Europa er i stor fare
Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.
Europa er i stor fare
Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.
Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare.
EUs kamp mot tek-oligarkene
Charlie og Ingrid Olina
Sosialisme the american way
Kommentar
Dette er en kommentar. Holdninger og meninger i teksten står for skribentens regning.
Se for deg følgende scenario. Europa 2029: Nigel Farage har blitt statsminister i Storbritannia, Marie le Pens Nasjonal Front styrer Frankrike, Alternativ for Tyskland kontrollerer Berlin, og Lov og Rett-partiet har vunnet tilbake makten i Polen. I tillegg har høyrepopulister konsolidert makten i resten av sentral- og Øst-Europa, fra Østerrike til Tsjekkia, Slovakia, Ungarn, Romania, Moldova og Bulgaria.
Parallelt med dette har europeisk økonomi blitt kraftig svekket, det er sterk sosial uro knyttet til store flyktningstrømmer, og organisert kriminalitet med utgangspunkt i Russland festet et jerngrep over store deler av kontinentet.
Er dette kun et teoretisk mareritt scenario eller en realistisk mulighet? Jeg frykter at det dessverre er et fullt mulig utfall av dagens europeiske politikk – inkludert den norske.
Sakens kjerne er Ukraina. Utmattelseskrigen med Russland er i ferd med å tippe i sistnevntes favør. De tar litt og litt land, de ødelegger strøm, vann, veier og jernbane, de terroriserer den ukrainske sivilbefolkningen hver eneste dag. Med dagens nivå på vestlig støtte til Ukraina vil landet neppe klare å stå imot den russiske aggresjonen over tid. Det man bidrar med nå vil i så fall være fullstendig bortkastet fordi det ikke er tilstrekkelig til å stanse Russland. Det bidrar i stedet til en mer langsom død.
Hva vil skje om Russland fortsetter å kverne seg fram? NUPI legger i dag fram en rapport som har regnet på to scenarioer. Ett hvor Russland vinner fram og ødelegger Ukrainas framtidsutsikter, og ett hvor Ukraina klarer å få et visst overtak og overlever som et selvstendig, demokratisk land. I det første scenarioet vil det blant annet føre til at flere mennesker flykter fra Ukraina. Om Russland for eksempel klarer å ta seg fram mot Dnipro-eleven, og samtidig gjøre hele landet til en krigssone der det er vanskelig å bo, vil det raskt kunne komme 4–6 millioner nye flyktninger. Bare de økonomiske utgiftene til dette vil langt overgå det som gis i militær støtte fra Europa i dag. I tillegg vil det høyst sannsynlig skape sosial og politisk uro i land som Polen, Tyskland, og øst-Europeiske land.
Videre vil et Ukraina i unntakstilstand gradvis erodere sine relativt svake demokratiske institusjoner. Økonomien er også unormal, med store summer som kommer inn gjennom utenlandske donorer i stedet for gjennom skatter, avgifter og økonomisk vekst. Organisert kriminalitet stortrives under slike forhold – og den foregår på tvers av landegrenser. Russiske og ukrainske kriminelle har ingen samarbeidsproblemer. Politikk og organisert kriminalitet blir fortere sammenvevd i slike situasjoner, og kan utgjøre en symbiose som kan være svært nyttig for Kreml. Oppildnet av fremgang i Ukraina kan Moskva søke å svekke ikke bare det ukrainske demokratiet, men også Moldova, Romania, Serbia og så videre. Dette har vi jo allerede sett at de forsøker. Men med fremgang i Ukraina er sjansene mye større for at de lykkes. Påvirkningsoperasjoner og innblanding i valg er enklere når det er stor sosial misnøye i befolkningen.
Som om ikke dette var nok, skal man absolutt ikke se bort ifra at Washington i en slik situasjon vil se med sympatiske øyne på det Russland gjør. Donald Trump og visepresident J D Vance støtter jo åpenlyst de høyreradikale partiene i Europa. Trump har jo også en tendens til å snu kappen etter vinden og støtte de han antar er i medvind – i dette tilfellet Russland.
Europa er etter mitt skjønn i stor fare, og om ikke europeiske politikere viser handlekraft kan det gå riktig ille. Den gode nyheten er at det er fullt mulig og egentlig ikke så politisk krevende å hindre en slik utvikling. Det er det NUPI-rapporten beskriver som scenario 2. Men det fordrer at man er villig til å ta litt mer sjanser, og tenke langsiktig og strategisk.
For det første må man si rett ut at målet er at Ukraina skal vinne krigen. Man må slutte med vage formuleringer som at man er «med Ukraina i hundre år» eller «så lenge som det trengs» – for det blir ingen forhandling med Putin før han ser seg tjent med å avslutte krigen. Med slike vage formuleringer blir også innsatsen halvhjertet. Ukrainsk seier betyr ikke full gjenerobring av alt okkupert land, men at staten overlever, og at man er sterk nok militært til å stanse de pågående angrepene.
For det andre bør Europa meisle ut en egen strategi for å oppnå denne seieren på en måte som involverer og inkluderer USA, men som ikke er avhengig av USAs ressurser for å lykkes. Men det er fortsatt avgjørende å holde USA «inne», det vil si på Europa og Ukrainas side og ikke Russlands, all den tid dette dreier seg om Europas framtid, ikke bare Ukrainas.
For det tredje må Europa bidra langt mer. Her må man snarest finne en måte å frigjøre de frosne russiske sentralbankmidlene på. Ukraina trenger mye mer penger slik at de kan øke produksjonskapasiteten i egen forsvarsindustri, og samtidig kjøpe de våpnene de trenger.
Norge må også gjøre mye mer. Det aller viktigste regjeringen kan gjøre er å bruke vår oljeformue på en strategisk måte. Dagens Nansen-pakke er bra den, men burde vært langt større. Det er fullt mulig innenfor handlingsregelen. Samtidig burde regjeringen funnet smarte måter å kunne bidra med oljefondet uten at det politiseres. Økonomer og andre eksperter har foreslått flere løsninger, som å garantere for lånet knyttet til de frosne russiske midlene, eller å lage et eget forsvarsfond. Det fordrer kreativ tenkning i Finansdepartementet.
Det er vanskelig å sette en prislapp på risikoen ved en ukrainsk kollaps, men alternativet kan være tidenes beste investering i vår – og neste generasjons – fremtid, velferd og sikkerhet. Poenget i NUPI-rapporten er at det blir veldig mye dyrere å la Russland vinne fremfor å investere i en ukrainsk seier.
Alternativet til at Europa – og Norge – tar seg sammen, er svært dystert. Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare, men denne utviklingen kan stanses av visjonære politikere som tør å stå fram. Hvem tar ballen?
Få nyhetsbrev fra Dagsavisen. Meld deg på her!
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Article Version History (4 versions)
This article has been updated since it was first fetched. Below are all versions:
Version 4
Current
2025-11-18 09:53:28
Europa er i stor fare
UPDATE
Author: Karsten Friis
Published: 2025-11-11 05:00:00
Updated: 2025-11-11 05:00:00
📝 Summary
Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.
📄 Full Content (6906 chars)
Europa er i stor fare
Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.
Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare.
EUs kamp mot tek-oligarkene
Charlie og Ingrid Olina
Sosialisme the american way
Kommentar
Dette er en kommentar. Holdninger og meninger i teksten står for skribentens regning.
Se for deg følgende scenario. Europa 2029: Nigel Farage har blitt statsminister i Storbritannia, Marie le Pens Nasjonal Front styrer Frankrike, Alternativ for Tyskland kontrollerer Berlin, og Lov og Rett-partiet har vunnet tilbake makten i Polen. I tillegg har høyrepopulister konsolidert makten i resten av sentral- og Øst-Europa, fra Østerrike til Tsjekkia, Slovakia, Ungarn, Romania, Moldova og Bulgaria.
Parallelt med dette har europeisk økonomi blitt kraftig svekket, det er sterk sosial uro knyttet til store flyktningstrømmer, og organisert kriminalitet med utgangspunkt i Russland festet et jerngrep over store deler av kontinentet.
Er dette kun et teoretisk mareritt scenario eller en realistisk mulighet? Jeg frykter at det dessverre er et fullt mulig utfall av dagens europeiske politikk – inkludert den norske.
Sakens kjerne er Ukraina. Utmattelseskrigen med Russland er i ferd med å tippe i sistnevntes favør. De tar litt og litt land, de ødelegger strøm, vann, veier og jernbane, de terroriserer den ukrainske sivilbefolkningen hver eneste dag. Med dagens nivå på vestlig støtte til Ukraina vil landet neppe klare å stå imot den russiske aggresjonen over tid. Det man bidrar med nå vil i så fall være fullstendig bortkastet fordi det ikke er tilstrekkelig til å stanse Russland. Det bidrar i stedet til en mer langsom død.
Hva vil skje om Russland fortsetter å kverne seg fram? NUPI legger i dag fram en rapport som har regnet på to scenarioer. Ett hvor Russland vinner fram og ødelegger Ukrainas framtidsutsikter, og ett hvor Ukraina klarer å få et visst overtak og overlever som et selvstendig, demokratisk land. I det første scenarioet vil det blant annet føre til at flere mennesker flykter fra Ukraina. Om Russland for eksempel klarer å ta seg fram mot Dnipro-eleven, og samtidig gjøre hele landet til en krigssone der det er vanskelig å bo, vil det raskt kunne komme 4–6 millioner nye flyktninger. Bare de økonomiske utgiftene til dette vil langt overgå det som gis i militær støtte fra Europa i dag. I tillegg vil det høyst sannsynlig skape sosial og politisk uro i land som Polen, Tyskland, og øst-Europeiske land.
Videre vil et Ukraina i unntakstilstand gradvis erodere sine relativt svake demokratiske institusjoner. Økonomien er også unormal, med store summer som kommer inn gjennom utenlandske donorer i stedet for gjennom skatter, avgifter og økonomisk vekst. Organisert kriminalitet stortrives under slike forhold – og den foregår på tvers av landegrenser. Russiske og ukrainske kriminelle har ingen samarbeidsproblemer. Politikk og organisert kriminalitet blir fortere sammenvevd i slike situasjoner, og kan utgjøre en symbiose som kan være svært nyttig for Kreml. Oppildnet av fremgang i Ukraina kan Moskva søke å svekke ikke bare det ukrainske demokratiet, men også Moldova, Romania, Serbia og så videre. Dette har vi jo allerede sett at de forsøker. Men med fremgang i Ukraina er sjansene mye større for at de lykkes. Påvirkningsoperasjoner og innblanding i valg er enklere når det er stor sosial misnøye i befolkningen.
Som om ikke dette var nok, skal man absolutt ikke se bort ifra at Washington i en slik situasjon vil se med sympatiske øyne på det Russland gjør. Donald Trump og visepresident J D Vance støtter jo åpenlyst de høyreradikale partiene i Europa. Trump har jo også en tendens til å snu kappen etter vinden og støtte de han antar er i medvind – i dette tilfellet Russland.
Europa er etter mitt skjønn i stor fare, og om ikke europeiske politikere viser handlekraft kan det gå riktig ille. Den gode nyheten er at det er fullt mulig og egentlig ikke så politisk krevende å hindre en slik utvikling. Det er det NUPI-rapporten beskriver som scenario 2. Men det fordrer at man er villig til å ta litt mer sjanser, og tenke langsiktig og strategisk.
For det første må man si rett ut at målet er at Ukraina skal vinne krigen. Man må slutte med vage formuleringer som at man er «med Ukraina i hundre år» eller «så lenge som det trengs» – for det blir ingen forhandling med Putin før han ser seg tjent med å avslutte krigen. Med slike vage formuleringer blir også innsatsen halvhjertet. Ukrainsk seier betyr ikke full gjenerobring av alt okkupert land, men at staten overlever, og at man er sterk nok militært til å stanse de pågående angrepene.
For det andre bør Europa meisle ut en egen strategi for å oppnå denne seieren på en måte som involverer og inkluderer USA, men som ikke er avhengig av USAs ressurser for å lykkes. Men det er fortsatt avgjørende å holde USA «inne», det vil si på Europa og Ukrainas side og ikke Russlands, all den tid dette dreier seg om Europas framtid, ikke bare Ukrainas.
For det tredje må Europa bidra langt mer. Her må man snarest finne en måte å frigjøre de frosne russiske sentralbankmidlene på. Ukraina trenger mye mer penger slik at de kan øke produksjonskapasiteten i egen forsvarsindustri, og samtidig kjøpe de våpnene de trenger.
Norge må også gjøre mye mer. Det aller viktigste regjeringen kan gjøre er å bruke vår oljeformue på en strategisk måte. Dagens Nansen-pakke er bra den, men burde vært langt større. Det er fullt mulig innenfor handlingsregelen. Samtidig burde regjeringen funnet smarte måter å kunne bidra med oljefondet uten at det politiseres. Økonomer og andre eksperter har foreslått flere løsninger, som å garantere for lånet knyttet til de frosne russiske midlene, eller å lage et eget forsvarsfond. Det fordrer kreativ tenkning i Finansdepartementet.
Det er vanskelig å sette en prislapp på risikoen ved en ukrainsk kollaps, men alternativet kan være tidenes beste investering i vår – og neste generasjons – fremtid, velferd og sikkerhet. Poenget i NUPI-rapporten er at det blir veldig mye dyrere å la Russland vinne fremfor å investere i en ukrainsk seier.
Alternativet til at Europa – og Norge – tar seg sammen, er svært dystert. Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare, men denne utviklingen kan stanses av visjonære politikere som tør å stå fram. Hvem tar ballen?
Få nyhetsbrev fra Dagsavisen. Meld deg på her!
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"content" : "# Europa er i stor fare\n\n## Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.\n\n### Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare.\n\n## EUs kamp mot tek-oligarkene\n\n## Charlie og Ingrid Olina\n\n## Sosialisme the american way\n\nKommentar\n\nDette er en kommentar. Holdninger og meninger i teksten står for skribentens regning.\n\nSe for deg følgende scenario. Europa 2029: Nigel Farage har blitt statsminister i Storbritannia, Marie le Pens Nasjonal Front styrer Frankrike, Alternativ for Tyskland kontrollerer Berlin, og Lov og Rett-partiet har vunnet tilbake makten i Polen. I tillegg har høyrepopulister konsolidert makten i resten av sentral- og Øst-Europa, fra Østerrike til Tsjekkia, Slovakia, Ungarn, Romania, Moldova og Bulgaria.\n\nParallelt med dette har europeisk økonomi blitt kraftig svekket, det er sterk sosial uro knyttet til store flyktningstrømmer, og organisert kriminalitet med utgangspunkt i Russland festet et jerngrep over store deler av kontinentet.\n\nEr dette kun et teoretisk mareritt scenario eller en realistisk mulighet? Jeg frykter at det dessverre er et fullt mulig utfall av dagens europeiske politikk – inkludert den norske.\n\nSakens kjerne er Ukraina. Utmattelseskrigen med Russland er i ferd med å tippe i sistnevntes favør. De tar litt og litt land, de ødelegger strøm, vann, veier og jernbane, de terroriserer den ukrainske sivilbefolkningen hver eneste dag. Med dagens nivå på vestlig støtte til Ukraina vil landet neppe klare å stå imot den russiske aggresjonen over tid. Det man bidrar med nå vil i så fall være fullstendig bortkastet fordi det ikke er tilstrekkelig til å stanse Russland. Det bidrar i stedet til en mer langsom død.\n\nHva vil skje om Russland fortsetter å kverne seg fram? NUPI legger i dag fram en rapport som har regnet på to scenarioer. Ett hvor Russland vinner fram og ødelegger Ukrainas framtidsutsikter, og ett hvor Ukraina klarer å få et visst overtak og overlever som et selvstendig, demokratisk land. I det første scenarioet vil det blant annet føre til at flere mennesker flykter fra Ukraina. Om Russland for eksempel klarer å ta seg fram mot Dnipro-eleven, og samtidig gjøre hele landet til en krigssone der det er vanskelig å bo, vil det raskt kunne komme 4–6 millioner nye flyktninger. Bare de økonomiske utgiftene til dette vil langt overgå det som gis i militær støtte fra Europa i dag. I tillegg vil det høyst sannsynlig skape sosial og politisk uro i land som Polen, Tyskland, og øst-Europeiske land.\n\nVidere vil et Ukraina i unntakstilstand gradvis erodere sine relativt svake demokratiske institusjoner. Økonomien er også unormal, med store summer som kommer inn gjennom utenlandske donorer i stedet for gjennom skatter, avgifter og økonomisk vekst. Organisert kriminalitet stortrives under slike forhold – og den foregår på tvers av landegrenser. Russiske og ukrainske kriminelle har ingen samarbeidsproblemer. Politikk og organisert kriminalitet blir fortere sammenvevd i slike situasjoner, og kan utgjøre en symbiose som kan være svært nyttig for Kreml. Oppildnet av fremgang i Ukraina kan Moskva søke å svekke ikke bare det ukrainske demokratiet, men også Moldova, Romania, Serbia og så videre. Dette har vi jo allerede sett at de forsøker. Men med fremgang i Ukraina er sjansene mye større for at de lykkes. Påvirkningsoperasjoner og innblanding i valg er enklere når det er stor sosial misnøye i befolkningen.\n\nSom om ikke dette var nok, skal man absolutt ikke se bort ifra at Washington i en slik situasjon vil se med sympatiske øyne på det Russland gjør. Donald Trump og visepresident J D Vance støtter jo åpenlyst de høyreradikale partiene i Europa. Trump har jo også en tendens til å snu kappen etter vinden og støtte de han antar er i medvind – i dette tilfellet Russland.\n\nEuropa er etter mitt skjønn i stor fare, og om ikke europeiske politikere viser handlekraft kan det gå riktig ille. Den gode nyheten er at det er fullt mulig og egentlig ikke så politisk krevende å hindre en slik utvikling. Det er det NUPI-rapporten beskriver som scenario 2. Men det fordrer at man er villig til å ta litt mer sjanser, og tenke langsiktig og strategisk.\n\nFor det første må man si rett ut at målet er at Ukraina skal vinne krigen. Man må slutte med vage formuleringer som at man er «med Ukraina i hundre år» eller «så lenge som det trengs» – for det blir ingen forhandling med Putin før han ser seg tjent med å avslutte krigen. Med slike vage formuleringer blir også innsatsen halvhjertet. Ukrainsk seier betyr ikke full gjenerobring av alt okkupert land, men at staten overlever, og at man er sterk nok militært til å stanse de pågående angrepene.\n\nFor det andre bør Europa meisle ut en egen strategi for å oppnå denne seieren på en måte som involverer og inkluderer USA, men som ikke er avhengig av USAs ressurser for å lykkes. Men det er fortsatt avgjørende å holde USA «inne», det vil si på Europa og Ukrainas side og ikke Russlands, all den tid dette dreier seg om Europas framtid, ikke bare Ukrainas.\n\nFor det tredje må Europa bidra langt mer. Her må man snarest finne en måte å frigjøre de frosne russiske sentralbankmidlene på. Ukraina trenger mye mer penger slik at de kan øke produksjonskapasiteten i egen forsvarsindustri, og samtidig kjøpe de våpnene de trenger.\n\nNorge må også gjøre mye mer. Det aller viktigste regjeringen kan gjøre er å bruke vår oljeformue på en strategisk måte. Dagens Nansen-pakke er bra den, men burde vært langt større. Det er fullt mulig innenfor handlingsregelen. Samtidig burde regjeringen funnet smarte måter å kunne bidra med oljefondet uten at det politiseres. Økonomer og andre eksperter har foreslått flere løsninger, som å [garantere](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/norway-should-guarantee-eu-ukraine-loan-secured-by-russian-assets-by-havard-halland-3-and-knut-anton-mork-2025-10) for lånet knyttet til de frosne russiske midlene, eller å lage et eget [forsvarsfond](https://www.dn.no/kronikk/sikkerhetspolitikk/finans/oljefondet/oljefondet-kan-finansiere-europas-opprustning/2-1-1781171). Det fordrer kreativ tenkning i Finansdepartementet.\n\nDet er vanskelig å sette en prislapp på risikoen ved en ukrainsk kollaps, men alternativet kan være tidenes beste investering i vår – og neste generasjons – fremtid, velferd og sikkerhet. Poenget i NUPI-rapporten er at det blir veldig mye dyrere å la Russland vinne fremfor å investere i en ukrainsk seier.\n\nAlternativet til at Europa – og Norge – tar seg sammen, er svært dystert. Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare, men denne utviklingen kan stanses av visjonære politikere som tør å stå fram. Hvem tar ballen?\n\nFå nyhetsbrev fra Dagsavisen. Meld deg på [her](https://www.dagsavisen.no/om-dagsavisen/2023/12/20/fa-daglig-nyhetsbrev/)!",
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alt="Det blir veldig mye dyrere å la Russland vinne krigen fremfor å investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. På bildet ser en kvinne på en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovestad Kyiv."
