data-test-tag=\"internal-link\" href=\"/tips\" class=\"hyperion-css-1f62hkp\" rel=\"\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"Tips oss\">Tips oss</a></div></div><div id=\"widget-recirculation-matrix\" class=\"extendedContent paywall hyperion-css-177q39v\"><h2 class=\"hyperion-css-r57xc5\" data-test-tag=\"widget:title\">Les videre</h2><div class=\"bundle extendedContent hyperion-css-cbecqi\"><ol class=\"hyperion-css-1700tdj\"><li class=\"hyperion-css-1lcs599\"><a data-test-tag=\"teaser-medium:link-internal\" href=\"/meninger/kronikk/i/QJlPPR/hva-skjer-med-vinteren-arbeidet-med-boken-slik-blir-det-nye-norske-vaeret-ga-meg-et-fundamentalt-sjokk\" class=\"imagePosition-top medium opinion-teaser hyperion-css-bvr9ut\" rel=\"\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"Arbeidet med boken «Slik blir det nye norske været» ga meg et fundamentalt sjokk\"><div class=\"hyperion-css-bjn8wh\"><div class=\"hyperion-css-1k8sl4j\"><img class=\"image-asset hyperion-css-n6kkq1\" data-test-tag=\"image-asset\" src=\"https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/260b3273-941e-4a14-88c4-4519997cff7b?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1536&amp;w=2048&amp;s=633cfe13aa1b8bd65076cc3ab9c3bb060ebc0dce\" srcSet=\"https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/260b3273-941e-4a14-88c4-4519997cff7b?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1536&amp;w=2048&amp;s=633cfe13aa1b8bd65076cc3ab9c3bb060ebc0dce 2048w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/260b3273-941e-4a14-88c4-4519997cff7b?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1080&amp;w=1440&amp;s=0fb50cbac1261005568125631d22b4f8ecf7849c 1440w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/260b3273-941e-4a14-88c4-4519997cff7b?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=768&amp;w=1024&amp;s=b83b5769cb33a2ea67bf63377cc26834de031b03 1024w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/260b3273-941e-4a14-88c4-4519997cff7b?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=735&amp;w=980&amp;s=221ea07408f844880fe0ba2b19cf64612be12e8e 980w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/260b3273-941e-4a14-88c4-4519997cff7b?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=585&amp;w=780&amp;s=9bc5cf36751adf7f038a169ef77e6ab6660495b1 780w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/260b3273-941e-4a14-88c4-4519997cff7b?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=435&amp;w=580&amp;s=0f5258096d72a02f0971dbafb18fb89d72deb2b2 580w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/260b3273-941e-4a14-88c4-4519997cff7b?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=285&amp;w=380&amp;s=e4bac813718163b27497df7c2425cc6500e4f0e5 380w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/260b3273-941e-4a14-88c4-4519997cff7b?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=150&amp;w=200&amp;s=c7c240800ec44b2708e47ef9a8f41b970723e363 200w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/260b3273-941e-4a14-88c4-4519997cff7b?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=75&amp;w=100&amp;s=e7a3a13a16ae78193afb55498f8fc0fb4f849c35 100w\" alt=\"\" sizes=\"(min-width: 981px) 980px, 100vw\" loading=\"lazy\" fetchpriority=\"auto\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2048 / 1536\"/></div></div><div class=\"hyperion-css-1hlrz9z\"><div class=\"teaser-label hyperion-css-52yh2p\">KRONIKK<div class=\"timestamp friendly hyperion-css-10eh1jy\" data-test-tag=\"timestamp\"><span class=\"hyperion-css-ea91rp\">Publisert:</span><div><time itemProp=\"datePublished\" dateTime=\"2025-12-10T19:40:24Z\" aria-label=\"2025-12-10T19:40:24Z\" pubdate=\"pubdate\">10. desember</time></div></div></div><div class=\"opinion hyperion-css-1ucd1we\"><h2 class=\"hyperion-css-1hyuqep\">Arbeidet med boken «Slik blir det nye norske været» ga meg et fundamentalt sjokk</h2></div></div></a></li><li class=\"hyperion-css-1lcs599\"><a data-test-tag=\"teaser-medium:link-internal\" href=\"/meninger/kronikk/i/3MLM9q/kronikk-av-brasils-president-om-klimatoppmoetet-tiden-for-erklaeringer-om-gode-intensjoner-er-forbi\" class=\"imagePosition-top medium opinion-teaser hyperion-css-bvr9ut\" rel=\"\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"Tiden for erklæringer om gode intensjoner er forbi\"><div class=\"hyperion-css-bjn8wh\"><div class=\"hyperion-css-1k8sl4j\"><img class=\"image-asset hyperion-css-ujv6\" data-test-tag=\"image-asset\" src=\"https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/c89dae99-3c6e-4295-ba1e-6a141737986a?