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<figcaption itemprop="caption" class="">Det blir veldig mye dyrere å la Russland vinne krigen fremfor å investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. På bildet ser en kvinne på en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovedstad Kyiv.</figcaption>
<figcaption itemprop="author" class="" data-byline-prefix="">FOTO: Alina Smutko / NTB</figcaption>
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<p class="kicker t30 tertiary color_mobile_tertiary" style="">Kommentar</p>
<h1 class="headline mainTitle t104 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic" style="">Europa er i stor fare</h1>
<h2 class="subtitle t27 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic" style="">Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.</h2>
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<span class="lab-hidden-byline-name" itemprop="name">Karsten Friis</span>
<span class="firstname ">Karsten</span>
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<span class="lab-hidden-byline-name" itemprop="name">Karsten Friis</span>
<span class="description ">Forsker 1, NUPI</span>
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<span>Lesetid: <span class="read-time-value">4 min</span></span>
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<p> <span data-lab-italic="italic" class="italic m-italic">Dette er en kommentar. Holdninger og meninger i teksten stÃ¥r for skribentens regning.<br> </span></p><p>Se for deg følgende scenario. Europa 2029: Nigel Farage har blitt statsminister i Storbritannia, Marie le Pens Nasjonal Front styrer Frankrike, Alternativ for Tyskland kontrollerer Berlin, og Lov og Rett-partiet har vunnet tilbake makten i Polen. I tillegg har høyrepopulister konsolidert makten i resten av sentral- og Ãst-Europa, fra Ãsterrike til Tsjekkia, Slovakia, Ungarn, Romania, Moldova og Bulgaria.</p><p>Parallelt med dette har europeisk økonomi blitt kraftig svekket, det er sterk sosial uro knyttet til store flyktningstrømmer, og organisert kriminalitet med utgangspunkt i Russland festet et jerngrep over store deler av kontinentet.</p><div data-element-guid="6423cb22-b56e-4b00-9395-38ebd2b792f4" class="quotebox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8">
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Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare.
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<p>Er dette kun et teoretisk mareritt scenario eller en realistisk mulighet? Jeg frykter at det dessverre er et fullt mulig utfall av dagens europeiske politikk â inkludert den norske.</p><div data-element-guid="f794e30d-3963-4619-a99a-42ef01558eb3" class="column google-ad display-label widthFull" style="">
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<p>Sakens kjerne er Ukraina. Utmattelseskrigen med Russland er i ferd med å tippe i sistnevntes favør. De tar litt og litt land, de ødelegger strøm, vann, veier og jernbane, de terroriserer den ukrainske sivilbefolkningen hver eneste dag. Med dagens nivå på vestlig støtte til Ukraina vil landet neppe klare å stå imot den russiske aggresjonen over tid. Det man bidrar med nå vil i så fall være fullstendig bortkastet fordi det ikke er tilstrekkelig til å stanse Russland. Det bidrar i stedet til en mer langsom død.</p><div data-element-guid="afef610d-32cf-45ce-8b00-8c21ead212e3" id="markup_10050373" class="markupbox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8">
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<p>Hva vil skje om Russland fortsetter Ã¥ kverne seg fram? NUPI legger i dag fram en rapport som har regnet pÃ¥ to scenarioer. Ett hvor Russland vinner fram og ødelegger Ukrainas framtidsutsikter, og ett hvor Ukraina klarer Ã¥ fÃ¥ et visst overtak og overlever som et selvstendig, demokratisk land. I det første scenarioet vil det blant annet føre til at flere mennesker flykter fra Ukraina. Om Russland for eksempel klarer Ã¥ ta seg fram mot Dnipro-eleven, og samtidig gjøre hele landet til en krigssone der det er vanskelig Ã¥ bo, vil det raskt kunne komme 4â6 millioner nye flyktninger. Bare de økonomiske utgiftene til dette vil langt overgÃ¥ det som gis i militær støtte fra Europa i dag. I tillegg vil det høyst sannsynlig skape sosial og politisk uro i land som Polen, Tyskland, og øst-Europeiske land.</p><article data-element-guid="56d62f35-2e78-4701-8f35-73ae95d789ae" class="column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 " data-site-alias="dagsavisen" data-section="kommentar" data-instance="10047300" data-image-float="floatRight" itemscope>
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<p>Videre vil et Ukraina i unntakstilstand gradvis erodere sine relativt svake demokratiske institusjoner. Ãkonomien er ogsÃ¥ unormal, med store summer som kommer inn gjennom utenlandske donorer i stedet for gjennom skatter, avgifter og økonomisk vekst. Organisert kriminalitet stortrives under slike forhold â og den foregÃ¥r pÃ¥ tvers av landegrenser. Russiske og ukrainske kriminelle har ingen samarbeidsproblemer. Politikk og organisert kriminalitet blir fortere sammenvevd i slike situasjoner, og kan utgjøre en symbiose som kan være svært nyttig for Kreml. Oppildnet av fremgang i Ukraina kan Moskva søke Ã¥ svekke ikke bare det ukrainske demokratiet, men ogsÃ¥ Moldova, Romania, Serbia og sÃ¥ videre. Dette har vi jo allerede sett at de forsøker. Men med fremgang i Ukraina er sjansene mye større for at de lykkes. PÃ¥virkningsoperasjoner og innblanding i valg er enklere nÃ¥r det er stor sosial misnøye i befolkningen.</p><p>Som om ikke dette var nok, skal man absolutt ikke se bort ifra at Washington i en slik situasjon vil se med sympatiske øyne pÃ¥ det Russland gjør. Donald Trump og visepresident J D Vance støtter jo Ã¥penlyst de høyreradikale partiene i Europa. Trump har jo ogsÃ¥ en tendens til Ã¥ snu kappen etter vinden og støtte de han antar er i medvind â i dette tilfellet Russland.</p><div data-element-guid="ad4ae8e6-f7b9-45ca-83c3-7bd9e7e13919" class="column google-ad display-label widthFull" style="">
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<p>Europa er etter mitt skjønn i stor fare, og om ikke europeiske politikere viser handlekraft kan det gÃ¥ riktig ille. Den gode nyheten er at det er fullt mulig og egentlig ikke sÃ¥ politisk krevende Ã¥ hindre en slik utvikling. Det er det NUPI-rapporten beskriver som scenario 2. Men det fordrer at man er villig til Ã¥ ta litt mer sjanser, og tenke langsiktig og strategisk.</p><p>For det første mÃ¥ man si rett ut at mÃ¥let er at Ukraina skal vinne krigen. Man mÃ¥ slutte med vage formuleringer som at man er «med Ukraina i hundre Ã¥r» eller «sÃ¥ lenge som det trengs» â for det blir ingen forhandling med Putin før han ser seg tjent med Ã¥ avslutte krigen. Med slike vage formuleringer blir ogsÃ¥ innsatsen halvhjertet. Ukrainsk seier betyr ikke full gjenerobring av alt okkupert land, men at staten overlever, og at man er sterk nok militært til Ã¥ stanse de pÃ¥gÃ¥ende angrepene.</p><article data-element-guid="2b2b785b-1c98-4603-87de-c1c6097ef2f7" class="column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 " data-site-alias="dagsavisen" data-section="kommentar" data-instance="10047272" data-image-float="floatRight" itemscope>
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<p>For det andre bør Europa meisle ut en egen strategi for å oppnå denne seieren på en måte som involverer og inkluderer USA, men som ikke er avhengig av USAs ressurser for å lykkes. Men det er fortsatt avgjørende å holde USA «inne», det vil si på Europa og Ukrainas side og ikke Russlands, all den tid dette dreier seg om Europas framtid, ikke bare Ukrainas. </p><p>For det tredje må Europa bidra langt mer. Her må man snarest finne en måte å frigjøre de frosne russiske sentralbankmidlene på. Ukraina trenger mye mer penger slik at de kan øke produksjonskapasiteten i egen forsvarsindustri, og samtidig kjøpe de våpnene de trenger. </p><div data-element-guid="363f1e41-424c-412a-8d93-7359afbb9a87" class="column google-ad display-label widthFull" style="">
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<p>Norge mÃ¥ ogsÃ¥ gjøre mye mer. Det aller viktigste regjeringen kan gjøre er Ã¥ bruke vÃ¥r oljeformue pÃ¥ en strategisk mÃ¥te. Dagens Nansen-pakke er bra den, men burde vært langt større. Det er fullt mulig innenfor handlingsregelen. Samtidig burde regjeringen funnet smarte mÃ¥ter Ã¥ kunne bidra med oljefondet uten at det politiseres. Ãkonomer og andre eksperter har foreslÃ¥tt flere løsninger, som Ã¥ <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/norway-should-guarantee-eu-ukraine-loan-secured-by-russian-assets-by-havard-halland-3-and-knut-anton-mork-2025-10">garantere</a> for lÃ¥net knyttet til de frosne russiske midlene, eller Ã¥ lage et eget <a href="https://www.dn.no/kronikk/sikkerhetspolitikk/finans/oljefondet/oljefondet-kan-finansiere-europas-opprustning/2-1-1781171">forsvarsfond</a>. Det fordrer kreativ tenkning i Finansdepartementet.</p><p>Det er vanskelig Ã¥ sette en prislapp pÃ¥ risikoen ved en ukrainsk kollaps, men alternativet kan være tidenes beste investering i vÃ¥r â og neste generasjons â fremtid, velferd og sikkerhet. Poenget i NUPI-rapporten er at det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier. </p><p>Alternativet til at Europa â og Norge â tar seg sammen, er svært dystert. Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare, men denne utviklingen kan stanses av visjonære politikere som tør Ã¥ stÃ¥ fram. Hvem tar ballen?</p><p class="italic m-italic" data-lab-italic="italic">FÃ¥ nyhetsbrev fra Dagsavisen. Meld deg pÃ¥ <a href="https://www.dagsavisen.no/om-dagsavisen/2023/12/20/fa-daglig-nyhetsbrev/">her</a>!</p><article data-element-guid="96b41fb6-cf84-4656-9b5f-1b16012b7944" class="column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 " data-site-alias="dagsavisen" data-section="kommentar" data-instance="10043628" data-image-float="floatRight" itemscope>
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"content" : "# Europa er i stor fare\n\n## Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.\n\n### Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare.\n\n## EUs kamp mot tek-oligarkene\n\n## Charlie og Ingrid Olina\n\n## Sosialisme the american way\n\nKommentar\n\nDette er en kommentar. Holdninger og meninger i teksten står for skribentens regning.\n\nSe for deg følgende scenario. Europa 2029: Nigel Farage har blitt statsminister i Storbritannia, Marie le Pens Nasjonal Front styrer Frankrike, Alternativ for Tyskland kontrollerer Berlin, og Lov og Rett-partiet har vunnet tilbake makten i Polen. I tillegg har høyrepopulister konsolidert makten i resten av sentral- og Øst-Europa, fra Østerrike til Tsjekkia, Slovakia, Ungarn, Romania, Moldova og Bulgaria.\n\nParallelt med dette har europeisk økonomi blitt kraftig svekket, det er sterk sosial uro knyttet til store flyktningstrømmer, og organisert kriminalitet med utgangspunkt i Russland festet et jerngrep over store deler av kontinentet.\n\nEr dette kun et teoretisk mareritt scenario eller en realistisk mulighet? Jeg frykter at det dessverre er et fullt mulig utfall av dagens europeiske politikk – inkludert den norske.\n\nSakens kjerne er Ukraina. Utmattelseskrigen med Russland er i ferd med å tippe i sistnevntes favør. De tar litt og litt land, de ødelegger strøm, vann, veier og jernbane, de terroriserer den ukrainske sivilbefolkningen hver eneste dag. Med dagens nivå på vestlig støtte til Ukraina vil landet neppe klare å stå imot den russiske aggresjonen over tid. Det man bidrar med nå vil i så fall være fullstendig bortkastet fordi det ikke er tilstrekkelig til å stanse Russland. Det bidrar i stedet til en mer langsom død.\n\nHva vil skje om Russland fortsetter å kverne seg fram? NUPI legger i dag fram en rapport som har regnet på to scenarioer. Ett hvor Russland vinner fram og ødelegger Ukrainas framtidsutsikter, og ett hvor Ukraina klarer å få et visst overtak og overlever som et selvstendig, demokratisk land. I det første scenarioet vil det blant annet føre til at flere mennesker flykter fra Ukraina. Om Russland for eksempel klarer å ta seg fram mot Dnipro-eleven, og samtidig gjøre hele landet til en krigssone der det er vanskelig å bo, vil det raskt kunne komme 4–6 millioner nye flyktninger. Bare de økonomiske utgiftene til dette vil langt overgå det som gis i militær støtte fra Europa i dag. I tillegg vil det høyst sannsynlig skape sosial og politisk uro i land som Polen, Tyskland, og øst-Europeiske land.\n\nVidere vil et Ukraina i unntakstilstand gradvis erodere sine relativt svake demokratiske institusjoner. Økonomien er også unormal, med store summer som kommer inn gjennom utenlandske donorer i stedet for gjennom skatter, avgifter og økonomisk vekst. Organisert kriminalitet stortrives under slike forhold – og den foregår på tvers av landegrenser. Russiske og ukrainske kriminelle har ingen samarbeidsproblemer. Politikk og organisert kriminalitet blir fortere sammenvevd i slike situasjoner, og kan utgjøre en symbiose som kan være svært nyttig for Kreml. Oppildnet av fremgang i Ukraina kan Moskva søke å svekke ikke bare det ukrainske demokratiet, men også Moldova, Romania, Serbia og så videre. Dette har vi jo allerede sett at de forsøker. Men med fremgang i Ukraina er sjansene mye større for at de lykkes. Påvirkningsoperasjoner og innblanding i valg er enklere når det er stor sosial misnøye i befolkningen.\n\nSom om ikke dette var nok, skal man absolutt ikke se bort ifra at Washington i en slik situasjon vil se med sympatiske øyne på det Russland gjør. Donald Trump og visepresident J D Vance støtter jo åpenlyst de høyreradikale partiene i Europa. Trump har jo også en tendens til å snu kappen etter vinden og støtte de han antar er i medvind – i dette tilfellet Russland.\n\nEuropa er etter mitt skjønn i stor fare, og om ikke europeiske politikere viser handlekraft kan det gå riktig ille. Den gode nyheten er at det er fullt mulig og egentlig ikke så politisk krevende å hindre en slik utvikling. Det er det NUPI-rapporten beskriver som scenario 2. Men det fordrer at man er villig til å ta litt mer sjanser, og tenke langsiktig og strategisk.\n\nFor det første må man si rett ut at målet er at Ukraina skal vinne krigen. Man må slutte med vage formuleringer som at man er «med Ukraina i hundre år» eller «så lenge som det trengs» – for det blir ingen forhandling med Putin før han ser seg tjent med å avslutte krigen. Med slike vage formuleringer blir også innsatsen halvhjertet. Ukrainsk seier betyr ikke full gjenerobring av alt okkupert land, men at staten overlever, og at man er sterk nok militært til å stanse de pågående angrepene.\n\nFor det andre bør Europa meisle ut en egen strategi for å oppnå denne seieren på en måte som involverer og inkluderer USA, men som ikke er avhengig av USAs ressurser for å lykkes. Men det er fortsatt avgjørende å holde USA «inne», det vil si på Europa og Ukrainas side og ikke Russlands, all den tid dette dreier seg om Europas framtid, ikke bare Ukrainas.\n\nFor det tredje må Europa bidra langt mer. Her må man snarest finne en måte å frigjøre de frosne russiske sentralbankmidlene på. Ukraina trenger mye mer penger slik at de kan øke produksjonskapasiteten i egen forsvarsindustri, og samtidig kjøpe de våpnene de trenger.\n\nNorge må også gjøre mye mer. Det aller viktigste regjeringen kan gjøre er å bruke vår oljeformue på en strategisk måte. Dagens Nansen-pakke er bra den, men burde vært langt større. Det er fullt mulig innenfor handlingsregelen. Samtidig burde regjeringen funnet smarte måter å kunne bidra med oljefondet uten at det politiseres. Økonomer og andre eksperter har foreslått flere løsninger, som å [garantere](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/norway-should-guarantee-eu-ukraine-loan-secured-by-russian-assets-by-havard-halland-3-and-knut-anton-mork-2025-10) for lånet knyttet til de frosne russiske midlene, eller å lage et eget [forsvarsfond](https://www.dn.no/kronikk/sikkerhetspolitikk/finans/oljefondet/oljefondet-kan-finansiere-europas-opprustning/2-1-1781171). Det fordrer kreativ tenkning i Finansdepartementet.\n\nDet er vanskelig å sette en prislapp på risikoen ved en ukrainsk kollaps, men alternativet kan være tidenes beste investering i vår – og neste generasjons – fremtid, velferd og sikkerhet. Poenget i NUPI-rapporten er at det blir veldig mye dyrere å la Russland vinne fremfor å investere i en ukrainsk seier.\n\nAlternativet til at Europa – og Norge – tar seg sammen, er svært dystert. Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare, men denne utviklingen kan stanses av visjonære politikere som tør å stå fram. Hvem tar ballen?\n\nFå nyhetsbrev fra Dagsavisen. Meld deg på [her](https://www.dagsavisen.no/om-dagsavisen/2023/12/20/fa-daglig-nyhetsbrev/)!",
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"metadata" : "{\"published_at\":null,\"tags\":[\"ukraina\",\"vladimir putin\",\"kommentar\",\"karsten friis\",\"høyrepopulisme\",\"europa\",\"nupi-rapport\"],\"description\":\"Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer Ã¥ stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.\",\"author\":\"Karsten Friis\",\"title\":\"Europa er i stor fare\",\"raw_feed_item\":\"<item>\\n <title><![CDATA[Europa er i stor fare]]></title>\\n <link>https://www.dagsavisen.no/kommentar/europa-er-i-stor-fare/10046230</link>\\n <guid>https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10046230</guid>\\n <pubDate>2025-11-11T06:00:00+01:00</pubDate>\\n <description><![CDATA[Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer Ã¥ stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.]]></description>\\n <enclosure length=\\\"0\\\" type=\\\"image/jpeg\\\" url=\\\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046501.webp?imageId=10046501&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=1058&height=478&format=jpg\\\" />\\n</item>\",\"schema\":{\"microdata\":{\"url\":\"\\n\\n\\n \\n\\n\\n \\n \\n\\n \\n\\n\\n\\n\\n \",\"headline\":\"Analytikere tror norske selskaper kan tjene pÃ¥ EUs toll\\n\",\"author\":\"FOTO: Alina Smutko / NTB\",\"name\":\"Karsten Friis\",\"caption\":\"Det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne krigen fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. PÃ¥ bildet ser en kvinne pÃ¥ en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovedstad Kyiv.\"}},\"twitter\":{\"title\":\"Europa er i stor fare\",\"image\":\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046501.jpg?imageId=10046501&x=0&y=0&cropw=100&croph=100&panox=0&panoy=0&panow=100&panoh=100&width=1200&height=683\",\"description\":\"Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer Ã¥ stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.\",\"card\":\"summary_large_image\"},\"og\":{\"image:height\":\"684\",\"type\":\"article\",\"url\":\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/kommentar/europa-er-i-stor-fare/10046230\",\"title\":\"Europa er i stor fare\",\"image\":\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046501.jpg?imageId=10046501&x=0&y=0&cropw=100&croph=100&panox=0&panoy=0&panow=100&panoh=100&width=1200&height=683\",\"image:width\":\"1200\",\"description\":\"Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer Ã¥ stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.\"},\"keywords\":[\"ukraina\",\"vladimir putin\",\"kommentar\",\"karsten friis\",\"høyrepopulisme\",\"europa\",\"nupi-rapport\"],\"meta\":{\"description\":\"Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer Ã¥ stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.\",\"title\":\"Europa er i stor fare\",\"viewport\":\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1\"},\"image_url\":\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046501.jpg?imageId=10046501&x=0&y=0&cropw=100&croph=100&panox=0&panoy=0&panow=100&panoh=100&width=1200&height=683\",\"content\":\"# Europa er i stor fare\\n\\n## Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer Ã¥ stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.\\n\\n### Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare.\\n\\n## EUs kamp mot tek-oligarkene\\n\\n## Charlie og Ingrid Olina\\n\\n## Sosialisme the american way\\n\\nKommentar\\n\\nDette er en kommentar. Holdninger og meninger i teksten stÃ¥r for skribentens regning.\\n\\nSe for deg følgende scenario. Europa 2029: Nigel Farage har blitt statsminister i Storbritannia, Marie le Pens Nasjonal Front styrer Frankrike, Alternativ for Tyskland kontrollerer Berlin, og Lov og Rett-partiet har vunnet tilbake makten i Polen. I tillegg har høyrepopulister konsolidert makten i resten av sentral- og Ãst-Europa, fra Ãsterrike til Tsjekkia, Slovakia, Ungarn, Romania, Moldova og Bulgaria.\\n\\nParallelt med dette har europeisk økonomi blitt kraftig svekket, det er sterk sosial uro knyttet til store flyktningstrømmer, og organisert kriminalitet med utgangspunkt i Russland festet et jerngrep over store deler av kontinentet.\\n\\nEr dette kun et teoretisk mareritt scenario eller en realistisk mulighet? Jeg frykter at det dessverre er et fullt mulig utfall av dagens europeiske politikk â inkludert den norske.\\n\\nSakens kjerne er Ukraina. Utmattelseskrigen med Russland er i ferd med Ã¥ tippe i sistnevntes favør. De tar litt og litt land, de ødelegger strøm, vann, veier og jernbane, de terroriserer den ukrainske sivilbefolkningen hver eneste dag. Med dagens nivÃ¥ pÃ¥ vestlig støtte til Ukraina vil landet neppe klare Ã¥ stÃ¥ imot den russiske aggresjonen over tid. Det man bidrar med nÃ¥ vil i sÃ¥ fall være fullstendig bortkastet fordi det ikke er tilstrekkelig til Ã¥ stanse Russland. Det bidrar i stedet til en mer langsom død.\\n\\nHva vil skje om Russland fortsetter Ã¥ kverne seg fram? NUPI legger i dag fram en rapport som har regnet pÃ¥ to scenarioer. Ett hvor Russland vinner fram og ødelegger Ukrainas framtidsutsikter, og ett hvor Ukraina klarer Ã¥ fÃ¥ et visst overtak og overlever som et selvstendig, demokratisk land. I det første scenarioet vil det blant annet føre til at flere mennesker flykter fra Ukraina. Om Russland for eksempel klarer Ã¥ ta seg fram mot Dnipro-eleven, og samtidig gjøre hele landet til en krigssone der det er vanskelig Ã¥ bo, vil det raskt kunne komme 4â6 millioner nye flyktninger. Bare de økonomiske utgiftene til dette vil langt overgÃ¥ det som gis i militær støtte fra Europa i dag. I tillegg vil det høyst sannsynlig skape sosial og politisk uro i land som Polen, Tyskland, og øst-Europeiske land.\\n\\nVidere vil et Ukraina i unntakstilstand gradvis erodere sine relativt svake demokratiske institusjoner. Ãkonomien er ogsÃ¥ unormal, med store summer som kommer inn gjennom utenlandske donorer i stedet for gjennom skatter, avgifter og økonomisk vekst. Organisert kriminalitet stortrives under slike forhold â og den foregÃ¥r pÃ¥ tvers av landegrenser. Russiske og ukrainske kriminelle har ingen samarbeidsproblemer. Politikk og organisert kriminalitet blir fortere sammenvevd i slike situasjoner, og kan utgjøre en symbiose som kan være svært nyttig for Kreml. Oppildnet av fremgang i Ukraina kan Moskva søke Ã¥ svekke ikke bare det ukrainske demokratiet, men ogsÃ¥ Moldova, Romania, Serbia og sÃ¥ videre. Dette har vi jo allerede sett at de forsøker. Men med fremgang i Ukraina er sjansene mye større for at de lykkes. PÃ¥virkningsoperasjoner og innblanding i valg er enklere nÃ¥r det er stor sosial misnøye i befolkningen.\\n\\nSom om ikke dette var nok, skal man absolutt ikke se bort ifra at Washington i en slik situasjon vil se med sympatiske øyne pÃ¥ det Russland gjør. Donald Trump og visepresident J D Vance støtter jo Ã¥penlyst de høyreradikale partiene i Europa. Trump har jo ogsÃ¥ en tendens til Ã¥ snu kappen etter vinden og støtte de han antar er i medvind â i dette tilfellet Russland.\\n\\nEuropa er etter mitt skjønn i stor fare, og om ikke europeiske politikere viser handlekraft kan det gÃ¥ riktig ille. Den gode nyheten er at det er fullt mulig og egentlig ikke sÃ¥ politisk krevende Ã¥ hindre en slik utvikling. Det er det NUPI-rapporten beskriver som scenario 2. Men det fordrer at man er villig til Ã¥ ta litt mer sjanser, og tenke langsiktig og strategisk.\\n\\nFor det første mÃ¥ man si rett ut at mÃ¥let er at Ukraina skal vinne krigen. Man mÃ¥ slutte med vage formuleringer som at man er «med Ukraina i hundre Ã¥r» eller «sÃ¥ lenge som det trengs» â for det blir ingen forhandling med Putin før han ser seg tjent med Ã¥ avslutte krigen. Med slike vage formuleringer blir ogsÃ¥ innsatsen halvhjertet. Ukrainsk seier betyr ikke full gjenerobring av alt okkupert land, men at staten overlever, og at man er sterk nok militært til Ã¥ stanse de pÃ¥gÃ¥ende angrepene.\\n\\nFor det andre bør Europa meisle ut en egen strategi for Ã¥ oppnÃ¥ denne seieren pÃ¥ en mÃ¥te som involverer og inkluderer USA, men som ikke er avhengig av USAs ressurser for Ã¥ lykkes. Men det er fortsatt avgjørende Ã¥ holde USA «inne», det vil si pÃ¥ Europa og Ukrainas side og ikke Russlands, all den tid dette dreier seg om Europas framtid, ikke bare Ukrainas.\\n\\nFor det tredje mÃ¥ Europa bidra langt mer. Her mÃ¥ man snarest finne en mÃ¥te Ã¥ frigjøre de frosne russiske sentralbankmidlene pÃ¥. Ukraina trenger mye mer penger slik at de kan øke produksjonskapasiteten i egen forsvarsindustri, og samtidig kjøpe de vÃ¥pnene de trenger.\\n\\nNorge mÃ¥ ogsÃ¥ gjøre mye mer. Det aller viktigste regjeringen kan gjøre er Ã¥ bruke vÃ¥r oljeformue pÃ¥ en strategisk mÃ¥te. Dagens Nansen-pakke er bra den, men burde vært langt større. Det er fullt mulig innenfor handlingsregelen. Samtidig burde regjeringen funnet smarte mÃ¥ter Ã¥ kunne bidra med oljefondet uten at det politiseres. Ãkonomer og andre eksperter har foreslÃ¥tt flere løsninger, som Ã¥ [garantere](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/norway-should-guarantee-eu-ukraine-loan-secured-by-russian-assets-by-havard-halland-3-and-knut-anton-mork-2025-10) for lÃ¥net knyttet til de frosne russiske midlene, eller Ã¥ lage et eget [forsvarsfond](https://www.dn.no/kronikk/sikkerhetspolitikk/finans/oljefondet/oljefondet-kan-finansiere-europas-opprustning/2-1-1781171). Det fordrer kreativ tenkning i Finansdepartementet.\\n\\nDet er vanskelig Ã¥ sette en prislapp pÃ¥ risikoen ved en ukrainsk kollaps, men alternativet kan være tidenes beste investering i vÃ¥r â og neste generasjons â fremtid, velferd og sikkerhet. Poenget i NUPI-rapporten er at det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier.\\n\\nAlternativet til at Europa â og Norge â tar seg sammen, er svært dystert. Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare, men denne utviklingen kan stanses av visjonære politikere som tør Ã¥ stÃ¥ fram. Hvem tar ballen?\\n\\nFÃ¥ nyhetsbrev fra Dagsavisen. Meld deg pÃ¥ [her](https://www.dagsavisen.no/om-dagsavisen/2023/12/20/fa-daglig-nyhetsbrev/)!\"}",
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PÃ¥ bildet ser en kvinne pÃ¥ en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovedstad Kyiv.\"\n alt=\"Det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne krigen fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. PÃ¥ bildet ser en kvinne pÃ¥ en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovestad Kyiv.\" \n \n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\"></div>\n </div>\n\n\n <div class=\"caption \" data-showmore=\"Vis mer\">\n <figcaption itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"\">Det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne krigen fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. PÃ¥ bildet ser en kvinne pÃ¥ en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovedstad Kyiv.</figcaption>\n <figcaption itemprop=\"author\" class=\"\" data-byline-prefix=\"\">FOTO: Alina Smutko / NTB</figcaption>\n </div>\n\n\n\n <p class=\"kicker t30 tertiary color_mobile_tertiary\" style=\"\">Kommentar</p>\n <h1 class=\"headline mainTitle t104 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic\" style=\"\">Europa er i stor fare</h1>\n <h2 class=\"subtitle t27 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic\" style=\"\">Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer Ã¥ stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.</h2>\n\n\n\n <div data-element-guid=\"d2c7b9cd-409e-40ad-a7ab-cfc1a0ad314d\" class=\"meta\">\n \n\n <div class=\"bylines\">\n <div data-element-guid=\"672684fa-4d02-4e34-8cec-d477f4038f6e\" class=\"byline column\" itemscope itemtype=\"http://schema.org/Person\">\n \n <div class=\"content\">\n <figure data-element-guid=\"a71b5c02-12f2-4e6e-8142-a4f1ad94c25e\">\n <picture>\n <img\n itemprop=\"image\"\n src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9839868.webp?imageId=9839868&width=360&height=360\"\n width=\"180\"\n height=\"180\"\n alt=\"Karsten Friis\">\n </picture>\n</figure>\n <address class=\"name\">\n <a rel=\"author\" itemprop=\"url\" href=\"mailto:kf@nupi.no\">\n <span class=\"lab-hidden-byline-name\" itemprop=\"name\">Karsten Friis</span>\n <span class=\"firstname \">Karsten</span>\n <span class=\"lastname \">Friis</span>\n </a>\n\n <span class=\"lab-hidden-byline-name\" itemprop=\"name\">Karsten Friis</span>\n <span class=\"description \">Forsker 1, NUPI</span>\n </address>\n </div>\n</div>\n\n \n </div>\n \n <div class=\"dates\">\n \n <span class=\"dateGroup datePublished\">\n <span class=\"dateLabel\">Publisert</span>\n <time datetime=\"2025-11-11T05:00:00.000Z\" title=\"Publisert 11.11.2025 - 06:00\">11.11.2025 - 06:00</time>\n </span>\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"read-time\">\n <span>Lesetid: <span class=\"read-time-value\">4 min</span></span>\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"social\">\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-social-facebook\" aria-label=\"Del pÃ¥ Facebook\"></a>\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"mailto:?subject=Europa%20er%20i%20stor%20fare&body=Kan%20ytre%20h%C3%B8yre%20vinne%20fram%20i%20Europa%20om%20vi%20ikke%20klarer%20%C3%A5%20stanse%20Vladimir%20Putin%20i%20Ukraina%3F%20Det%20er%20dessverre%20et%20fullt%20mulig%20utfall.%0Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-mail\" aria-label=\"Del via e-mail\"></a>\n </div>\n\n\n\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n \n\n \n <div data-element-guid=\"124d72fd-4ab2-456d-d0ae-5cdc84c4d602\" class=\"placeholder fullWidth\">\n<div data-element-guid=\"db7fab0c-7eff-4a9c-f0ec-c44c666e48f8\" class=\"column google-ad small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12 display-label\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"nettbanner1\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('nettbanner1');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n \n\n <div data-element-guid=\"d2c7b9cd-409e-40ad-a7ab-cfc1a0ad314d\" class=\"bodytext large-12 small-12 medium-12\">\n \n \n\n <p> <span data-lab-italic=\"italic\" class=\"italic m-italic\">Dette er en kommentar. Holdninger og meninger i teksten stÃ¥r for skribentens regning.<br> </span></p><p>Se for deg følgende scenario. Europa 2029: Nigel Farage har blitt statsminister i Storbritannia, Marie le Pens Nasjonal Front styrer Frankrike, Alternativ for Tyskland kontrollerer Berlin, og Lov og Rett-partiet har vunnet tilbake makten i Polen. I tillegg har høyrepopulister konsolidert makten i resten av sentral- og Ãst-Europa, fra Ãsterrike til Tsjekkia, Slovakia, Ungarn, Romania, Moldova og Bulgaria.</p><p>Parallelt med dette har europeisk økonomi blitt kraftig svekket, det er sterk sosial uro knyttet til store flyktningstrømmer, og organisert kriminalitet med utgangspunkt i Russland festet et jerngrep over store deler av kontinentet.</p><div data-element-guid=\"6423cb22-b56e-4b00-9395-38ebd2b792f4\" class=\"quotebox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8\">\n \n <div class=\"content\"\n style=\"--bg-color: var(--); --text-color: var(--); \" \n >\n \n <h3 class=\"quote\"\n style=\"\"\n >\n Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare.\n </h3>\n <p class=\"author dac-hidden\"\n style=\"\"></p>\n </div>\n</div>\n<p>Er dette kun et teoretisk mareritt scenario eller en realistisk mulighet? Jeg frykter at det dessverre er et fullt mulig utfall av dagens europeiske politikk â inkludert den norske.</p><div data-element-guid=\"f794e30d-3963-4619-a99a-42ef01558eb3\" class=\"column google-ad display-label widthFull\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"articleboard/board1\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('articleboard/board1');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n<p>Sakens kjerne er Ukraina. Utmattelseskrigen med Russland er i ferd med Ã¥ tippe i sistnevntes favør. De tar litt og litt land, de ødelegger strøm, vann, veier og jernbane, de terroriserer den ukrainske sivilbefolkningen hver eneste dag. Med dagens nivÃ¥ pÃ¥ vestlig støtte til Ukraina vil landet neppe klare Ã¥ stÃ¥ imot den russiske aggresjonen over tid. Det man bidrar med nÃ¥ vil i sÃ¥ fall være fullstendig bortkastet fordi det ikke er tilstrekkelig til Ã¥ stanse Russland. Det bidrar i stedet til en mer langsom død.</p><div data-element-guid=\"afef610d-32cf-45ce-8b00-8c21ead212e3\" id=\"markup_10050373\" class=\"markupbox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n\n \n\n \n\n <script data-wid=\"auto\" type=\"text/javascript\" src=\"https://content.viralize.tv/display/?zid=AAEU4R86_QAFkLJ0&cid=ABNYxNcQshbO8snQ\"></script>\n\n \n \n </div>\n</div>\n<p>Hva vil skje om Russland fortsetter Ã¥ kverne seg fram? NUPI legger i dag fram en rapport som har regnet pÃ¥ to scenarioer. Ett hvor Russland vinner fram og ødelegger Ukrainas framtidsutsikter, og ett hvor Ukraina klarer Ã¥ fÃ¥ et visst overtak og overlever som et selvstendig, demokratisk land. I det første scenarioet vil det blant annet føre til at flere mennesker flykter fra Ukraina. Om Russland for eksempel klarer Ã¥ ta seg fram mot Dnipro-eleven, og samtidig gjøre hele landet til en krigssone der det er vanskelig Ã¥ bo, vil det raskt kunne komme 4â6 millioner nye flyktninger. Bare de økonomiske utgiftene til dette vil langt overgÃ¥ det som gis i militær støtte fra Europa i dag. I tillegg vil det høyst sannsynlig skape sosial og politisk uro i land som Polen, Tyskland, og øst-Europeiske land.</p><article data-element-guid=\"56d62f35-2e78-4701-8f35-73ae95d789ae\" class=\"column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kommentar\" data-instance=\"10047300\" data-image-float=\"floatRight\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content bg-tertiary color_mobile_bg-tertiary op-bg_60 color_mobile_op-bg_60 border-bg-secondary mobile_border-bg-secondary vertical-text-align-center mobile-vertical-text-align-center hasContentPadding mobile-hasContentPadding hasBorder mobile-hasBorder\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"/kommentar/eus-kamp-mot-tek-oligarkene/10047300\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10047300\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"7cbbd2dc-db26-4f8a-9b53-350f7c27dd61\" class=\"desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\" style=\"width:184px;\">\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=webp\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=jpg\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=webp\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\"\n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n title=\"EUs kamp mot tek-oligarkene\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"vertically-aligned-text\">\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline t19 tm14\"\n style=\"\"\n >EUs kamp mot tek-oligarkene\n</h2>\n\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-10T06:02:00+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<p>Videre vil et Ukraina i unntakstilstand gradvis erodere sine relativt svake demokratiske institusjoner. Ãkonomien er ogsÃ¥ unormal, med store summer som kommer inn gjennom utenlandske donorer i stedet for gjennom skatter, avgifter og økonomisk vekst. Organisert kriminalitet stortrives under slike forhold â og den foregÃ¥r pÃ¥ tvers av landegrenser. Russiske og ukrainske kriminelle har ingen samarbeidsproblemer. Politikk og organisert kriminalitet blir fortere sammenvevd i slike situasjoner, og kan utgjøre en symbiose som kan være svært nyttig for Kreml. Oppildnet av fremgang i Ukraina kan Moskva søke Ã¥ svekke ikke bare det ukrainske demokratiet, men ogsÃ¥ Moldova, Romania, Serbia og sÃ¥ videre. Dette har vi jo allerede sett at de forsøker. Men med fremgang i Ukraina er sjansene mye større for at de lykkes. PÃ¥virkningsoperasjoner og innblanding i valg er enklere nÃ¥r det er stor sosial misnøye i befolkningen.