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1536&amp;w=2048&amp;s=0a4b9e1a403e3d6d8fba81d9a940f09dc4202332\" srcSet=\"https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/c89dae99-3c6e-4295-ba1e-6a141737986a?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1536&amp;w=2048&amp;s=0a4b9e1a403e3d6d8fba81d9a940f09dc4202332 2048w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/c89dae99-3c6e-4295-ba1e-6a141737986a?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1080&amp;w=1440&amp;s=ce61e4f9ab86d49d3d6c15a23011783a24e59336 1440w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/c89dae99-3c6e-4295-ba1e-6a141737986a?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=768&amp;w=1024&amp;s=007a16d329cd5c20d085b87b25152ebf5ed2437f 1024w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/c89dae99-3c6e-4295-ba1e-6a141737986a?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=735&amp;w=980&amp;s=8dda452c2a4f568f112328ade4ad0673e6a39c8d 980w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/c89dae99-3c6e-4295-ba1e-6a141737986a?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=585&amp;w=780&amp;s=64e1dc80b805c0084d88cacf28351a5b8c6fe7a6 780w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/c89dae99-3c6e-4295-ba1e-6a141737986a?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=435&amp;w=580&amp;s=67f6cea4a14da4eeef83741bee0f4195d52ad3e9 580w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/c89dae99-3c6e-4295-ba1e-6a141737986a?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=285&amp;w=380&amp;s=b6d58efc4372bed24c7b4714aba8f18e1f0582ad 380w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/c89dae99-3c6e-4295-ba1e-6a141737986a?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=150&amp;w=200&amp;s=dad8970f447aeb4867850d9c0748763ddcee3b1b 200w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/c89dae99-3c6e-4295-ba1e-6a141737986a?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=75&amp;w=100&amp;s=bdff3f8ed04986a11c538945b84964e03dfa1e4f 100w\" alt=\"\" sizes=\"(min-width: 981px) 980px, 100vw\" loading=\"lazy\" fetchpriority=\"auto\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2048 / 1536\"/></div></div><div class=\"hyperion-css-1hlrz9z\"><div class=\"teaser-label hyperion-css-52yh2p\">KRONIKK<div class=\"timestamp friendly hyperion-css-10eh1jy\" data-test-tag=\"timestamp\"><span class=\"hyperion-css-ea91rp\">Publisert:</span><div><time itemProp=\"datePublished\" dateTime=\"2025-11-06T06:06:10Z\" aria-label=\"2025-11-06T06:06:10Z\" pubdate=\"pubdate\">6. november</time></div></div></div><div class=\"opinion hyperion-css-1ucd1we\"><h2 class=\"hyperion-css-1hyuqep\">Tiden for erklæringer om gode intensjoner er forbi</h2></div></div></a></li><li class=\"hyperion-css-1lcs599\"><div class=\"advertory-aftenposten-netboard-wrapper \"><div id=\"netboard_recirc\" class=\"advertory-aftenposten-netboard\"></div></div></li><li class=\"hyperion-css-1lcs599\"><a data-test-tag=\"teaser-medium:link-internal\" href=\"/meninger/kronikk/i/JO1RXJ/er-kontraere-stemmer-blitt-marginalisert-i-den-norske-ukraina-debatten-jeg-har-undersoekt\" class=\"imagePosition-top medium opinion-teaser hyperion-css-bvr9ut\" rel=\"\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"Hvor ofte kan et angivelig undertrykt synspunkt fremføres – og fortsatt bli omtalt som undertrykt?\"><div class=\"hyperion-css-bjn8wh\"><div class=\"hyperion-css-1k8sl4j\"><img class=\"image-asset hyperion-css-17wh6uo\" data-test-tag=\"image-asset\" src=\"https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/9adec016-5c5a-4b87-90d7-77b85b04391f?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1536&amp;w=2048&amp;s=483450e7cfe60ad51cdb34c05792a56fd87ccd0a\" srcSet=\"https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/9adec016-5c5a-4b87-90d7-77b85b04391f?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1536&amp;w=2048&amp;s=483450e7cfe60ad51cdb34c05792a56fd87ccd0a 2048w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/9adec016-5c5a-4b87-90d7-77b85b04391f?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=1080&amp;w=1440&amp;s=6cd7d1396ebba4015f5ad26d54736acacd5efd9d 1440w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/9adec016-5c5a-4b87-90d7-77b85b04391f?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=768&amp;w=1024&amp;s=bc11e6c30fb30874b11fa93f5ccf61426e911a10 1024w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/9adec016-5c5a-4b87-90d7-77b85b04391f?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=735&amp;w=980&amp;s=247868c8993f6ef912046e6b1d81c695cd48cb7e 980w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/9adec016-5c5a-4b87-90d7-77b85b04391f?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=585&amp;w=780&amp;s=2b79485c278075ca36d074211a70e5fe73e73560 780w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/9adec016-5c5a-4b87-90d7-77b85b04391f?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=435&amp;w=580&amp;s=7c6b30aaf2e5381fab3a255cac6dc5b13125327a 580w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/9adec016-5c5a-4b87-90d7-77b85b04391f?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=285&amp;w=380&amp;s=4139d705cbdcd11a28d7be7c7915e0fd545da6ef 380w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/9adec016-5c5a-4b87-90d7-77b85b04391f?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=150&amp;w=200&amp;s=bd95fbaaf92e77b7b3a0bae4bfa94a75ff68bc91 200w,https://premium.vgc.no/v2/images/9adec016-5c5a-4b87-90d7-77b85b04391f?fit=crop&amp;format=auto&amp;h=75&amp;w=100&amp;s=4704945f8c5c931f94b50ee6b4c5c21586a02496 100w\" alt=\"\" sizes=\"(min-width: 981px) 980px, 100vw\" loading=\"lazy\" fetchpriority=\"auto\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2048 / 1536\"/></div></div><div class=\"hyperion-css-1hlrz9z\"><div class=\"teaser-label hyperion-css-52yh2p\">KRONIKK<div class=\"timestamp friendly hyperion-css-10eh1jy\" data-test-tag=\"timestamp\"><span class=\"hyperion-css-ea91rp\">Publisert:</span><div><time itemProp=\"datePublished\" dateTime=\"2025-12-14T12:07:44Z\" aria-label=\"2025-12-14T12:07:44Z\" pubdate=\"pubdate\">14. desember</time></div></div></div><div class=\"opinion hyperion-css-1ucd1we\"><h2 class=\"hyperion-css-1hyuqep\">Hvor ofte kan et angivelig undertrykt synspunkt fremføres – og fortsatt bli omtalt som undertrykt?</h2></div></div></a></li></ol></div></div><div id=\"widget-inline-list\" class=\"extendedContent paywall hyperion-css-1wv24dq\"><div class=\"bundle hyperion-css-6nuwex\"><ol class=\"hyperion-css-19mvxvm\"><li class=\"hyperion-css-1og0r8\"><a data-test-tag=\"internal-link\" href=\"/tag/golfstroemmen\" class=\"hyperion-css-vpoaev\" rel=\"\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"Golfstrømmen\"><span class=\"hyperion-css-0\">Golfstrømmen</span></a></li><li class=\"hyperion-css-1og0r8\"><a data-test-tag=\"internal-link\" href=\"/tag/oppvarming\" class=\"hyperion-css-vpoaev\" rel=\"\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"Oppvarming\"><span class=\"hyperion-css-0\">Oppvarming</span></a></li><li class=\"hyperion-css-1og0r8\"><a data-test-tag=\"internal-link\" href=\"/tag/havet\" class=\"hyperion-css-vpoaev\" rel=\"\" target=\"\" aria-label=\"Havet\"><span class=\"hyperion-css-0\">Havet</span></a></li></ol></div></div><div class=\"advertory-aftenposten-netboard-wrapper__article \"><div id=\"netboard_5\" class=\"advertory-aftenposten-netboard__article\"></div></div><div class=\"observer-placeholder\"><noscript></noscript></div><div class=\"hyperion-css-1q3hux1\"><button aria-label=\"Tilbake til forsiden\" title=\"Tilbake til forsiden\" type=\"button\" class=\"hyperion-css-1t4sy44\">Tilbake til forsiden</button></div><div class=\"advertory-aftenposten-netboard-wrapper__article 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Vi har mange grønne juler foran oss, skriver professor Lars H. Smedsrud.