</p><p>Som om ikke dette var nok, skal man absolutt ikke se bort ifra at Washington i en slik situasjon vil se med sympatiske øyne pÃ¥ det Russland gjør. Donald Trump og visepresident J D Vance støtter jo Ã¥penlyst de høyreradikale partiene i Europa. Trump har jo ogsÃ¥ en tendens til Ã¥ snu kappen etter vinden og støtte de han antar er i medvind â i dette tilfellet Russland.</p><div data-element-guid=\"ad4ae8e6-f7b9-45ca-83c3-7bd9e7e13919\" class=\"column google-ad display-label widthFull\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"articleboard/board2\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('articleboard/board2');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n<p>Europa er etter mitt skjønn i stor fare, og om ikke europeiske politikere viser handlekraft kan det gÃ¥ riktig ille. Den gode nyheten er at det er fullt mulig og egentlig ikke sÃ¥ politisk krevende Ã¥ hindre en slik utvikling. Det er det NUPI-rapporten beskriver som scenario 2. Men det fordrer at man er villig til Ã¥ ta litt mer sjanser, og tenke langsiktig og strategisk.</p><p>For det første mÃ¥ man si rett ut at mÃ¥let er at Ukraina skal vinne krigen. Man mÃ¥ slutte med vage formuleringer som at man er «med Ukraina i hundre Ã¥r» eller «sÃ¥ lenge som det trengs» â for det blir ingen forhandling med Putin før han ser seg tjent med Ã¥ avslutte krigen. Med slike vage formuleringer blir ogsÃ¥ innsatsen halvhjertet. Ukrainsk seier betyr ikke full gjenerobring av alt okkupert land, men at staten overlever, og at man er sterk nok militært til Ã¥ stanse de pÃ¥gÃ¥ende angrepene.</p><article data-element-guid=\"2b2b785b-1c98-4603-87de-c1c6097ef2f7\" class=\"column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kommentar\" data-instance=\"10047272\" data-image-float=\"floatRight\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content bg-tertiary color_mobile_bg-tertiary op-bg_60 color_mobile_op-bg_60 border-bg-secondary mobile_border-bg-secondary vertical-text-align-center mobile-vertical-text-align-center hasContentPadding mobile-hasContentPadding hasBorder mobile-hasBorder\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"/kommentar/charlie-og-ingrid-olina/10047272\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10047272\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"7b7122d5-e3ce-4e0f-9606-cb715eff68c3\" class=\"desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\" style=\"width:184px;\">\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=webp\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=jpg\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=webp\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\"\n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n title=\"Charlie og Ingrid Olina\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"vertically-aligned-text\">\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline t19 tm14\"\n style=\"\"\n >Charlie og Ingrid Olina\n</h2>\n\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-09T17:41:22+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<p>For det andre bør Europa meisle ut en egen strategi for Ã¥ oppnÃ¥ denne seieren pÃ¥ en mÃ¥te som involverer og inkluderer USA, men som ikke er avhengig av USAs ressurser for Ã¥ lykkes. Men det er fortsatt avgjørende Ã¥ holde USA «inne», det vil si pÃ¥ Europa og Ukrainas side og ikke Russlands, all den tid dette dreier seg om Europas framtid, ikke bare Ukrainas. </p><p>For det tredje mÃ¥ Europa bidra langt mer. Her mÃ¥ man snarest finne en mÃ¥te Ã¥ frigjøre de frosne russiske sentralbankmidlene pÃ¥. Ukraina trenger mye mer penger slik at de kan øke produksjonskapasiteten i egen forsvarsindustri, og samtidig kjøpe de vÃ¥pnene de trenger. </p><div data-element-guid=\"363f1e41-424c-412a-8d93-7359afbb9a87\" class=\"column google-ad display-label widthFull\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"articleboard/board3\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('articleboard/board3');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n<p>Norge mÃ¥ ogsÃ¥ gjøre mye mer. Det aller viktigste regjeringen kan gjøre er Ã¥ bruke vÃ¥r oljeformue pÃ¥ en strategisk mÃ¥te. Dagens Nansen-pakke er bra den, men burde vært langt større. Det er fullt mulig innenfor handlingsregelen. Samtidig burde regjeringen funnet smarte mÃ¥ter Ã¥ kunne bidra med oljefondet uten at det politiseres. Ãkonomer og andre eksperter har foreslÃ¥tt flere løsninger, som Ã¥ <a href=\"https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/norway-should-guarantee-eu-ukraine-loan-secured-by-russian-assets-by-havard-halland-3-and-knut-anton-mork-2025-10\">garantere</a> for lÃ¥net knyttet til de frosne russiske midlene, eller Ã¥ lage et eget <a href=\"https://www.dn.no/kronikk/sikkerhetspolitikk/finans/oljefondet/oljefondet-kan-finansiere-europas-opprustning/2-1-1781171\">forsvarsfond</a>. Det fordrer kreativ tenkning i Finansdepartementet.</p><p>Det er vanskelig Ã¥ sette en prislapp pÃ¥ risikoen ved en ukrainsk kollaps, men alternativet kan være tidenes beste investering i vÃ¥r â og neste generasjons â fremtid, velferd og sikkerhet. Poenget i NUPI-rapporten er at det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier. </p><p>Alternativet til at Europa â og Norge â tar seg sammen, er svært dystert. Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare, men denne utviklingen kan stanses av visjonære politikere som tør Ã¥ stÃ¥ fram. Hvem tar ballen?</p><p class=\"italic m-italic\" data-lab-italic=\"italic\">FÃ¥ nyhetsbrev fra Dagsavisen. Meld deg pÃ¥ <a href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/om-dagsavisen/2023/12/20/fa-daglig-nyhetsbrev/\">her</a>!</p><article data-element-guid=\"96b41fb6-cf84-4656-9b5f-1b16012b7944\" class=\"column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kommentar\" data-instance=\"10043628\" data-image-float=\"floatRight\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content bg-tertiary color_mobile_bg-tertiary op-bg_60 color_mobile_op-bg_60 border-bg-secondary mobile_border-bg-secondary vertical-text-align-center mobile-vertical-text-align-center hasContentPadding mobile-hasContentPadding hasBorder mobile-hasBorder\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"/kommentar/sosialisme-the-american-way/10043628\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10043628\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"0d9df18b-33c0-4b4e-afff-612919b591f1\" class=\"desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\" style=\"width:184px;\">\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=webp\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=jpg\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=webp\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\"\n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n title=\"Sosialisme the american way\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"vertically-aligned-text\">\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline t19 tm14\"\n style=\"\"\n >Sosialisme the american way\n</h2>\n\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-08T06:00:00+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n\n\n \n\n \n</div>\n\n\n \n\n\n \n<div data-element-guid=\"d2c7b9cd-409e-40ad-a7ab-cfc1a0ad314d\" class=\"column articleFooter\">\n <span class=\"tags\">\n <a href=\"/tags/ukraina\">ukraina</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/vladimir%20putin\">vladimir putin</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/kommentar\">kommentar</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/karsten%20friis\">karsten friis</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/h%C3%B8yrepopulisme\">høyrepopulisme</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/europa\">europa</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/nupi-rapport\">nupi-rapport</a>\n </span>\n \n</div>\n\n\n <div class=\"row social\">\n <div class=\"column large-12 small-12\">\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-social-facebook\" aria-label=\"Del pÃ¥ Facebook\"></a>\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"mailto:?subject=Europa%20er%20i%20stor%20fare&body=Kan%20ytre%20h%C3%B8yre%20vinne%20fram%20i%20Europa%20om%20vi%20ikke%20klarer%20%C3%A5%20stanse%20Vladimir%20Putin%20i%20Ukraina%3F%20Det%20er%20dessverre%20et%20fullt%20mulig%20utfall.%0Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-mail\" aria-label=\"Del via e-mail\"></a>\n </div>\n </div>\n\n </section>\n \n </article>\n <section class=\"related desktop-fullWidth mobile-fullWidth fullwidthTarget\">\n <div data-element-guid=\"2dd59dbd-edb7-4e5d-8690-afb97c71a424\" class=\"page-content\"><div data-element-guid=\"5b116b85-7a06-4e80-f3b0-e02d2b1311d5\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\">\n<!-- placeholder(#1) -->\n<div data-element-guid=\"a6046972-3d6a-46ca-bb41-6ca2f6864719\" class=\"front_rows small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12 large-12 small-12\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n \n <div data-element-guid=\"5de07c53-01d3-47bb-be6e-597a6a6b37d8\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><div data-element-guid=\"676e9362-fb2a-47e1-871b-5e0b8006f50c\" id=\"markup_9634045\" class=\"markupbox column small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n\n \n\n \n\n <div id=\"belowarticle\"></div>\n\n \n \n </div>\n</div>\n</div>\n<div data-element-guid=\"e815b6f3-e10a-47f1-8a8e-5e3579dc2696\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><div data-element-guid=\"64458b00-1581-4327-8268-468fcee6b7cb\" id=\"markup_9634042\" class=\"markupbox column small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n\n \n\n \n\n <div class=\"strossle-widget\"></div>\n\n \n \n </div>\n</div>\n</div>\n<div data-element-guid=\"c83a61a6-4990-4ad2-b189-b0a9a81d9b88\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><article data-element-guid=\"895f4156-0195-463e-949c-d6aaae7fcf4b\" class=\"column paywall small-12 large-6 small-abs-12 large-abs-6 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kultur\" data-instance=\"4218051\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/kultur/familiekos-med-holmgang/10059620\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10059620\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"3614a30f-58c1-493c-8acc-168df1442d63\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9984215.jpg?imageId=9984215&panox=0.00&panoy=33.09&panow=100.00&panoh=31.85&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=1058&height=478&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"529\"\n height=\"239\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9984215.jpg?imageId=9984215&panox=0.00&panoy=33.09&panow=100.00&panoh=31.85&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=1058&height=478&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"529\"\n height=\"239\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9984215.jpg?imageId=9984215&panox=0.00&panoy=33.09&panow=100.00&panoh=31.85&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9984215.jpg?imageId=9984215&panox=0.00&panoy=33.09&panow=100.00&panoh=31.85&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9984215.jpg?imageId=9984215&panox=0.00&panoy=33.09&panow=100.00&panoh=31.85&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Familiekos med holmgang\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Familiekos med holmgang\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-18T10:31:57+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<article data-element-guid=\"473ec2fa-f836-4cf2-a0a3-1b97110fb0d5\" class=\"column small-12 large-6 small-abs-12 large-abs-6 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"nyheter\" data-instance=\"4218053\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" 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type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10062235.jpg?imageId=10062235&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10062235.jpg?imageId=10062235&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Delte reaksjoner pÃ¥ FNs Gaza-vedtak â Gir Trump nøkkelrolle, mener ekspert\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Delte reaksjoner pÃ¥ FNs Gaza-vedtak â Gir Trump nøkkelrolle, mener ekspert\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-18T09:10:30+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n</div>\n<div data-element-guid=\"461b530d-6b58-48c7-a571-65f80d0a20fa\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><article data-element-guid=\"1e307260-578a-4dbb-affc-9f647329d614\" class=\"column paywall small-12 large-4 small-abs-12 large-abs-4 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kommentar\" data-instance=\"4218055\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/kommentar/en-feiring-som-ma-forklares/10062021\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10062021\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"587be6fa-c40c-4cda-82ed-b3afd56f0acd\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10062025.jpg?imageId=10062025&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10062025.jpg?imageId=10062025&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10062025.jpg?imageId=10062025&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10062025.jpg?imageId=10062025&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10062025.jpg?imageId=10062025&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"En feiring som mÃ¥ forklares\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >En feiring som mÃ¥ forklares\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-18T08:41:01+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<article data-element-guid=\"366440f1-900c-4d50-b20b-7b95190ac977\" class=\"column small-12 large-4 small-abs-12 large-abs-4 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"sport\" data-instance=\"4218057\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/sport/solbakken-etter-brorens-rorende-kommentar-jeg-har-fatt-mange-meldinger/10062173\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10062173\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"a08dfbde-734f-4f76-bd8c-f25aa3fb846e\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10062170.jpg?imageId=10062170&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10062170.jpg?imageId=10062170&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10062170.jpg?imageId=10062170&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10062170.jpg?imageId=10062170&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10062170.jpg?imageId=10062170&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Solbakken etter brorens rørende kommentar: â Jeg har fÃ¥tt mange meldinger\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Solbakken etter brorens rørende kommentar: â Jeg har fÃ¥tt mange meldinger\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-18T07:57:53+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<article data-element-guid=\"49eb7884-5c37-4637-ae01-ed97a7d59a36\" class=\"column small-12 large-4 small-abs-12 large-abs-4 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"nyheter\" data-instance=\"4218059\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/analytikere-tror-norske-selskaper-kan-tjene-pa-eus-toll/10062164\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10062164\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"8102e4b1-b0af-4fa2-99eb-feec6e92e844\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9877246.jpg?imageId=9877246&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9877246.jpg?imageId=9877246&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9877246.jpg?imageId=9877246&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9877246.jpg?imageId=9877246&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9877246.jpg?imageId=9877246&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Analytikere tror norske selskaper kan tjene pÃ¥ EUs toll\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Analytikere tror norske selskaper kan tjene pÃ¥ EUs toll\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-18T07:57:16+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n</div>\n\n </div>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n</div>\n\n </section>\n </main>\n <div data-element-guid=\"47daf8c4-f323-4f19-edbe-72fe733a82f5\" class=\"placeholder placement-left\">\n<div data-element-guid=\"2e3ce4d3-a809-4a4c-c888-efc143dd3802\" class=\"column google-ad small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12 sticky display-label\" style=\"top: 80px;\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"left_sticky\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('left_sticky');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n <div data-element-guid=\"7da52987-f7f0-47ba-d201-34d9df4b806f\" class=\"placeholder placement-right\">\n<div data-element-guid=\"e9ab5a5f-a2d0-4f44-cb0e-2f43b9ba2b40\" class=\"column google-ad small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12 sticky display-label\" style=\"top: 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large-abs-3\">\n <style></style>\n <h2 class=\"content singleline t16 tm17 font-PTSerif\" style=\" \">\n <br><br>Desksjef:\n<a href=\"mailto:espen.rusdal@dagsavisen.no\" class=\"primary color_mobile_primary\" data-lab-text_color_desktop=\"primary\">Espen HÃ¥gensen Rusdal</a><br>Nyhetssjef: <a href=\"mailto:ines.zander@dagsavisen.no\" class=\"primary color_mobile_primary\" data-lab-text_color_desktop=\"primary\">Ines Margot Zander</a> (permisjon) <br>Nyhetsleder: <a href=\"mailto:jorn.henriksen.skjaerpe@dagsavisen.no\" class=\"primary color_mobile_primary\" data-lab-text_color_desktop=\"primary\">Jørn H. 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Version 3
2025-11-14 11:12:45
Europa er i stor fare
UPDATE
Author: Karsten Friis
Published: 2025-11-11 05:00:00
Updated: 2025-11-11 05:00:00
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Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.
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alt="Det blir veldig mye dyrere å la Russland vinne krigen fremfor å investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. På bildet ser en kvinne på en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovestad Kyiv."