\"},\"byline\":{\"title\":\"Foto: Jan T. Espedal\"},\"imageAsset\":{\"id\":\"8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef\",\"size\":{\"width\":7630,\"height\":5102},\"urls\":[{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&format=auto&h=1369&w=2048&s=795821edf459dee1a8bcebbad1fca0514cdbcabe\",\"width\":2048,\"height\":1369},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&format=auto&h=963&w=1440&s=665ef40c5002c83b6b4e74a4bb66778c0df49ff4\",\"width\":1440,\"height\":963},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&format=auto&h=685&w=1024&s=55fd816a28ed1db562c7fd239003eb8a8638d4c5\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":685},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&format=auto&h=655&w=980&s=94c7a84a69cf088420153d799f5a16f979d418a0\",\"width\":980,\"height\":655},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&format=auto&h=522&w=780&s=ef38824e73668a6b4025c711aad4535f0a29403d\",\"width\":780,\"height\":522},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&format=auto&h=388&w=580&s=00c4537b4aecc8bc29182a476235b21530fb3f2a\",\"width\":580,\"height\":388},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&format=auto&h=254&w=380&s=89f3668c58a769466fe5dc38ba43cce24d0fdd1c\",\"width\":380,\"height\":254},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&format=auto&h=134&w=200&s=546ef15b108f297a92a3470473ad737543d587cd\",\"width\":200,\"height\":134},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F8109be60-9afb-4b6c-8b7f-7b6ffe3d47ef?fit=crop&format=auto&h=67&w=100&s=3403f5a93d005105b3e437639cb8c4fa07c22cc8\",\"width\":100,\"height\":67}]},\"characteristics\":{\"figure\":false,\"sensitive\":false},\"type\":\"image\",\"top\":true,\"lazy\":false,\"layout\":\"fullWidthDesktop\"},\"text-lead\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"I Skandinavia har vi mange utfordringer foran oss hvis vi skal opprettholde vår høye nåværende levestandard. En brå avkjøling er ikke en av dem.\"},\"subtype\":\"lead\",\"layout\":\"contentWidth\"},\"text-timestamp\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"subtype\":\"timestamp\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Publisert: 16.12.2025 09:49\",\"markup\":[]},\"friendly\":false,\"top\":true,\"showPublished\":true,\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\",\"lazy\":false},\"newsletter-signup\":{\"type\":\"newsletter-signup\",\"newsletterPublication\":\"ap\",\"newsletterId\":\"ba1a0e9b-996c-46bb-9ec7-8ac5c851fdc8\",\"newsletterName\":\"Se. Lese. Høre. Gjøre.\",\"newsletterDescription\":\"Debattredaktør Erik Tornes sender deg de mest interessante anmeldelsene og debattene.\",\"newsletterSignupMessage\":\"Takk, din påmelding er registrert. Administrer dine nyhetsbrev på \\\"Min side\\\".\",\"needsSubscription\":false,\"secondaryNewsletter\":{\"newsletterPublication\":\"ap\",\"newsletterId\":\"5272064d-7078-4c71-bfcd-08c95f5a507e\",\"newsletterName\":\"Morgenbrief\",\"newsletterDescription\":\"Få en kjapp oversikt over de største nyhetene, rett i innboksen, hver morgen.\",\"needsSubscription\":false},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"article-marker-content-start\":{\"type\":\"article-marker\",\"subtype\":\"content-start\",\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Vi hører ofte at Golfstrømmen plutselig kan stoppe opp, og at Nord-Europa eller Skandinavia kan oppleve en brå nedkjøling på grunn av endringer i havsirkulasjonen i Atlanteren. Det stemmer ikke.\"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-0\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Frykten for en «kollaps» av omveltningen i Atlanterhavet (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – Amoc) dukker opp i mediene og noen kretser i klimaforskningsmiljøet med jevne mellomrom. Selv om det teoretisk sett ikke er mulig å utelukke et svært usannsynlig fremtidsscenario, formidles minst én alvorlig misforståelse. \",\"markup\":[{\"type\":\"link:external\",\"offset\":123,\"length\":7,\"uri\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fwww.nrk.no\\u002Fklima\\u002Ffrykter-temperaturer-ned-mot-minus-50-i-oslo-om-amoc-forsvinner-1.17454602\",\"relationships\":[\"nofollow\",\"noreferrer\"]}]},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-heading\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Varmetransporten forblir uendret – eller øker\"},\"subtype\":\"heading\",\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-1\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"En «kollaps», eller rettere sagt en stor reduksjon, er ikke knyttet til en lignende reduksjon i varmetransporten mot de nordiske hav. Varmetransport i havet avhenger både av hvor mye vann som føres nordover, og av hvor mye det blir kjølt ned. Dette betyr at selv om Amoc svekkes, kan og vil varmetransporten til de nordiske havene bli uendret – eller til og med øke.\"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-2\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Omtrent 50 prosent av varmetransporten over Grønland-Skottland-ryggen og inn i de nordiske hav er horisontal. Dette er varmt atlantisk vann som strømmer langs norskekysten, avkjøles og strømmer sørover – i overflaten. \",\"markup\":[{\"type\":\"link:external\",\"offset\":95,\"length\":13,\"uri\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fagupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\\u002Fdoi\\u002F10.1029\\u002F2020RG000725\",\"relationships\":[\"nofollow\",\"noreferrer\"]}]},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-3\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Denne sirkulasjonen er drevet av vind og tilførsel av ferskvann og er helt uavhengig av omveltningen (Amoc). Den vinddrevne sirkulasjonen vil i fremtiden sannsynligvis ikke endre seg i stor grad, selv om den varierer både gjennom året og fra år til år.\"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-blockquote\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Selv om Amoc svekkes, kan og vil varmetransporten til de nordiske havene bli uendret – eller til og med øke\"},\"subtype\":\"blockquote\",\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\",\"layout\":\"extendedContent\"},\"text-4\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Strømmen av ferske og kalde vannmasser sørover nær Grønland holder seg der på grunn av Jordens rotasjon. Disse ferske vannmassene er i hovedsak arktisk elvevann som blandes med saltere vann under, og dermed også driver innstrømning av varmt vann.\"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-5\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Avkjøling og nedsynking av varmt atlantisk vann er den delen som er relatert til omveltningen (Amoc). Vi oseanografer kaller dette vannmassetransformasjon – eller produksjon av tunge vannmasser. Med den pågående oppvarmingen har det allerede vært en betydelig reduksjon i produksjonen av de tyngste vannmassene i Grønlandshavet. Dette startet i 1985, og siden den gang har det vært en jevn transport og økt varmetransport mot de nordiske havene – på grunn av oppvarmingen.\",\"markup\":[{\"type\":\"link:external\",\"offset\":329,\"length\":20,\"uri\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fwww.sciencedirect.com\\u002Fscience\\u002Farticle\\u002Fpii\\u002FS0079661124001101\",\"relationships\":[\"nofollow\",\"noreferrer\"]}]},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-heading-6\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Mye å bekymre seg for\"},\"subtype\":\"heading\",\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-7\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Store klimaendringer pågår allerede, og det er mye å bekymre seg for. Oppmerksomhet rundt at Golfstrømmen kan stoppe fører imidlertid bare til en avsporing fra de virkelig presserende problemene havet står overfor: oppvarming, havstigning og forsuring.\"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-8\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Den pågående oppvarmingen av havet og luften venter vi vil minke produksjonen av tyngre vannmasser. Varmere vann har mindre tetthet og synker i mindre grad. Dette simuleres også av FNs klimapanels modeller. Det er ventet at omveltningen (Amoc) vil bli redusert med 30–40 prosent frem til år 2100. \"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-9\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Det pågår mye ny forskning som skal gi oss mer informasjon om dette, og i 2026 starter også det store norske «Polhavet 2050»-prosjektet opp. Men allerede peker studier på at redusert sjøis i Arktis har en stabiliserende effekt. Dette betyr at selv om havets avkjøling pr. areal reduseres, vil dette kompenseres fordi det er et større areal av havet som kjøles ned i fremtiden.