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<figcaption itemprop="caption" class="">Det blir veldig mye dyrere å la Russland vinne krigen fremfor å investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. På bildet ser en kvinne på en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovedstad Kyiv.</figcaption>
<figcaption itemprop="author" class="" data-byline-prefix="">FOTO: Alina Smutko / NTB</figcaption>
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<p class="kicker t30 tertiary color_mobile_tertiary" style="">Kommentar</p>
<h1 class="headline mainTitle t104 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic" style="">Europa er i stor fare</h1>
<h2 class="subtitle t27 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic" style="">Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.</h2>
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<span class="lab-hidden-byline-name" itemprop="name">Karsten Friis</span>
<span class="firstname ">Karsten</span>
<span class="lastname ">Friis</span>
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<span class="lab-hidden-byline-name" itemprop="name">Karsten Friis</span>
<span class="description ">Forsker 1, NUPI</span>
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<span class="dateLabel">Publisert</span>
<time datetime="2025-11-11T05:00:00.000Z" title="Publisert 11.11.2025 - 06:00">11.11.2025 - 06:00</time>
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<span>Lesetid: <span class="read-time-value">4 min</span></span>
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<p> <span data-lab-italic="italic" class="italic m-italic">Dette er en kommentar. Holdninger og meninger i teksten stÃ¥r for skribentens regning.<br> </span></p><p>Se for deg følgende scenario. Europa 2029: Nigel Farage har blitt statsminister i Storbritannia, Marie le Pens Nasjonal Front styrer Frankrike, Alternativ for Tyskland kontrollerer Berlin, og Lov og Rett-partiet har vunnet tilbake makten i Polen. I tillegg har høyrepopulister konsolidert makten i resten av sentral- og Ãst-Europa, fra Ãsterrike til Tsjekkia, Slovakia, Ungarn, Romania, Moldova og Bulgaria.</p><p>Parallelt med dette har europeisk økonomi blitt kraftig svekket, det er sterk sosial uro knyttet til store flyktningstrømmer, og organisert kriminalitet med utgangspunkt i Russland festet et jerngrep over store deler av kontinentet.</p><div data-element-guid="6423cb22-b56e-4b00-9395-38ebd2b792f4" class="quotebox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8">
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<h3 class="quote "
style="">Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare.</h3>
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style=""></p>
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<p>Er dette kun et teoretisk mareritt scenario eller en realistisk mulighet? Jeg frykter at det dessverre er et fullt mulig utfall av dagens europeiske politikk â inkludert den norske.</p><div data-element-guid="b3a4d59a-bd6d-4f45-9dca-34eb78a85a0d" class="column google-ad display-label widthFull" style="">
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<p>Sakens kjerne er Ukraina. Utmattelseskrigen med Russland er i ferd med å tippe i sistnevntes favør. De tar litt og litt land, de ødelegger strøm, vann, veier og jernbane, de terroriserer den ukrainske sivilbefolkningen hver eneste dag. Med dagens nivå på vestlig støtte til Ukraina vil landet neppe klare å stå imot den russiske aggresjonen over tid. Det man bidrar med nå vil i så fall være fullstendig bortkastet fordi det ikke er tilstrekkelig til å stanse Russland. Det bidrar i stedet til en mer langsom død.</p><div data-element-guid="afef610d-32cf-45ce-8b00-8c21ead212e3" id="markup_10050373" class="markupbox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8">
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<p>Hva vil skje om Russland fortsetter Ã¥ kverne seg fram? NUPI legger i dag fram en rapport som har regnet pÃ¥ to scenarioer. Ett hvor Russland vinner fram og ødelegger Ukrainas framtidsutsikter, og ett hvor Ukraina klarer Ã¥ fÃ¥ et visst overtak og overlever som et selvstendig, demokratisk land. I det første scenarioet vil det blant annet føre til at flere mennesker flykter fra Ukraina. Om Russland for eksempel klarer Ã¥ ta seg fram mot Dnipro-eleven, og samtidig gjøre hele landet til en krigssone der det er vanskelig Ã¥ bo, vil det raskt kunne komme 4â6 millioner nye flyktninger. Bare de økonomiske utgiftene til dette vil langt overgÃ¥ det som gis i militær støtte fra Europa i dag. I tillegg vil det høyst sannsynlig skape sosial og politisk uro i land som Polen, Tyskland, og øst-Europeiske land.</p><article data-element-guid="56d62f35-2e78-4701-8f35-73ae95d789ae" class="column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 " data-site-alias="dagsavisen" data-section="kommentar" data-instance="10047300" data-image-float="floatRight" itemscope>
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<p>Videre vil et Ukraina i unntakstilstand gradvis erodere sine relativt svake demokratiske institusjoner. Ãkonomien er ogsÃ¥ unormal, med store summer som kommer inn gjennom utenlandske donorer i stedet for gjennom skatter, avgifter og økonomisk vekst. Organisert kriminalitet stortrives under slike forhold â og den foregÃ¥r pÃ¥ tvers av landegrenser. Russiske og ukrainske kriminelle har ingen samarbeidsproblemer. Politikk og organisert kriminalitet blir fortere sammenvevd i slike situasjoner, og kan utgjøre en symbiose som kan være svært nyttig for Kreml. Oppildnet av fremgang i Ukraina kan Moskva søke Ã¥ svekke ikke bare det ukrainske demokratiet, men ogsÃ¥ Moldova, Romania, Serbia og sÃ¥ videre. Dette har vi jo allerede sett at de forsøker. Men med fremgang i Ukraina er sjansene mye større for at de lykkes. PÃ¥virkningsoperasjoner og innblanding i valg er enklere nÃ¥r det er stor sosial misnøye i befolkningen.</p><p>Som om ikke dette var nok, skal man absolutt ikke se bort ifra at Washington i en slik situasjon vil se med sympatiske øyne pÃ¥ det Russland gjør. Donald Trump og visepresident J D Vance støtter jo Ã¥penlyst de høyreradikale partiene i Europa. Trump har jo ogsÃ¥ en tendens til Ã¥ snu kappen etter vinden og støtte de han antar er i medvind â i dette tilfellet Russland.</p><div data-element-guid="78eb922b-4961-4c8a-e9a3-24c8455fa4d0" class="column google-ad display-label widthFull" style="">
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<p>Europa er etter mitt skjønn i stor fare, og om ikke europeiske politikere viser handlekraft kan det gÃ¥ riktig ille. Den gode nyheten er at det er fullt mulig og egentlig ikke sÃ¥ politisk krevende Ã¥ hindre en slik utvikling. Det er det NUPI-rapporten beskriver som scenario 2. Men det fordrer at man er villig til Ã¥ ta litt mer sjanser, og tenke langsiktig og strategisk.</p><p>For det første mÃ¥ man si rett ut at mÃ¥let er at Ukraina skal vinne krigen. Man mÃ¥ slutte med vage formuleringer som at man er «med Ukraina i hundre Ã¥r» eller «sÃ¥ lenge som det trengs» â for det blir ingen forhandling med Putin før han ser seg tjent med Ã¥ avslutte krigen. Med slike vage formuleringer blir ogsÃ¥ innsatsen halvhjertet. Ukrainsk seier betyr ikke full gjenerobring av alt okkupert land, men at staten overlever, og at man er sterk nok militært til Ã¥ stanse de pÃ¥gÃ¥ende angrepene.</p><article data-element-guid="2b2b785b-1c98-4603-87de-c1c6097ef2f7" class="column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 " data-site-alias="dagsavisen" data-section="kommentar" data-instance="10047272" data-image-float="floatRight" itemscope>
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<p>For det andre bør Europa meisle ut en egen strategi for å oppnå denne seieren på en måte som involverer og inkluderer USA, men som ikke er avhengig av USAs ressurser for å lykkes. Men det er fortsatt avgjørende å holde USA «inne», det vil si på Europa og Ukrainas side og ikke Russlands, all den tid dette dreier seg om Europas framtid, ikke bare Ukrainas. </p><p>For det tredje må Europa bidra langt mer. Her må man snarest finne en måte å frigjøre de frosne russiske sentralbankmidlene på. Ukraina trenger mye mer penger slik at de kan øke produksjonskapasiteten i egen forsvarsindustri, og samtidig kjøpe de våpnene de trenger. </p><div data-element-guid="529a7c31-c5c7-4854-b8be-2be261b6e7b8" class="column google-ad display-label widthFull" style="">
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<p>Norge mÃ¥ ogsÃ¥ gjøre mye mer. Det aller viktigste regjeringen kan gjøre er Ã¥ bruke vÃ¥r oljeformue pÃ¥ en strategisk mÃ¥te. Dagens Nansen-pakke er bra den, men burde vært langt større. Det er fullt mulig innenfor handlingsregelen. Samtidig burde regjeringen funnet smarte mÃ¥ter Ã¥ kunne bidra med oljefondet uten at det politiseres. Ãkonomer og andre eksperter har foreslÃ¥tt flere løsninger, som Ã¥ <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/norway-should-guarantee-eu-ukraine-loan-secured-by-russian-assets-by-havard-halland-3-and-knut-anton-mork-2025-10">garantere</a> for lÃ¥net knyttet til de frosne russiske midlene, eller Ã¥ lage et eget <a href="https://www.dn.no/kronikk/sikkerhetspolitikk/finans/oljefondet/oljefondet-kan-finansiere-europas-opprustning/2-1-1781171">forsvarsfond</a>. Det fordrer kreativ tenkning i Finansdepartementet.</p><p>Det er vanskelig Ã¥ sette en prislapp pÃ¥ risikoen ved en ukrainsk kollaps, men alternativet kan være tidenes beste investering i vÃ¥r â og neste generasjons â fremtid, velferd og sikkerhet. Poenget i NUPI-rapporten er at det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier. </p><p>Alternativet til at Europa â og Norge â tar seg sammen, er svært dystert. Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare, men denne utviklingen kan stanses av visjonære politikere som tør Ã¥ stÃ¥ fram. Hvem tar ballen?</p><p class="italic m-italic" data-lab-italic="italic">FÃ¥ nyhetsbrev fra Dagsavisen. Meld deg pÃ¥ <a href="https://www.dagsavisen.no/om-dagsavisen/2023/12/20/fa-daglig-nyhetsbrev/">her</a>!</p><article data-element-guid="96b41fb6-cf84-4656-9b5f-1b16012b7944" class="column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 " data-site-alias="dagsavisen" data-section="kommentar" data-instance="10043628" data-image-float="floatRight" itemscope>
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PÃ¥ bildet ser en kvinne pÃ¥ en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovedstad Kyiv.\"\n alt=\"Det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne krigen fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. PÃ¥ bildet ser en kvinne pÃ¥ en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovestad Kyiv.\" \n \n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\"></div>\n </div>\n\n\n <div class=\"caption \" data-showmore=\"Vis mer\">\n <figcaption itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"\">Det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne krigen fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. PÃ¥ bildet ser en kvinne pÃ¥ en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovedstad Kyiv.</figcaption>\n <figcaption itemprop=\"author\" class=\"\" data-byline-prefix=\"\">FOTO: Alina Smutko / NTB</figcaption>\n </div>\n\n\n\n <p class=\"kicker t30 tertiary color_mobile_tertiary\" style=\"\">Kommentar</p>\n <h1 class=\"headline mainTitle t104 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic\" style=\"\">Europa er i stor fare</h1>\n <h2 class=\"subtitle t27 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic\" style=\"\">Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer Ã¥ stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.</h2>\n\n\n\n <div data-element-guid=\"9de4147b-73b4-474b-8495-cb2eab90f884\" class=\"meta\">\n \n\n <div class=\"bylines\">\n <div data-element-guid=\"672684fa-4d02-4e34-8cec-d477f4038f6e\" class=\"byline column\" itemscope itemtype=\"http://schema.org/Person\">\n \n <div class=\"content\">\n <figure data-element-guid=\"a71b5c02-12f2-4e6e-8142-a4f1ad94c25e\">\n <picture>\n <img\n itemprop=\"image\"\n src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9839868.webp?imageId=9839868&width=360&height=360\"\n width=\"180\"\n height=\"180\"\n alt=\"Karsten Friis\">\n </picture>\n</figure>\n <address class=\"name\">\n <a rel=\"author\" itemprop=\"url\" href=\"mailto:kf@nupi.no\">\n <span class=\"lab-hidden-byline-name\" itemprop=\"name\">Karsten Friis</span>\n <span class=\"firstname \">Karsten</span>\n <span class=\"lastname \">Friis</span>\n </a>\n\n <span class=\"lab-hidden-byline-name\" itemprop=\"name\">Karsten Friis</span>\n <span class=\"description \">Forsker 1, NUPI</span>\n </address>\n </div>\n</div>\n\n \n </div>\n \n <div class=\"dates\">\n \n <span class=\"dateGroup datePublished\">\n <span class=\"dateLabel\">Publisert</span>\n <time datetime=\"2025-11-11T05:00:00.000Z\" title=\"Publisert 11.11.2025 - 06:00\">11.11.2025 - 06:00</time>\n </span>\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"read-time\">\n <span>Lesetid: <span class=\"read-time-value\">4 min</span></span>\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"social\">\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-social-facebook\" aria-label=\"Del pÃ¥ Facebook\"></a>\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"mailto:?subject=Europa%20er%20i%20stor%20fare&body=Kan%20ytre%20h%C3%B8yre%20vinne%20fram%20i%20Europa%20om%20vi%20ikke%20klarer%20%C3%A5%20stanse%20Vladimir%20Putin%20i%20Ukraina%3F%20Det%20er%20dessverre%20et%20fullt%20mulig%20utfall.%0Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-mail\" aria-label=\"Del via e-mail\"></a>\n </div>\n\n\n\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n \n\n \n <div data-element-guid=\"06df9145-00c6-468d-8c7d-b09b9d72989f\" class=\"placeholder fullWidth\">\n<div data-element-guid=\"57e68ae8-b4dc-4155-f568-3955a709400a\" class=\"column google-ad small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12 display-label\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"nettbanner1\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('nettbanner1');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n \n\n <div data-element-guid=\"9de4147b-73b4-474b-8495-cb2eab90f884\" class=\"bodytext large-12 small-12 medium-12\">\n \n \n\n <p> <span data-lab-italic=\"italic\" class=\"italic m-italic\">Dette er en kommentar. Holdninger og meninger i teksten stÃ¥r for skribentens regning.<br> </span></p><p>Se for deg følgende scenario. Europa 2029: Nigel Farage har blitt statsminister i Storbritannia, Marie le Pens Nasjonal Front styrer Frankrike, Alternativ for Tyskland kontrollerer Berlin, og Lov og Rett-partiet har vunnet tilbake makten i Polen. I tillegg har høyrepopulister konsolidert makten i resten av sentral- og Ãst-Europa, fra Ãsterrike til Tsjekkia, Slovakia, Ungarn, Romania, Moldova og Bulgaria.</p><p>Parallelt med dette har europeisk økonomi blitt kraftig svekket, det er sterk sosial uro knyttet til store flyktningstrømmer, og organisert kriminalitet med utgangspunkt i Russland festet et jerngrep over store deler av kontinentet.</p><div data-element-guid=\"6423cb22-b56e-4b00-9395-38ebd2b792f4\" class=\"quotebox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8\">\n \n <div class=\"content\"\n style=\"--bg-color: var(--); --text-color: var(--); \" \n >\n \n <h3 class=\"quote \"\n style=\"\">Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare.</h3>\n <p class=\"author dac-hidden\"\n style=\"\"></p>\n </div>\n</div>\n<p>Er dette kun et teoretisk mareritt scenario eller en realistisk mulighet? Jeg frykter at det dessverre er et fullt mulig utfall av dagens europeiske politikk â inkludert den norske.</p><div data-element-guid=\"b3a4d59a-bd6d-4f45-9dca-34eb78a85a0d\" class=\"column google-ad display-label widthFull\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"articleboard/board1\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('articleboard/board1');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n<p>Sakens kjerne er Ukraina. Utmattelseskrigen med Russland er i ferd med Ã¥ tippe i sistnevntes favør. De tar litt og litt land, de ødelegger strøm, vann, veier og jernbane, de terroriserer den ukrainske sivilbefolkningen hver eneste dag. Med dagens nivÃ¥ pÃ¥ vestlig støtte til Ukraina vil landet neppe klare Ã¥ stÃ¥ imot den russiske aggresjonen over tid. Det man bidrar med nÃ¥ vil i sÃ¥ fall være fullstendig bortkastet fordi det ikke er tilstrekkelig til Ã¥ stanse Russland. Det bidrar i stedet til en mer langsom død.</p><div data-element-guid=\"afef610d-32cf-45ce-8b00-8c21ead212e3\" id=\"markup_10050373\" class=\"markupbox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n\n \n\n \n\n <script data-wid=\"auto\" type=\"text/javascript\" src=\"https://content.viralize.tv/display/?zid=AAEU4R86_QAFkLJ0&cid=ABNYxNcQshbO8snQ\"></script>\n\n \n \n </div>\n</div>\n<p>Hva vil skje om Russland fortsetter Ã¥ kverne seg fram? NUPI legger i dag fram en rapport som har regnet pÃ¥ to scenarioer. Ett hvor Russland vinner fram og ødelegger Ukrainas framtidsutsikter, og ett hvor Ukraina klarer Ã¥ fÃ¥ et visst overtak og overlever som et selvstendig, demokratisk land. I det første scenarioet vil det blant annet føre til at flere mennesker flykter fra Ukraina. Om Russland for eksempel klarer Ã¥ ta seg fram mot Dnipro-eleven, og samtidig gjøre hele landet til en krigssone der det er vanskelig Ã¥ bo, vil det raskt kunne komme 4â6 millioner nye flyktninger. Bare de økonomiske utgiftene til dette vil langt overgÃ¥ det som gis i militær støtte fra Europa i dag. I tillegg vil det høyst sannsynlig skape sosial og politisk uro i land som Polen, Tyskland, og øst-Europeiske land.</p><article data-element-guid=\"56d62f35-2e78-4701-8f35-73ae95d789ae\" class=\"column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kommentar\" data-instance=\"10047300\" data-image-float=\"floatRight\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content bg-tertiary color_mobile_bg-tertiary op-bg_60 color_mobile_op-bg_60 border-bg-secondary mobile_border-bg-secondary vertical-text-align-center mobile-vertical-text-align-center hasContentPadding mobile-hasContentPadding hasBorder mobile-hasBorder\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"/kommentar/eus-kamp-mot-tek-oligarkene/10047300\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10047300\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"7cbbd2dc-db26-4f8a-9b53-350f7c27dd61\" class=\"desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\" style=\"width:184px;\">\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=webp\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=jpg\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=webp\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\"\n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n title=\"EUs kamp mot tek-oligarkene\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"vertically-aligned-text\">\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline t19 tm14\"\n style=\"\"\n >EUs kamp mot tek-oligarkene\n</h2>\n\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-10T06:02:00+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<p>Videre vil et Ukraina i unntakstilstand gradvis erodere sine relativt svake demokratiske institusjoner. Ãkonomien er ogsÃ¥ unormal, med store summer som kommer inn gjennom utenlandske donorer i stedet for gjennom skatter, avgifter og økonomisk vekst. Organisert kriminalitet stortrives under slike forhold â og den foregÃ¥r pÃ¥ tvers av landegrenser. Russiske og ukrainske kriminelle har ingen samarbeidsproblemer. Politikk og organisert kriminalitet blir fortere sammenvevd i slike situasjoner, og kan utgjøre en symbiose som kan være svært nyttig for Kreml. Oppildnet av fremgang i Ukraina kan Moskva søke Ã¥ svekke ikke bare det ukrainske demokratiet, men ogsÃ¥ Moldova, Romania, Serbia og sÃ¥ videre. Dette har vi jo allerede sett at de forsøker. Men med fremgang i Ukraina er sjansene mye større for at de lykkes. PÃ¥virkningsoperasjoner og innblanding i valg er enklere nÃ¥r det er stor sosial misnøye i befolkningen.</p><p>Som om ikke dette var nok, skal man absolutt ikke se bort ifra at Washington i en slik situasjon vil se med sympatiske øyne pÃ¥ det Russland gjør. Donald Trump og visepresident J D Vance støtter jo Ã¥penlyst de høyreradikale partiene i Europa. Trump har jo ogsÃ¥ en tendens til Ã¥ snu kappen etter vinden og støtte de han antar er i medvind â i dette tilfellet Russland.</p><div data-element-guid=\"78eb922b-4961-4c8a-e9a3-24c8455fa4d0\" class=\"column google-ad display-label widthFull\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"articleboard/board2\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('articleboard/board2');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n<p>Europa er etter mitt skjønn i stor fare, og om ikke europeiske politikere viser handlekraft kan det gÃ¥ riktig ille. Den gode nyheten er at det er fullt mulig og egentlig ikke sÃ¥ politisk krevende Ã¥ hindre en slik utvikling. Det er det NUPI-rapporten beskriver som scenario 2. Men det fordrer at man er villig til Ã¥ ta litt mer sjanser, og tenke langsiktig og strategisk.</p><p>For det første mÃ¥ man si rett ut at mÃ¥let er at Ukraina skal vinne krigen. Man mÃ¥ slutte med vage formuleringer som at man er «med Ukraina i hundre Ã¥r» eller «sÃ¥ lenge som det trengs» â for det blir ingen forhandling med Putin før han ser seg tjent med Ã¥ avslutte krigen. Med slike vage formuleringer blir ogsÃ¥ innsatsen halvhjertet. Ukrainsk seier betyr ikke full gjenerobring av alt okkupert land, men at staten overlever, og at man er sterk nok militært til Ã¥ stanse de pÃ¥gÃ¥ende angrepene.