\",\"markup\":[{\"type\":\"link:external\",\"offset\":109,\"length\":15,\"uri\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fuit.no\\u002Fpolhavet2050\",\"relationships\":[\"nofollow\",\"noreferrer\"]}]},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-blockquote-10\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Allerede peker studier på at redusert sjøis i Arktis har en stabiliserende effekt\"},\"subtype\":\"blockquote\",\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\",\"layout\":\"extendedContent\"},\"text-11\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Den ferskvannsdrevne delen av ut- og innstrømningen vil også øke i fremtiden. Dette er fordi når luften varmes opp, holder den på mer fuktighet, og med global oppvarming venter vi mer regn i våte områder og mer fordampning i tørrere regioner. Denne endringen i den hydrologiske syklusen vil derfor også føre til mer elvevann i Polhavet og en relatert økning i volumtransport ut og inn. Gitt en videre oppvarming får vi derfor et bidrag til økt varmetransport.\"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-12\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Amoc er derfor ikke et godt mål på fremtidige endringer i Skandinavia. \"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-13\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Medienes overskrifter om «Golfstrømmen» er som regel rettet mot en plutselig avkjøling for Nord-Europa eller Skandinavia. Dette er en farlig forenkling. \"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-14\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Det mest sannsynlige fremtidsscenarioet er en økning i varmetransport mot de nordiske havene til tross for en reduksjon i Amoc. \"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-heading-15\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"De viktigste rådene\"},\"subtype\":\"heading\",\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-16\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Konseptet Amoc representerer den vertikale transportstyrken i Atlanterhavet og ser havet som et transportbånd. Dette ble introdusert som et hjelpemiddel for å forstå global sirkulasjon, en verdi som er nyttig for å sammenligne simuleringer av havet. Dette konseptet er imidlertid ganske abstrakt og sier ingenting om hvordan den horisontale delen av sirkulasjonen vil utvikle seg i fremtiden. \"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-17\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Dette Amoc-konseptet har dessverre fått for mye oppmerksomhet og forvirrer i diskusjonen om klima og havsirkulasjon, spesielt i mediene, men også i vitenskapelig litteratur.\"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"image-18\":{\"caption\":{\"value\":\"Det går mot grønn jul også i Bergen.\"},\"byline\":{\"title\":\"Foto: Alf Roar Rasmussen\"},\"imageAsset\":{\"id\":\"778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6\",\"size\":{\"width\":4032,\"height\":2268},\"urls\":[{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&format=auto&h=1152&w=2048&s=8dfd71f2b3e3c84c19cb1be37e6a7df57aad81ce\",\"width\":2048,\"height\":1152},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&format=auto&h=810&w=1440&s=bb54f87c79c6d4fed3c5ad0900499f046ca2bdfe\",\"width\":1440,\"height\":810},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&format=auto&h=576&w=1024&s=8628d0fc3b42403805a62bc666453fecd0eea8a9\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":576},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&format=auto&h=551&w=980&s=800912e03fede972d78d4dba4395cb117c398bfb\",\"width\":980,\"height\":551},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&format=auto&h=439&w=780&s=a1068788c65742ee3122855f25f82545a9cab788\",\"width\":780,\"height\":439},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&format=auto&h=326&w=580&s=8b0ab6d353490ff526ffdf7c4829e3409f971ac5\",\"width\":580,\"height\":326},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&format=auto&h=214&w=380&s=1c479bac24aca2bdea3f34b70faebbf52739d747\",\"width\":380,\"height\":214},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&format=auto&h=113&w=200&s=ef9bb51116633d4e09bbc9d6109146ca6c2fe1b0\",\"width\":200,\"height\":113},{\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fpremium.vgc.no\\u002Fv2\\u002Fimages\\u002F778b2dcb-79b7-4408-a9a2-060e86b7c3a6?fit=crop&format=auto&h=56&w=100&s=7fc404a4342e375a502a75efd124703ce6da8d05\",\"width\":100,\"height\":56}]},\"type\":\"image\",\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\",\"layout\":\"extendedContent\"},\"text-19\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"Selv om det oseanografiske miljøet kan virke ganske splittet i dag, er vi enige om de tre viktigste havbaserte rådene til samfunnet:\"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-20\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"1. Vi bør slutte å slippe ut CO2. Det skader biosfæren og samfunnet vårt på mange måter og på global skala.\",\"markup\":[{\"type\":\"style:subscript\",\"offset\":31,\"length\":1}]},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-21\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"2. Vi bør fortsette å observere havet. Frem til i dag har havet tatt opp mer enn 90 prosent av energien fra global oppvarming og vil være en viktig bidragsyter til fremtidig klimavariasjoner.\"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-22\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"3. Vi bør også fortsette å forbedre modeller for å forutsi klima og vær i måneder og sesonger fremover for bedre å kunne imøtekomme en rekke samfunnsbehov.\"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"text-23\":{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":{\"value\":\"I Skandinavia har vi mange utfordringer foran oss hvis vi skal opprettholde vår nåværende høye levestandard. 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oss.\"},\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"article-marker-end\":{\"type\":\"article-marker\",\"subtype\":\"end\",\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"widget-brand-metrics-survey\":{\"type\":\"widget\",\"subtype\":\"brand-metrics-survey\",\"key\":\"brand-metrics-survey\",\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\",\"impressionTracking\":{\"object\":{\"@id\":\"sdrn:aftenposten:article:Ar2ynz:element:brand-metrics-survey\",\"@type\":\"UIElement\",\"spt:custom\":{\"position\":{\"bundlePosition\":1,\"columnName\":\"main\"},\"layout\":{}},\"elementType\":\"Widget\",\"layout\":{},\"page\":{\"@id\":\"sdrn:aftenposten:article:Ar2ynz\",\"@type\":\"Article\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fwww.aftenposten.no\\u002Fmeninger\\u002Fkronikk\\u002Fi\\u002FAr2ynz\\u002Fkan-golfstroemmen-kollapse-paastanden-hviler-paa-minst-en-alvorlig-misforstaaelse\"},\"placement\":{\"primaryPosition\":1,\"columnName\":\"main\",\"source\":\"brand-metrics-survey\"}},\"target\":{}},\"clickTracking\":{\"object\":{\"@id\":\"sdrn:aftenposten:article:Ar2ynz:element:brand-metrics-survey\",\"@type\":\"UIElement\",\"spt:custom\":{\"position\":{\"bundlePosition\":1,\"columnName\":\"main\"},\"layout\":{}},\"elementType\":\"Widget\",\"layout\":{},\"page\":{\"@id\":\"sdrn:aftenposten:article:Ar2ynz\",\"@type\":\"Article\",\"url\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fwww.aftenposten.no\\u002Fmeninger\\u002Fkronikk\\u002Fi\\u002FAr2ynz\\u002Fkan-golfstroemmen-kollapse-paastanden-hviler-paa-minst-en-alvorlig-misforstaaelse\"},\"placement\":{\"primaryPosition\":1,\"columnName\":\"main\",\"source\":\"brand-metrics-survey\"}},\"target\":{},\"action\":\"Click\"}},\"core-comments\":{\"type\":\"core-comments\",\"newsroom\":\"ap\",\"articleId\":\"Ar2ynz\",\"contentType\":\"article\",\"appCommentsURL\":\"https:\\u002F\\u002Fcomments.aftenposten.no\\u002Fembedded-webview.html?p=ap&contentType=article&contentId=Ar2ynz&contentPublisher=ap\",\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"cta-box-cta-box-bottom\":{\"type\":\"cta-box\",\"subtype\":\"cta-box-bottom\",\"disableFreeArticleSharing\":false,\"externalClassName\":\"paywall\"},\"widget-recirculation-matrix\":{\"type\":\"widget\",\"subtype\":\"recirculation-matrix\",\"key\":\"related-articles\",\"title\":{\"value\":\"Les 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   "source_updated_at" : "2025-12-15 11:38:59",
   "summary" : "I Skandinavia har vi mange utfordringer foran oss hvis vi skal opprettholde vår høye nåværende levestandard.",
   "tags" : null,
   "title" : "I Skandinavia har vi mange utfordringer foran oss. En Golfstrøm-kollaps er ikke én av dem.",
   "twitter_title" : null,
   "version" : 1
}