</p><article data-element-guid=\"2b2b785b-1c98-4603-87de-c1c6097ef2f7\" class=\"column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kommentar\" data-instance=\"10047272\" data-image-float=\"floatRight\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content bg-tertiary color_mobile_bg-tertiary op-bg_60 color_mobile_op-bg_60 border-bg-secondary mobile_border-bg-secondary vertical-text-align-center mobile-vertical-text-align-center hasContentPadding mobile-hasContentPadding hasBorder mobile-hasBorder\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"/kommentar/charlie-og-ingrid-olina/10047272\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10047272\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"7b7122d5-e3ce-4e0f-9606-cb715eff68c3\" class=\"desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\" style=\"width:184px;\">\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=webp\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=jpg\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=webp\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\"\n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n title=\"Charlie og Ingrid Olina\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"vertically-aligned-text\">\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline t19 tm14\"\n style=\"\"\n >Charlie og Ingrid Olina\n</h2>\n\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-09T17:41:22+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<p>For det andre bør Europa meisle ut en egen strategi for Ã¥ oppnÃ¥ denne seieren pÃ¥ en mÃ¥te som involverer og inkluderer USA, men som ikke er avhengig av USAs ressurser for Ã¥ lykkes. Men det er fortsatt avgjørende Ã¥ holde USA «inne», det vil si pÃ¥ Europa og Ukrainas side og ikke Russlands, all den tid dette dreier seg om Europas framtid, ikke bare Ukrainas. </p><p>For det tredje mÃ¥ Europa bidra langt mer. Her mÃ¥ man snarest finne en mÃ¥te Ã¥ frigjøre de frosne russiske sentralbankmidlene pÃ¥. Ukraina trenger mye mer penger slik at de kan øke produksjonskapasiteten i egen forsvarsindustri, og samtidig kjøpe de vÃ¥pnene de trenger. </p><div data-element-guid=\"529a7c31-c5c7-4854-b8be-2be261b6e7b8\" class=\"column google-ad display-label widthFull\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"articleboard/board3\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('articleboard/board3');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n<p>Norge mÃ¥ ogsÃ¥ gjøre mye mer. Det aller viktigste regjeringen kan gjøre er Ã¥ bruke vÃ¥r oljeformue pÃ¥ en strategisk mÃ¥te. Dagens Nansen-pakke er bra den, men burde vært langt større. Det er fullt mulig innenfor handlingsregelen. Samtidig burde regjeringen funnet smarte mÃ¥ter Ã¥ kunne bidra med oljefondet uten at det politiseres. Ãkonomer og andre eksperter har foreslÃ¥tt flere løsninger, som Ã¥ <a href=\"https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/norway-should-guarantee-eu-ukraine-loan-secured-by-russian-assets-by-havard-halland-3-and-knut-anton-mork-2025-10\">garantere</a> for lÃ¥net knyttet til de frosne russiske midlene, eller Ã¥ lage et eget <a href=\"https://www.dn.no/kronikk/sikkerhetspolitikk/finans/oljefondet/oljefondet-kan-finansiere-europas-opprustning/2-1-1781171\">forsvarsfond</a>. Det fordrer kreativ tenkning i Finansdepartementet.</p><p>Det er vanskelig Ã¥ sette en prislapp pÃ¥ risikoen ved en ukrainsk kollaps, men alternativet kan være tidenes beste investering i vÃ¥r â og neste generasjons â fremtid, velferd og sikkerhet. Poenget i NUPI-rapporten er at det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier. </p><p>Alternativet til at Europa â og Norge â tar seg sammen, er svært dystert. Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare, men denne utviklingen kan stanses av visjonære politikere som tør Ã¥ stÃ¥ fram. Hvem tar ballen?</p><p class=\"italic m-italic\" data-lab-italic=\"italic\">FÃ¥ nyhetsbrev fra Dagsavisen. Meld deg pÃ¥ <a href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/om-dagsavisen/2023/12/20/fa-daglig-nyhetsbrev/\">her</a>!</p><article data-element-guid=\"96b41fb6-cf84-4656-9b5f-1b16012b7944\" class=\"column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kommentar\" data-instance=\"10043628\" data-image-float=\"floatRight\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content bg-tertiary color_mobile_bg-tertiary op-bg_60 color_mobile_op-bg_60 border-bg-secondary mobile_border-bg-secondary vertical-text-align-center mobile-vertical-text-align-center hasContentPadding mobile-hasContentPadding hasBorder mobile-hasBorder\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"/kommentar/sosialisme-the-american-way/10043628\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10043628\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"0d9df18b-33c0-4b4e-afff-612919b591f1\" class=\"desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\" style=\"width:184px;\">\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=webp\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=jpg\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=webp\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\"\n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n title=\"Sosialisme the american way\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"vertically-aligned-text\">\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline t19 tm14\"\n style=\"\"\n >Sosialisme the american way\n</h2>\n\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-08T06:00:00+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n\n\n \n\n \n</div>\n\n\n \n\n\n \n<div data-element-guid=\"9de4147b-73b4-474b-8495-cb2eab90f884\" class=\"column articleFooter\">\n <span class=\"tags\">\n <a href=\"/tags/ukraina\">ukraina</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/vladimir%20putin\">vladimir putin</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/kommentar\">kommentar</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/karsten%20friis\">karsten friis</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/h%C3%B8yrepopulisme\">høyrepopulisme</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/europa\">europa</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/nupi-rapport\">nupi-rapport</a>\n </span>\n \n</div>\n\n\n <div class=\"row social\">\n <div class=\"column large-12 small-12\">\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-social-facebook\" aria-label=\"Del pÃ¥ Facebook\"></a>\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"mailto:?subject=Europa%20er%20i%20stor%20fare&body=Kan%20ytre%20h%C3%B8yre%20vinne%20fram%20i%20Europa%20om%20vi%20ikke%20klarer%20%C3%A5%20stanse%20Vladimir%20Putin%20i%20Ukraina%3F%20Det%20er%20dessverre%20et%20fullt%20mulig%20utfall.%0Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-mail\" aria-label=\"Del via e-mail\"></a>\n </div>\n </div>\n\n </section>\n \n </article>\n <section class=\"related desktop-fullWidth mobile-fullWidth fullwidthTarget\">\n <div data-element-guid=\"2dd59dbd-edb7-4e5d-8690-afb97c71a424\" class=\"page-content\"><div data-element-guid=\"5baaa530-dfff-4f21-ab66-80a97df071d2\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\">\n<!-- placeholder(#1) -->\n<div data-element-guid=\"4805cf9b-dc88-401a-bb9f-464f51a625ba\" class=\"front_rows small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12 large-12 small-12\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n \n <div data-element-guid=\"5de07c53-01d3-47bb-be6e-597a6a6b37d8\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><div data-element-guid=\"676e9362-fb2a-47e1-871b-5e0b8006f50c\" id=\"markup_9634045\" class=\"markupbox column small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n\n \n\n \n\n <div id=\"belowarticle\"></div>\n\n \n \n </div>\n</div>\n</div>\n<div data-element-guid=\"e815b6f3-e10a-47f1-8a8e-5e3579dc2696\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><div data-element-guid=\"64458b00-1581-4327-8268-468fcee6b7cb\" id=\"markup_9634042\" class=\"markupbox column small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n\n \n\n \n\n <div class=\"strossle-widget\"></div>\n\n \n \n </div>\n</div>\n</div>\n<div data-element-guid=\"c83a61a6-4990-4ad2-b189-b0a9a81d9b88\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><article data-element-guid=\"895f4156-0195-463e-949c-d6aaae7fcf4b\" class=\"column paywall small-12 large-6 small-abs-12 large-abs-6 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kommentar\" data-instance=\"4218051\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/kommentar/til-vm-for-a-prestere/10057005\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10057005\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"3614a30f-58c1-493c-8acc-168df1442d63\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057096.jpg?imageId=10057096&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=1058&height=478&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"529\"\n height=\"239\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057096.jpg?imageId=10057096&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=1058&height=478&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"529\"\n height=\"239\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057096.jpg?imageId=10057096&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057096.jpg?imageId=10057096&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057096.jpg?imageId=10057096&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Til VM for Ã¥ prestere\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Til VM for Ã¥ prestere\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-14T11:30:14+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<article data-element-guid=\"473ec2fa-f836-4cf2-a0a3-1b97110fb0d5\" class=\"column small-12 large-6 small-abs-12 large-abs-6 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"nyheter\" data-instance=\"4218053\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/eide-om-angrepet-mot-kyiv-i-natt-et-brutalt-luftangrep-mot-sivile/10057554\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10057554\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"4bcefc7a-ca20-47eb-9f62-91e85dd42b68\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057551.jpg?imageId=10057551&width=1058&height=478&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"529\"\n height=\"239\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057551.jpg?imageId=10057551&width=1058&height=478&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"529\"\n height=\"239\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057551.jpg?imageId=10057551&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057551.jpg?imageId=10057551&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057551.jpg?imageId=10057551&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Eide om angrepet mot Kyiv i natt: â Et brutalt luftangrep mot sivile\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >â Et brutalt luftangrep mot sivile\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-14T11:21:16+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n</div>\n<div data-element-guid=\"461b530d-6b58-48c7-a571-65f80d0a20fa\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><article data-element-guid=\"1e307260-578a-4dbb-affc-9f647329d614\" class=\"column paywall small-12 large-4 small-abs-12 large-abs-4 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kultur\" data-instance=\"4218055\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/kultur/nadelost-og-naert-om-de-elendige/10057114\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10057114\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"587be6fa-c40c-4cda-82ed-b3afd56f0acd\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057365.jpg?imageId=10057365&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057365.jpg?imageId=10057365&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057365.jpg?imageId=10057365&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057365.jpg?imageId=10057365&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057365.jpg?imageId=10057365&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"NÃ¥deløst og nært om de elendige\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >NÃ¥deløst og nært om de elendige\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-14T11:17:17+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<article data-element-guid=\"366440f1-900c-4d50-b20b-7b95190ac977\" class=\"column small-12 large-4 small-abs-12 large-abs-4 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"nyheter\" data-instance=\"4218057\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/mdg-krever-full-stans-for-alle-nye-oljetillatelser/10057284\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10057284\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"a08dfbde-734f-4f76-bd8c-f25aa3fb846e\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9930239.jpg?imageId=9930239&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9930239.jpg?imageId=9930239&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9930239.jpg?imageId=9930239&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9930239.jpg?imageId=9930239&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9930239.jpg?imageId=9930239&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"MDG krever full stans for alle nye oljetillatelser\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Krever full stans for alle nye oljetillatelser\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-14T10:26:04+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<article data-element-guid=\"49eb7884-5c37-4637-ae01-ed97a7d59a36\" class=\"column small-12 large-4 small-abs-12 large-abs-4 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"nyheter\" data-instance=\"4218059\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/hoyre-ber-arbeidsministeren-forklare-seg-om-nav-saken/10057022\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10057022\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"8102e4b1-b0af-4fa2-99eb-feec6e92e844\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057021.jpg?imageId=10057021&panox=0.00&panoy=11.39&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=23.57&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057021.jpg?imageId=10057021&panox=0.00&panoy=11.39&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=23.57&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057021.jpg?imageId=10057021&panox=0.00&panoy=11.39&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=23.57&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057021.jpg?imageId=10057021&panox=0.00&panoy=11.39&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=23.57&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10057021.jpg?imageId=10057021&panox=0.00&panoy=11.39&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=23.57&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Høyre ber arbeidsministeren forklare seg om Nav-saken\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Høyre ber arbeidsministeren forklare seg om Nav-saken\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-14T09:03:56+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n</div>\n\n </div>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n</div>\n\n </section>\n </main>\n <div data-element-guid=\"584cde7b-e755-4c13-fc60-1b26ac12b39e\" class=\"placeholder placement-left\">\n<div 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mobile-space-outsideBottom-none bg-tertiary color_mobile_bg-tertiary hasContentPadding mobile-hasContentPadding\" style=\"\"><div data-element-guid=\"e47daa55-9f2d-458c-84fa-7678801e0a74\" class=\"column text_singleline small-12 large-3 small-abs-12 large-abs-3\">\n <style></style>\n <h2 class=\"content singleline t16 tm17\" style=\" \">\n <span data-lab-text_size_desktop=\"20\" class=\"t20 font-weight-bold m-font-weight-bold font-PTSerif\" data-lab-font_weight_desktop=\"font-weight-bold\" data-lab-fontface=\"PTSerif\">DAGSAVISEN<br></span>\n<br><span data-lab-fontface=\"PTSerif\" class=\"font-PTSerif\">Sjefredaktør: <a href=\"mailto:Lars.West.Johnsen@dagsavisen.no\" class=\"primary color_mobile_primary\" data-lab-text_color_desktop=\"primary\">Lars West Johnsen</a>\n<br>Adm. direktør: <a href=\"mailto:nina.kordahl@dagsavisen.no\" class=\"primary color_mobile_primary\" data-lab-text_color_desktop=\"primary\">Nina Kordahl</a>\n<br>Nyhetsredaktør (konst.): <a href=\"mailto:tore.ryssdalsnes@dagsavisen.no\" class=\"primary color_mobile_primary\" data-lab-text_color_desktop=\"primary\">Tore Ryssdalsnes</a>\n<br>Nyhetsredaktør: <a href=\"mailto:kathleen.buer@dagsavisen.no\" class=\"primary color_mobile_primary\" data-lab-text_color_desktop=\"primary\">Kathleen Buer </a>(permisjon)\n<br>Kulturredaktør: <a href=\"mailto:mode.steinkjer@dagsavisen.no\" class=\"primary color_mobile_primary\" data-lab-text_color_desktop=\"primary\" target=\"_blank\">Mode Steinkjer</a> </span>\n </h2>\n</div><div data-element-guid=\"48f44d45-4e34-470b-a0ae-74f9602c1356\" class=\"column text_singleline small-12 large-3 small-abs-12 large-abs-3\">\n <style></style>\n <h2 class=\"content singleline t16 tm17 font-PTSerif\" style=\" \">\n <br><br>Desksjef:\n<a href=\"mailto:espen.rusdal@dagsavisen.no\" class=\"primary color_mobile_primary\" data-lab-text_color_desktop=\"primary\">Espen HÃ¥gensen Rusdal</a><br>Nyhetssjef: <a href=\"mailto:ines.zander@dagsavisen.no\" class=\"primary color_mobile_primary\" data-lab-text_color_desktop=\"primary\">Ines Margot Zander</a> (permisjon) <br>Nyhetsleder: <a href=\"mailto:jorn.henriksen.skjaerpe@dagsavisen.no\" class=\"primary color_mobile_primary\" data-lab-text_color_desktop=\"primary\">Jørn H. 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Version 2
2025-11-11 19:32:06
Et autoritært Europa er en reell fare
UPDATE
Author: Karsten Friis
Published: 2025-11-11 05:00:00
Updated: 2025-11-11 05:00:00
📝 Summary
Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.
🏷️ Tags & Keywords
Keywords: ukraina, vladimir putin, kommentar, karsten friis, høyrepopulisme, europa, nupi-rapport
Tags: ukraina, vladimir putin, kommentar, karsten friis, høyrepopulisme, europa, nupi-rapport
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alt="Det blir veldig mye dyrere å la Russland vinne krigen fremfor å investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. På bildet ser en kvinne på en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovestad Kyiv."
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<figcaption itemprop="caption" class="">Det blir veldig mye dyrere å la Russland vinne krigen fremfor å investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. På bildet ser en kvinne på en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovedstad Kyiv.</figcaption>
<figcaption itemprop="author" class="" data-byline-prefix="">FOTO: Alina Smutko / NTB</figcaption>
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<p class="kicker t30 tertiary color_mobile_tertiary" style="">Kommentar</p>
<h1 class="headline mainTitle t104 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic" style="">Europa er i stor fare</h1>
<h2 class="subtitle t27 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic" style="">Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.</h2>
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<address class="name">
<a rel="author" itemprop="url" href="mailto:kf@nupi.no">
<span class="lab-hidden-byline-name" itemprop="name">Karsten Friis</span>
<span class="firstname ">Karsten</span>
<span class="lastname ">Friis</span>
</a>
<span class="lab-hidden-byline-name" itemprop="name">Karsten Friis</span>
<span class="description ">Forsker 1, NUPI</span>
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<span class="dateLabel">Publisert</span>
<time datetime="2025-11-11T05:00:00.000Z" title="Publisert 11.11.2025 - 06:00">11.11.2025 - 06:00</time>
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<span>Lesetid: <span class="read-time-value">4 min</span></span>
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<p> <span data-lab-italic="italic" class="italic m-italic">Dette er en kommentar. Holdninger og meninger i teksten stÃ¥r for skribentens regning.<br> </span></p><p>Se for deg følgende scenario. Europa 2029: Nigel Farage har blitt statsminister i Storbritannia, Marie le Pens Nasjonal Front styrer Frankrike, Alternativ for Tyskland kontrollerer Berlin, og Lov og Rett-partiet har vunnet tilbake makten i Polen. I tillegg har høyrepopulister konsolidert makten i resten av sentral- og Ãst-Europa, fra Ãsterrike til Tsjekkia, Slovakia, Ungarn, Romania, Moldova og Bulgaria.</p><p>Parallelt med dette har europeisk økonomi blitt kraftig svekket, det er sterk sosial uro knyttet til store flyktningstrømmer, og organisert kriminalitet med utgangspunkt i Russland festet et jerngrep over store deler av kontinentet.</p><div data-element-guid="6423cb22-b56e-4b00-9395-38ebd2b792f4" class="quotebox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8">
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<h3 class="quote "
style="">Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare.</h3>
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style=""></p>
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<p>Er dette kun et teoretisk mareritt scenario eller en realistisk mulighet? Jeg frykter at det dessverre er et fullt mulig utfall av dagens europeiske politikk â inkludert den norske.</p><div data-element-guid="97b4e2b7-a6b0-42f1-a215-f43aa49c37ec" class="column google-ad display-label widthFull" style="">
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<p>Sakens kjerne er Ukraina. Utmattelseskrigen med Russland er i ferd med å tippe i sistnevntes favør. De tar litt og litt land, de ødelegger strøm, vann, veier og jernbane, de terroriserer den ukrainske sivilbefolkningen hver eneste dag. Med dagens nivå på vestlig støtte til Ukraina vil landet neppe klare å stå imot den russiske aggresjonen over tid. Det man bidrar med nå vil i så fall være fullstendig bortkastet fordi det ikke er tilstrekkelig til å stanse Russland. Det bidrar i stedet til en mer langsom død.</p><div data-element-guid="afef610d-32cf-45ce-8b00-8c21ead212e3" id="markup_10050373" class="markupbox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8">
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<p>Hva vil skje om Russland fortsetter Ã¥ kverne seg fram? NUPI legger i dag fram en rapport som har regnet pÃ¥ to scenarioer. Ett hvor Russland vinner fram og ødelegger Ukrainas framtidsutsikter, og ett hvor Ukraina klarer Ã¥ fÃ¥ et visst overtak og overlever som et selvstendig, demokratisk land. I det første scenarioet vil det blant annet føre til at flere mennesker flykter fra Ukraina. Om Russland for eksempel klarer Ã¥ ta seg fram mot Dnipro-eleven, og samtidig gjøre hele landet til en krigssone der det er vanskelig Ã¥ bo, vil det raskt kunne komme 4â6 millioner nye flyktninger. Bare de økonomiske utgiftene til dette vil langt overgÃ¥ det som gis i militær støtte fra Europa i dag. I tillegg vil det høyst sannsynlig skape sosial og politisk uro i land som Polen, Tyskland, og øst-Europeiske land.</p><article data-element-guid="56d62f35-2e78-4701-8f35-73ae95d789ae" class="column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 " data-site-alias="dagsavisen" data-section="kommentar" data-instance="10047300" data-image-float="floatRight" itemscope>
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<p>Videre vil et Ukraina i unntakstilstand gradvis erodere sine relativt svake demokratiske institusjoner. Ãkonomien er ogsÃ¥ unormal, med store summer som kommer inn gjennom utenlandske donorer i stedet for gjennom skatter, avgifter og økonomisk vekst. Organisert kriminalitet stortrives under slike forhold â og den foregÃ¥r pÃ¥ tvers av landegrenser. Russiske og ukrainske kriminelle har ingen samarbeidsproblemer. Politikk og organisert kriminalitet blir fortere sammenvevd i slike situasjoner, og kan utgjøre en symbiose som kan være svært nyttig for Kreml. Oppildnet av fremgang i Ukraina kan Moskva søke Ã¥ svekke ikke bare det ukrainske demokratiet, men ogsÃ¥ Moldova, Romania, Serbia og sÃ¥ videre. Dette har vi jo allerede sett at de forsøker. Men med fremgang i Ukraina er sjansene mye større for at de lykkes. PÃ¥virkningsoperasjoner og innblanding i valg er enklere nÃ¥r det er stor sosial misnøye i befolkningen.</p><p>Som om ikke dette var nok, skal man absolutt ikke se bort ifra at Washington i en slik situasjon vil se med sympatiske øyne pÃ¥ det Russland gjør. Donald Trump og visepresident J D Vance støtter jo Ã¥penlyst de høyreradikale partiene i Europa. Trump har jo ogsÃ¥ en tendens til Ã¥ snu kappen etter vinden og støtte de han antar er i medvind â i dette tilfellet Russland.</p><div data-element-guid="b9622a53-e84d-4b5e-fe5a-6427e7ea4456" class="column google-ad display-label widthFull" style="">
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<p>Europa er etter mitt skjønn i stor fare, og om ikke europeiske politikere viser handlekraft kan det gÃ¥ riktig ille. Den gode nyheten er at det er fullt mulig og egentlig ikke sÃ¥ politisk krevende Ã¥ hindre en slik utvikling. Det er det NUPI-rapporten beskriver som scenario 2. Men det fordrer at man er villig til Ã¥ ta litt mer sjanser, og tenke langsiktig og strategisk.</p><p>For det første mÃ¥ man si rett ut at mÃ¥let er at Ukraina skal vinne krigen. Man mÃ¥ slutte med vage formuleringer som at man er «med Ukraina i hundre Ã¥r» eller «sÃ¥ lenge som det trengs» â for det blir ingen forhandling med Putin før han ser seg tjent med Ã¥ avslutte krigen. Med slike vage formuleringer blir ogsÃ¥ innsatsen halvhjertet. Ukrainsk seier betyr ikke full gjenerobring av alt okkupert land, men at staten overlever, og at man er sterk nok militært til Ã¥ stanse de pÃ¥gÃ¥ende angrepene.</p><article data-element-guid="2b2b785b-1c98-4603-87de-c1c6097ef2f7" class="column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 " data-site-alias="dagsavisen" data-section="kommentar" data-instance="10047272" data-image-float="floatRight" itemscope>
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<p>For det andre bør Europa meisle ut en egen strategi for å oppnå denne seieren på en måte som involverer og inkluderer USA, men som ikke er avhengig av USAs ressurser for å lykkes. Men det er fortsatt avgjørende å holde USA «inne», det vil si på Europa og Ukrainas side og ikke Russlands, all den tid dette dreier seg om Europas framtid, ikke bare Ukrainas. </p><p>For det tredje må Europa bidra langt mer. Her må man snarest finne en måte å frigjøre de frosne russiske sentralbankmidlene på. Ukraina trenger mye mer penger slik at de kan øke produksjonskapasiteten i egen forsvarsindustri, og samtidig kjøpe de våpnene de trenger. </p><div data-element-guid="0654166e-766d-43a5-88d5-a0f4498d6c60" class="column google-ad display-label widthFull" style="">
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<p>Norge mÃ¥ ogsÃ¥ gjøre mye mer. Det aller viktigste regjeringen kan gjøre er Ã¥ bruke vÃ¥r oljeformue pÃ¥ en strategisk mÃ¥te. Dagens Nansen-pakke er bra den, men burde vært langt større. Det er fullt mulig innenfor handlingsregelen. Samtidig burde regjeringen funnet smarte mÃ¥ter Ã¥ kunne bidra med oljefondet uten at det politiseres. Ãkonomer og andre eksperter har foreslÃ¥tt flere løsninger, som Ã¥ <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/norway-should-guarantee-eu-ukraine-loan-secured-by-russian-assets-by-havard-halland-3-and-knut-anton-mork-2025-10">garantere</a> for lÃ¥net knyttet til de frosne russiske midlene, eller Ã¥ lage et eget <a href="https://www.dn.no/kronikk/sikkerhetspolitikk/finans/oljefondet/oljefondet-kan-finansiere-europas-opprustning/2-1-1781171">forsvarsfond</a>. Det fordrer kreativ tenkning i Finansdepartementet.</p><p>Det er vanskelig Ã¥ sette en prislapp pÃ¥ risikoen ved en ukrainsk kollaps, men alternativet kan være tidenes beste investering i vÃ¥r â og neste generasjons â fremtid, velferd og sikkerhet. Poenget i NUPI-rapporten er at det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier. </p><p>Alternativet til at Europa â og Norge â tar seg sammen, er svært dystert. Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare, men denne utviklingen kan stanses av visjonære politikere som tør Ã¥ stÃ¥ fram. Hvem tar ballen?</p><p class="italic m-italic" data-lab-italic="italic">FÃ¥ nyhetsbrev fra Dagsavisen. Meld deg pÃ¥ <a href="https://www.dagsavisen.no/om-dagsavisen/2023/12/20/fa-daglig-nyhetsbrev/">her</a>!</p><article data-element-guid="96b41fb6-cf84-4656-9b5f-1b16012b7944" class="column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 " data-site-alias="dagsavisen" data-section="kommentar" data-instance="10043628" data-image-float="floatRight" itemscope>
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PÃ¥ bildet ser en kvinne pÃ¥ en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovedstad Kyiv.\"\n alt=\"Det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne krigen fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. PÃ¥ bildet ser en kvinne pÃ¥ en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovestad Kyiv.\" \n \n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\"></div>\n </div>\n\n\n <div class=\"caption \" data-showmore=\"Vis mer\">\n <figcaption itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"\">Det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne krigen fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. PÃ¥ bildet ser en kvinne pÃ¥ en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovedstad Kyiv.</figcaption>\n <figcaption itemprop=\"author\" class=\"\" data-byline-prefix=\"\">FOTO: Alina Smutko / NTB</figcaption>\n </div>\n\n\n\n <p class=\"kicker t30 tertiary color_mobile_tertiary\" style=\"\">Kommentar</p>\n <h1 class=\"headline mainTitle t104 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic\" style=\"\">Europa er i stor fare</h1>\n <h2 class=\"subtitle t27 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic\" style=\"\">Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer Ã¥ stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.</h2>\n\n\n\n <div data-element-guid=\"5f739e31-2d87-4865-a1bb-aac9045af601\" class=\"meta\">\n \n\n <div class=\"bylines\">\n <div data-element-guid=\"672684fa-4d02-4e34-8cec-d477f4038f6e\" class=\"byline column\" itemscope itemtype=\"http://schema.org/Person\">\n \n <div class=\"content\">\n <figure data-element-guid=\"a71b5c02-12f2-4e6e-8142-a4f1ad94c25e\">\n <picture>\n <img\n itemprop=\"image\"\n src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9839868.webp?imageId=9839868&width=360&height=360\"\n width=\"180\"\n height=\"180\"\n alt=\"Karsten Friis\">\n </picture>\n</figure>\n <address class=\"name\">\n <a rel=\"author\" itemprop=\"url\" href=\"mailto:kf@nupi.no\">\n <span class=\"lab-hidden-byline-name\" itemprop=\"name\">Karsten Friis</span>\n <span class=\"firstname \">Karsten</span>\n <span class=\"lastname \">Friis</span>\n </a>\n\n <span class=\"lab-hidden-byline-name\" itemprop=\"name\">Karsten Friis</span>\n <span class=\"description \">Forsker 1, NUPI</span>\n </address>\n </div>\n</div>\n\n \n </div>\n \n <div class=\"dates\">\n \n <span class=\"dateGroup datePublished\">\n <span class=\"dateLabel\">Publisert</span>\n <time datetime=\"2025-11-11T05:00:00.000Z\" title=\"Publisert 11.11.2025 - 06:00\">11.11.2025 - 06:00</time>\n </span>\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"read-time\">\n <span>Lesetid: <span class=\"read-time-value\">4 min</span></span>\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"social\">\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-social-facebook\" aria-label=\"Del pÃ¥ Facebook\"></a>\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"mailto:?subject=Europa%20er%20i%20stor%20fare&body=Kan%20ytre%20h%C3%B8yre%20vinne%20fram%20i%20Europa%20om%20vi%20ikke%20klarer%20%C3%A5%20stanse%20Vladimir%20Putin%20i%20Ukraina%3F%20Det%20er%20dessverre%20et%20fullt%20mulig%20utfall.%0Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-mail\" aria-label=\"Del via e-mail\"></a>\n </div>\n\n\n\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n \n\n \n <div data-element-guid=\"8c844e4c-09d3-43eb-bbf5-57ec4d7b1ac0\" class=\"placeholder fullWidth\">\n<div data-element-guid=\"cd41510e-80a8-4e1f-cd03-db9e2958233d\" class=\"column google-ad small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12 display-label\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"nettbanner1\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('nettbanner1');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n \n\n <div data-element-guid=\"5f739e31-2d87-4865-a1bb-aac9045af601\" class=\"bodytext large-12 small-12 medium-12\">\n \n \n\n <p> <span data-lab-italic=\"italic\" class=\"italic m-italic\">Dette er en kommentar. Holdninger og meninger i teksten stÃ¥r for skribentens regning.<br> </span></p><p>Se for deg følgende scenario. Europa 2029: Nigel Farage har blitt statsminister i Storbritannia, Marie le Pens Nasjonal Front styrer Frankrike, Alternativ for Tyskland kontrollerer Berlin, og Lov og Rett-partiet har vunnet tilbake makten i Polen. I tillegg har høyrepopulister konsolidert makten i resten av sentral- og Ãst-Europa, fra Ãsterrike til Tsjekkia, Slovakia, Ungarn, Romania, Moldova og Bulgaria.</p><p>Parallelt med dette har europeisk økonomi blitt kraftig svekket, det er sterk sosial uro knyttet til store flyktningstrømmer, og organisert kriminalitet med utgangspunkt i Russland festet et jerngrep over store deler av kontinentet.</p><div data-element-guid=\"6423cb22-b56e-4b00-9395-38ebd2b792f4\" class=\"quotebox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8\">\n \n <div class=\"content\"\n style=\"--bg-color: var(--); --text-color: var(--); \" \n >\n \n <h3 class=\"quote \"\n style=\"\">Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare.</h3>\n <p class=\"author dac-hidden\"\n style=\"\"></p>\n </div>\n</div>\n<p>Er dette kun et teoretisk mareritt scenario eller en realistisk mulighet? Jeg frykter at det dessverre er et fullt mulig utfall av dagens europeiske politikk â inkludert den norske.</p><div data-element-guid=\"97b4e2b7-a6b0-42f1-a215-f43aa49c37ec\" class=\"column google-ad display-label widthFull\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"articleboard/board1\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('articleboard/board1');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n<p>Sakens kjerne er Ukraina. Utmattelseskrigen med Russland er i ferd med Ã¥ tippe i sistnevntes favør. De tar litt og litt land, de ødelegger strøm, vann, veier og jernbane, de terroriserer den ukrainske sivilbefolkningen hver eneste dag. Med dagens nivÃ¥ pÃ¥ vestlig støtte til Ukraina vil landet neppe klare Ã¥ stÃ¥ imot den russiske aggresjonen over tid. Det man bidrar med nÃ¥ vil i sÃ¥ fall være fullstendig bortkastet fordi det ikke er tilstrekkelig til Ã¥ stanse Russland. Det bidrar i stedet til en mer langsom død.</p><div data-element-guid=\"afef610d-32cf-45ce-8b00-8c21ead212e3\" id=\"markup_10050373\" class=\"markupbox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n\n \n\n \n\n <script data-wid=\"auto\" type=\"text/javascript\" src=\"https://content.viralize.tv/display/?zid=AAEU4R86_QAFkLJ0&cid=ABNYxNcQshbO8snQ\"></script>\n\n \n \n </div>\n</div>\n<p>Hva vil skje om Russland fortsetter Ã¥ kverne seg fram? NUPI legger i dag fram en rapport som har regnet pÃ¥ to scenarioer. Ett hvor Russland vinner fram og ødelegger Ukrainas framtidsutsikter, og ett hvor Ukraina klarer Ã¥ fÃ¥ et visst overtak og overlever som et selvstendig, demokratisk land. I det første scenarioet vil det blant annet føre til at flere mennesker flykter fra Ukraina. Om Russland for eksempel klarer Ã¥ ta seg fram mot Dnipro-eleven, og samtidig gjøre hele landet til en krigssone der det er vanskelig Ã¥ bo, vil det raskt kunne komme 4â6 millioner nye flyktninger. Bare de økonomiske utgiftene til dette vil langt overgÃ¥ det som gis i militær støtte fra Europa i dag. I tillegg vil det høyst sannsynlig skape sosial og politisk uro i land som Polen, Tyskland, og øst-Europeiske land.</p><article data-element-guid=\"56d62f35-2e78-4701-8f35-73ae95d789ae\" class=\"column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kommentar\" data-instance=\"10047300\" data-image-float=\"floatRight\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content bg-tertiary color_mobile_bg-tertiary op-bg_60 color_mobile_op-bg_60 border-bg-secondary mobile_border-bg-secondary vertical-text-align-center mobile-vertical-text-align-center hasContentPadding mobile-hasContentPadding hasBorder mobile-hasBorder\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"/kommentar/eus-kamp-mot-tek-oligarkene/10047300\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10047300\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"7cbbd2dc-db26-4f8a-9b53-350f7c27dd61\" class=\"desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\" style=\"width:184px;\">\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=webp\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=jpg\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=webp\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\"\n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n title=\"EUs kamp mot tek-oligarkene\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"vertically-aligned-text\">\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline t19 tm14\"\n style=\"\"\n >EUs kamp mot tek-oligarkene\n</h2>\n\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-10T06:02:00+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<p>Videre vil et Ukraina i unntakstilstand gradvis erodere sine relativt svake demokratiske institusjoner. Ãkonomien er ogsÃ¥ unormal, med store summer som kommer inn gjennom utenlandske donorer i stedet for gjennom skatter, avgifter og økonomisk vekst. Organisert kriminalitet stortrives under slike forhold â og den foregÃ¥r pÃ¥ tvers av landegrenser. Russiske og ukrainske kriminelle har ingen samarbeidsproblemer. Politikk og organisert kriminalitet blir fortere sammenvevd i slike situasjoner, og kan utgjøre en symbiose som kan være svært nyttig for Kreml. Oppildnet av fremgang i Ukraina kan Moskva søke Ã¥ svekke ikke bare det ukrainske demokratiet, men ogsÃ¥ Moldova, Romania, Serbia og sÃ¥ videre. Dette har vi jo allerede sett at de forsøker. Men med fremgang i Ukraina er sjansene mye større for at de lykkes. PÃ¥virkningsoperasjoner og innblanding i valg er enklere nÃ¥r det er stor sosial misnøye i befolkningen.</p><p>Som om ikke dette var nok, skal man absolutt ikke se bort ifra at Washington i en slik situasjon vil se med sympatiske øyne pÃ¥ det Russland gjør. Donald Trump og visepresident J D Vance støtter jo Ã¥penlyst de høyreradikale partiene i Europa. Trump har jo ogsÃ¥ en tendens til Ã¥ snu kappen etter vinden og støtte de han antar er i medvind â i dette tilfellet Russland.</p><div data-element-guid=\"b9622a53-e84d-4b5e-fe5a-6427e7ea4456\" class=\"column google-ad display-label widthFull\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"articleboard/board2\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('articleboard/board2');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n<p>Europa er etter mitt skjønn i stor fare, og om ikke europeiske politikere viser handlekraft kan det gÃ¥ riktig ille. Den gode nyheten er at det er fullt mulig og egentlig ikke sÃ¥ politisk krevende Ã¥ hindre en slik utvikling. Det er det NUPI-rapporten beskriver som scenario 2. Men det fordrer at man er villig til Ã¥ ta litt mer sjanser, og tenke langsiktig og strategisk.</p><p>For det første mÃ¥ man si rett ut at mÃ¥let er at Ukraina skal vinne krigen. Man mÃ¥ slutte med vage formuleringer som at man er «med Ukraina i hundre Ã¥r» eller «sÃ¥ lenge som det trengs» â for det blir ingen forhandling med Putin før han ser seg tjent med Ã¥ avslutte krigen. Med slike vage formuleringer blir ogsÃ¥ innsatsen halvhjertet. Ukrainsk seier betyr ikke full gjenerobring av alt okkupert land, men at staten overlever, og at man er sterk nok militært til Ã¥ stanse de pÃ¥gÃ¥ende angrepene.</p><article data-element-guid=\"2b2b785b-1c98-4603-87de-c1c6097ef2f7\" class=\"column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kommentar\" data-instance=\"10047272\" data-image-float=\"floatRight\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content bg-tertiary color_mobile_bg-tertiary op-bg_60 color_mobile_op-bg_60 border-bg-secondary mobile_border-bg-secondary vertical-text-align-center mobile-vertical-text-align-center hasContentPadding mobile-hasContentPadding hasBorder mobile-hasBorder\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"/kommentar/charlie-og-ingrid-olina/10047272\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10047272\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"7b7122d5-e3ce-4e0f-9606-cb715eff68c3\" class=\"desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\" style=\"width:184px;\">\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=webp\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=jpg\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=webp\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\"\n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n title=\"Charlie og Ingrid Olina\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"vertically-aligned-text\">\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline t19 tm14\"\n style=\"\"\n >Charlie og Ingrid Olina\n</h2>\n\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-09T17:41:22+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<p>For det andre bør Europa meisle ut en egen strategi for Ã¥ oppnÃ¥ denne seieren pÃ¥ en mÃ¥te som involverer og inkluderer USA, men som ikke er avhengig av USAs ressurser for Ã¥ lykkes. Men det er fortsatt avgjørende Ã¥ holde USA «inne», det vil si pÃ¥ Europa og Ukrainas side og ikke Russlands, all den tid dette dreier seg om Europas framtid, ikke bare Ukrainas. </p><p>For det tredje mÃ¥ Europa bidra langt mer. Her mÃ¥ man snarest finne en mÃ¥te Ã¥ frigjøre de frosne russiske sentralbankmidlene pÃ¥. Ukraina trenger mye mer penger slik at de kan øke produksjonskapasiteten i egen forsvarsindustri, og samtidig kjøpe de vÃ¥pnene de trenger. </p><div data-element-guid=\"0654166e-766d-43a5-88d5-a0f4498d6c60\" class=\"column google-ad display-label widthFull\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"articleboard/board3\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('articleboard/board3');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n<p>Norge mÃ¥ ogsÃ¥ gjøre mye mer. Det aller viktigste regjeringen kan gjøre er Ã¥ bruke vÃ¥r oljeformue pÃ¥ en strategisk mÃ¥te. Dagens Nansen-pakke er bra den, men burde vært langt større. Det er fullt mulig innenfor handlingsregelen. Samtidig burde regjeringen funnet smarte mÃ¥ter Ã¥ kunne bidra med oljefondet uten at det politiseres. Ãkonomer og andre eksperter har foreslÃ¥tt flere løsninger, som Ã¥ <a href=\"https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/norway-should-guarantee-eu-ukraine-loan-secured-by-russian-assets-by-havard-halland-3-and-knut-anton-mork-2025-10\">garantere</a> for lÃ¥net knyttet til de frosne russiske midlene, eller Ã¥ lage et eget <a href=\"https://www.dn.no/kronikk/sikkerhetspolitikk/finans/oljefondet/oljefondet-kan-finansiere-europas-opprustning/2-1-1781171\">forsvarsfond</a>. Det fordrer kreativ tenkning i Finansdepartementet.</p><p>Det er vanskelig Ã¥ sette en prislapp pÃ¥ risikoen ved en ukrainsk kollaps, men alternativet kan være tidenes beste investering i vÃ¥r â og neste generasjons â fremtid, velferd og sikkerhet. Poenget i NUPI-rapporten er at det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier. </p><p>Alternativet til at Europa â og Norge â tar seg sammen, er svært dystert. Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare, men denne utviklingen kan stanses av visjonære politikere som tør Ã¥ stÃ¥ fram. Hvem tar ballen?</p><p class=\"italic m-italic\" data-lab-italic=\"italic\">FÃ¥ nyhetsbrev fra Dagsavisen. Meld deg pÃ¥ <a href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/om-dagsavisen/2023/12/20/fa-daglig-nyhetsbrev/\">her</a>!</p><article data-element-guid=\"96b41fb6-cf84-4656-9b5f-1b16012b7944\" class=\"column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kommentar\" data-instance=\"10043628\" data-image-float=\"floatRight\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content bg-tertiary color_mobile_bg-tertiary op-bg_60 color_mobile_op-bg_60 border-bg-secondary mobile_border-bg-secondary vertical-text-align-center mobile-vertical-text-align-center hasContentPadding mobile-hasContentPadding hasBorder mobile-hasBorder\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"/kommentar/sosialisme-the-american-way/10043628\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10043628\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"0d9df18b-33c0-4b4e-afff-612919b591f1\" class=\"desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\" style=\"width:184px;\">\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=webp\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=jpg\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=webp\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\"\n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n title=\"Sosialisme the american way\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"vertically-aligned-text\">\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline t19 tm14\"\n style=\"\"\n >Sosialisme the american way\n</h2>\n\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-08T06:00:00+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n\n\n \n\n \n</div>\n\n\n \n\n\n \n<div data-element-guid=\"5f739e31-2d87-4865-a1bb-aac9045af601\" class=\"column articleFooter\">\n <span class=\"tags\">\n <a href=\"/tags/ukraina\">ukraina</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/vladimir%20putin\">vladimir putin</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/kommentar\">kommentar</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/karsten%20friis\">karsten friis</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/h%C3%B8yrepopulisme\">høyrepopulisme</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/europa\">europa</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/nupi-rapport\">nupi-rapport</a>\n </span>\n \n</div>\n\n\n <div class=\"row social\">\n <div class=\"column large-12 small-12\">\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-social-facebook\" aria-label=\"Del pÃ¥ Facebook\"></a>\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"mailto:?subject=Europa%20er%20i%20stor%20fare&body=Kan%20ytre%20h%C3%B8yre%20vinne%20fram%20i%20Europa%20om%20vi%20ikke%20klarer%20%C3%A5%20stanse%20Vladimir%20Putin%20i%20Ukraina%3F%20Det%20er%20dessverre%20et%20fullt%20mulig%20utfall.%0Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-mail\" aria-label=\"Del via e-mail\"></a>\n </div>\n </div>\n\n </section>\n \n </article>\n <section class=\"related desktop-fullWidth mobile-fullWidth fullwidthTarget\">\n <div data-element-guid=\"2dd59dbd-edb7-4e5d-8690-afb97c71a424\" class=\"page-content\"><div data-element-guid=\"7e111bfb-306b-4393-9054-60a3a1a66872\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\">\n<!-- placeholder(#1) -->\n<div data-element-guid=\"8b3e480a-b13d-4a54-9970-ef5039ef1d99\" class=\"front_rows small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12 large-12 small-12\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n \n <div data-element-guid=\"5de07c53-01d3-47bb-be6e-597a6a6b37d8\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><div data-element-guid=\"676e9362-fb2a-47e1-871b-5e0b8006f50c\" id=\"markup_9634045\" class=\"markupbox column small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n\n \n\n \n\n <div id=\"belowarticle\"></div>\n\n \n \n </div>\n</div>\n</div>\n<div data-element-guid=\"e815b6f3-e10a-47f1-8a8e-5e3579dc2696\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><div data-element-guid=\"64458b00-1581-4327-8268-468fcee6b7cb\" id=\"markup_9634042\" class=\"markupbox column small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n\n \n\n \n\n <div class=\"strossle-widget\"></div>\n\n \n \n </div>\n</div>\n</div>\n<div data-element-guid=\"c83a61a6-4990-4ad2-b189-b0a9a81d9b88\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><article data-element-guid=\"895f4156-0195-463e-949c-d6aaae7fcf4b\" class=\"column small-12 large-6 small-abs-12 large-abs-6 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"nyheter\" data-instance=\"4218051\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/rodt-krever-3500-flere-ansatte-i-barnehagene/10052285\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10052285\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"3614a30f-58c1-493c-8acc-168df1442d63\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10052284.jpg?imageId=10052284&panox=0.00&panoy=18.61&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=29.62&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=1058&height=478&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"529\"\n height=\"239\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10052284.jpg?imageId=10052284&panox=0.00&panoy=18.61&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=29.62&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=1058&height=478&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"529\"\n height=\"239\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10052284.jpg?imageId=10052284&panox=0.00&panoy=18.61&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=29.62&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10052284.jpg?imageId=10052284&panox=0.00&panoy=18.61&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=29.62&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10052284.jpg?imageId=10052284&panox=0.00&panoy=18.61&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=29.62&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Rødt krever 3500 flere ansatte i barnehagene\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Rødt krever 3500 flere ansatte i barnehagene\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-11T20:14:48+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<article data-element-guid=\"473ec2fa-f836-4cf2-a0a3-1b97110fb0d5\" class=\"column small-12 large-6 small-abs-12 large-abs-6 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"nyheter\" data-instance=\"4218053\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/skatteetaten-treffer-bedre-i-moms-kontrollene/10052215\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10052215\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"4bcefc7a-ca20-47eb-9f62-91e85dd42b68\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10052214.jpg?imageId=10052214&panox=0.00&panoy=12.06&panow=100.00&panoh=70.88&heightx=35.81&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.90&heighth=100.00&width=1058&height=478&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"529\"\n height=\"239\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10052214.jpg?imageId=10052214&panox=0.00&panoy=12.06&panow=100.00&panoh=70.88&heightx=35.81&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.90&heighth=100.00&width=1058&height=478&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"529\"\n height=\"239\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10052214.jpg?imageId=10052214&panox=0.00&panoy=12.06&panow=100.00&panoh=70.88&heightx=35.81&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.90&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10052214.jpg?imageId=10052214&panox=0.00&panoy=12.06&panow=100.00&panoh=70.88&heightx=35.81&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.90&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10052214.jpg?imageId=10052214&panox=0.00&panoy=12.06&panow=100.00&panoh=70.88&heightx=35.81&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.90&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Skatteetaten: â Treffer bedre i moms-kontrollene\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Skatteetaten: â Treffer bedre i moms-kontrollene\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-11T18:08:52+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n</div>\n<div data-element-guid=\"461b530d-6b58-48c7-a571-65f80d0a20fa\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><article data-element-guid=\"1e307260-578a-4dbb-affc-9f647329d614\" class=\"column paywall small-12 large-4 small-abs-12 large-abs-4 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"nyheter\" data-instance=\"4218055\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/dette-trenger-du-a-vite-om-arets-klimatoppmote/10050755\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10050755\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"587be6fa-c40c-4cda-82ed-b3afd56f0acd\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10051834.jpg?imageId=10051834&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10051834.jpg?imageId=10051834&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10051834.jpg?imageId=10051834&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10051834.jpg?imageId=10051834&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10051834.jpg?imageId=10051834&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Dette trenger du Ã¥ vite om Ã¥rets klimatoppmøte\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Dette trenger du Ã¥ vite om Ã¥rets klimatoppmøte\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-11T17:38:58+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<article data-element-guid=\"366440f1-900c-4d50-b20b-7b95190ac977\" class=\"column small-12 large-4 small-abs-12 large-abs-4 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"nyheter\" data-instance=\"4218057\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/eks-arbeidsminister-tonje-brenna-fikk-forsikringer-om-at-nav-feilene-var-rettet/10052198\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10052198\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"a08dfbde-734f-4f76-bd8c-f25aa3fb846e\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9905064.jpg?imageId=9905064&panox=0.00&panoy=3.06&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=37.58&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9905064.jpg?imageId=9905064&panox=0.00&panoy=3.06&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=37.58&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9905064.jpg?imageId=9905064&panox=0.00&panoy=3.06&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=37.58&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9905064.jpg?imageId=9905064&panox=0.00&panoy=3.06&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=37.58&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9905064.jpg?imageId=9905064&panox=0.00&panoy=3.06&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=37.58&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Eks-arbeidsminister Tonje Brenna: â Fikk forsikringer om at Nav-feilene var rettet\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Tonje Brenna: â Fikk forsikringer om at Nav-feilene var rettet\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-11T17:34:32+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<article data-element-guid=\"49eb7884-5c37-4637-ae01-ed97a7d59a36\" class=\"column small-12 large-4 small-abs-12 large-abs-4 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"nyheter\" data-instance=\"4218059\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/tyrkia-krever-over-2000-ars-fengsel-for-opposisjonsleder/10052142\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10052142\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"8102e4b1-b0af-4fa2-99eb-feec6e92e844\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10052140.jpg?imageId=10052140&panox=0.00&panoy=22.22&panow=100.00&panoh=68.25&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10052140.jpg?imageId=10052140&panox=0.00&panoy=22.22&panow=100.00&panoh=68.25&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10052140.jpg?imageId=10052140&panox=0.00&panoy=22.22&panow=100.00&panoh=68.25&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10052140.jpg?imageId=10052140&panox=0.00&panoy=22.22&panow=100.00&panoh=68.25&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10052140.jpg?imageId=10052140&panox=0.00&panoy=22.22&panow=100.00&panoh=68.25&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Tyrkia: Krever over 2000 Ã¥rs fengsel for opposisjonsleder\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Tyrkia: Krever over 2000 Ã¥rs fengsel for opposisjonsleder\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-11T16:43:17+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n</div>\n\n </div>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n</div>\n\n </section>\n </main>\n <div data-element-guid=\"7fa383cf-eae6-40f3-cbc6-3309e5e0a09e\" class=\"placeholder placement-left\">\n<div data-element-guid=\"fc8bdb64-d332-48fa-e8d7-c7e214fbab89\" class=\"column google-ad small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12 sticky display-label\" style=\"top: 80px;\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" 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large-3 small-abs-12 large-abs-3\">\n <style></style>\n <h2 class=\"content singleline t16 tm17\" style=\" \">\n <span data-lab-text_size_desktop=\"20\" class=\"t20 font-weight-bold m-font-weight-bold font-PTSerif\" data-lab-font_weight_desktop=\"font-weight-bold\" data-lab-fontface=\"PTSerif\">DAGSAVISEN<br></span>\n<br><span data-lab-fontface=\"PTSerif\" class=\"font-PTSerif\">Sjefredaktør: <a href=\"mailto:Lars.West.Johnsen@dagsavisen.no\" class=\"primary color_mobile_primary\" data-lab-text_color_desktop=\"primary\">Lars West Johnsen</a>\n<br>Adm. direktør: <a href=\"mailto:nina.kordahl@dagsavisen.no\" class=\"primary color_mobile_primary\" data-lab-text_color_desktop=\"primary\">Nina Kordahl</a>\n<br>Nyhetsredaktør (konst.): <a href=\"mailto:tore.ryssdalsnes@dagsavisen.no\" class=\"primary color_mobile_primary\" data-lab-text_color_desktop=\"primary\">Tore Ryssdalsnes</a>\n<br>Nyhetsredaktør: <a href=\"mailto:kathleen.buer@dagsavisen.no\" class=\"primary color_mobile_primary\" 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"source_updated_at" : "2025-11-11 05:00:00",
"summary" : "Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.",
"tags" : "ukraina, vladimir putin, kommentar, karsten friis, høyrepopulisme, europa, nupi-rapport",
"title" : "Et autoritært Europa er en reell fare",
"twitter_title" : "Europa er i stor fare",
"version" : 2
}
Version 1
2025-11-11 09:09:54
Europa er i stor fare
NEW
Published: 2025-11-11 06:00:00
Updated: 2025-11-11 06:00:00
📝 Summary
Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.
🔍 All Metadata (JSON)
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"content" : "",
"author" : "Karsten Friis",
"description" : "Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.",
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📰 Original Feed Item XML
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<link>https://www.dagsavisen.no/kommentar/europa-er-i-stor-fare/10046230</link>
<guid>https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10046230</guid>
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🔍 Raw HTML (117772 bytes)
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alt="Det blir veldig mye dyrere å la Russland vinne krigen fremfor å investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. På bildet ser en kvinne på en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovestad Kyiv."
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<figcaption itemprop="caption" class="">Det blir veldig mye dyrere å la Russland vinne krigen fremfor å investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. På bildet ser en kvinne på en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovedstad Kyiv.</figcaption>
<figcaption itemprop="author" class="" data-byline-prefix="">FOTO: Alina Smutko / NTB</figcaption>
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<p class="kicker t30 tertiary color_mobile_tertiary" style="">Kommentar</p>
<h1 class="headline mainTitle t104 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic" style="">Europa er i stor fare</h1>
<h2 class="subtitle t27 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic" style="">Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.</h2>
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<span class="lab-hidden-byline-name" itemprop="name">Karsten Friis</span>
<span class="firstname ">Karsten</span>
<span class="lastname ">Friis</span>
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<span class="lab-hidden-byline-name" itemprop="name">Karsten Friis</span>
<span class="description ">Forsker 1, NUPI</span>
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<time datetime="2025-11-11T05:00:00.000Z" title="Publisert 11.11.2025 - 06:00">11.11.2025 - 06:00</time>
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<span>Lesetid: <span class="read-time-value">4 min</span></span>
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<p> <span data-lab-italic="italic" class="italic m-italic">Dette er en kommentar. Holdninger og meninger i teksten stÃ¥r for skribentens regning.<br> </span></p><p>Se for deg følgende scenario. Europa 2029: Nigel Farage har blitt statsminister i Storbritannia, Marie le Pens Nasjonal Front styrer Frankrike, Alternativ for Tyskland kontrollerer Berlin, og Lov og Rett-partiet har vunnet tilbake makten i Polen. I tillegg har høyrepopulister konsolidert makten i resten av sentral- og Ãst-Europa, fra Ãsterrike til Tsjekkia, Slovakia, Ungarn, Romania, Moldova og Bulgaria.</p><p>Parallelt med dette har europeisk økonomi blitt kraftig svekket, det er sterk sosial uro knyttet til store flyktningstrømmer, og organisert kriminalitet med utgangspunkt i Russland festet et jerngrep over store deler av kontinentet.</p><div data-element-guid="6423cb22-b56e-4b00-9395-38ebd2b792f4" class="quotebox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8">
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<h3 class="quote "
style="">Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare.</h3>
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<p>Er dette kun et teoretisk mareritt scenario eller en realistisk mulighet? Jeg frykter at det dessverre er et fullt mulig utfall av dagens europeiske politikk â inkludert den norske.</p><div data-element-guid="4c32aefe-bd65-4374-932d-416337c6cce5" class="column google-ad display-label widthFull" style="">
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<p>Sakens kjerne er Ukraina. Utmattelseskrigen med Russland er i ferd med å tippe i sistnevntes favør. De tar litt og litt land, de ødelegger strøm, vann, veier og jernbane, de terroriserer den ukrainske sivilbefolkningen hver eneste dag. Med dagens nivå på vestlig støtte til Ukraina vil landet neppe klare å stå imot den russiske aggresjonen over tid. Det man bidrar med nå vil i så fall være fullstendig bortkastet fordi det ikke er tilstrekkelig til å stanse Russland. Det bidrar i stedet til en mer langsom død.</p><div data-element-guid="afef610d-32cf-45ce-8b00-8c21ead212e3" id="markup_10050373" class="markupbox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8">
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<p>Hva vil skje om Russland fortsetter Ã¥ kverne seg fram? NUPI legger i dag fram en rapport som har regnet pÃ¥ to scenarioer. Ett hvor Russland vinner fram og ødelegger Ukrainas framtidsutsikter, og ett hvor Ukraina klarer Ã¥ fÃ¥ et visst overtak og overlever som et selvstendig, demokratisk land. I det første scenarioet vil det blant annet føre til at flere mennesker flykter fra Ukraina. Om Russland for eksempel klarer Ã¥ ta seg fram mot Dnipro-eleven, og samtidig gjøre hele landet til en krigssone der det er vanskelig Ã¥ bo, vil det raskt kunne komme 4â6 millioner nye flyktninger. Bare de økonomiske utgiftene til dette vil langt overgÃ¥ det som gis i militær støtte fra Europa i dag. I tillegg vil det høyst sannsynlig skape sosial og politisk uro i land som Polen, Tyskland, og øst-Europeiske land.</p><article data-element-guid="56d62f35-2e78-4701-8f35-73ae95d789ae" class="column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 " data-site-alias="dagsavisen" data-section="kommentar" data-instance="10047300" data-image-float="floatRight" itemscope>
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<p>Videre vil et Ukraina i unntakstilstand gradvis erodere sine relativt svake demokratiske institusjoner. Ãkonomien er ogsÃ¥ unormal, med store summer som kommer inn gjennom utenlandske donorer i stedet for gjennom skatter, avgifter og økonomisk vekst. Organisert kriminalitet stortrives under slike forhold â og den foregÃ¥r pÃ¥ tvers av landegrenser. Russiske og ukrainske kriminelle har ingen samarbeidsproblemer. Politikk og organisert kriminalitet blir fortere sammenvevd i slike situasjoner, og kan utgjøre en symbiose som kan være svært nyttig for Kreml. Oppildnet av fremgang i Ukraina kan Moskva søke Ã¥ svekke ikke bare det ukrainske demokratiet, men ogsÃ¥ Moldova, Romania, Serbia og sÃ¥ videre. Dette har vi jo allerede sett at de forsøker. Men med fremgang i Ukraina er sjansene mye større for at de lykkes. PÃ¥virkningsoperasjoner og innblanding i valg er enklere nÃ¥r det er stor sosial misnøye i befolkningen.</p><p>Som om ikke dette var nok, skal man absolutt ikke se bort ifra at Washington i en slik situasjon vil se med sympatiske øyne pÃ¥ det Russland gjør. Donald Trump og visepresident J D Vance støtter jo Ã¥penlyst de høyreradikale partiene i Europa. Trump har jo ogsÃ¥ en tendens til Ã¥ snu kappen etter vinden og støtte de han antar er i medvind â i dette tilfellet Russland.</p><div data-element-guid="c89fc8e0-df8a-40f0-d324-aa45e16d5629" class="column google-ad display-label widthFull" style="">
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<p>Europa er etter mitt skjønn i stor fare, og om ikke europeiske politikere viser handlekraft kan det gÃ¥ riktig ille. Den gode nyheten er at det er fullt mulig og egentlig ikke sÃ¥ politisk krevende Ã¥ hindre en slik utvikling. Det er det NUPI-rapporten beskriver som scenario 2. Men det fordrer at man er villig til Ã¥ ta litt mer sjanser, og tenke langsiktig og strategisk.</p><p>For det første mÃ¥ man si rett ut at mÃ¥let er at Ukraina skal vinne krigen. Man mÃ¥ slutte med vage formuleringer som at man er «med Ukraina i hundre Ã¥r» eller «sÃ¥ lenge som det trengs» â for det blir ingen forhandling med Putin før han ser seg tjent med Ã¥ avslutte krigen. Med slike vage formuleringer blir ogsÃ¥ innsatsen halvhjertet. Ukrainsk seier betyr ikke full gjenerobring av alt okkupert land, men at staten overlever, og at man er sterk nok militært til Ã¥ stanse de pÃ¥gÃ¥ende angrepene.</p><article data-element-guid="2b2b785b-1c98-4603-87de-c1c6097ef2f7" class="column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 " data-site-alias="dagsavisen" data-section="kommentar" data-instance="10047272" data-image-float="floatRight" itemscope>
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<p>For det andre bør Europa meisle ut en egen strategi for å oppnå denne seieren på en måte som involverer og inkluderer USA, men som ikke er avhengig av USAs ressurser for å lykkes. Men det er fortsatt avgjørende å holde USA «inne», det vil si på Europa og Ukrainas side og ikke Russlands, all den tid dette dreier seg om Europas framtid, ikke bare Ukrainas. </p><p>For det tredje må Europa bidra langt mer. Her må man snarest finne en måte å frigjøre de frosne russiske sentralbankmidlene på. Ukraina trenger mye mer penger slik at de kan øke produksjonskapasiteten i egen forsvarsindustri, og samtidig kjøpe de våpnene de trenger. </p><div data-element-guid="d5898475-db36-44ec-ca0a-2f84abc12cbe" class="column google-ad display-label widthFull" style="">
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<p>Norge mÃ¥ ogsÃ¥ gjøre mye mer. Det aller viktigste regjeringen kan gjøre er Ã¥ bruke vÃ¥r oljeformue pÃ¥ en strategisk mÃ¥te. Dagens Nansen-pakke er bra den, men burde vært langt større. Det er fullt mulig innenfor handlingsregelen. Samtidig burde regjeringen funnet smarte mÃ¥ter Ã¥ kunne bidra med oljefondet uten at det politiseres. Ãkonomer og andre eksperter har foreslÃ¥tt flere løsninger, som Ã¥ <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/norway-should-guarantee-eu-ukraine-loan-secured-by-russian-assets-by-havard-halland-3-and-knut-anton-mork-2025-10">garantere</a> for lÃ¥net knyttet til de frosne russiske midlene, eller Ã¥ lage et eget <a href="https://www.dn.no/kronikk/sikkerhetspolitikk/finans/oljefondet/oljefondet-kan-finansiere-europas-opprustning/2-1-1781171">forsvarsfond</a>. Det fordrer kreativ tenkning i Finansdepartementet.</p><p>Det er vanskelig Ã¥ sette en prislapp pÃ¥ risikoen ved en ukrainsk kollaps, men alternativet kan være tidenes beste investering i vÃ¥r â og neste generasjons â fremtid, velferd og sikkerhet. Poenget i NUPI-rapporten er at det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier. </p><p>Alternativet til at Europa â og Norge â tar seg sammen, er svært dystert. Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare, men denne utviklingen kan stanses av visjonære politikere som tør Ã¥ stÃ¥ fram. Hvem tar ballen?</p><p class="italic m-italic" data-lab-italic="italic">FÃ¥ nyhetsbrev fra Dagsavisen. Meld deg pÃ¥ <a href="https://www.dagsavisen.no/om-dagsavisen/2023/12/20/fa-daglig-nyhetsbrev/">her</a>!</p><article data-element-guid="96b41fb6-cf84-4656-9b5f-1b16012b7944" class="column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 " data-site-alias="dagsavisen" data-section="kommentar" data-instance="10043628" data-image-float="floatRight" itemscope>
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\n position: relative; \n width: 100vw; \n margin-left: calc(50% - 50vw); \n padding: 3px 20px;\n background-color: #f0f0f0; \n color: #333; \n text-align: center; \n font-size: 1em;\n border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; \n z-index: 1000; \n}\n</style>\n\n\n <div data-element-guid=\"956b51b9-3cb7-4d73-add6-b4668bb3c0ad\" class=\"articleHeader column hasCaption\">\n\n \n\n\n\n\n <div class=\"media\">\n \n <figure data-element-guid=\"eb615933-440c-4137-9404-e4aac3b251ac\" class=\"headerImage\">\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046501.webp?imageId=10046501&width=2116&height=1208&format=webp\" \n width=\"1058\"\n height=\"604\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046501.webp?imageId=10046501&width=2116&height=1208&format=jpg\" \n width=\"1058\"\n height=\"604\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046501.webp?imageId=10046501&width=960&height=548&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"274\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046501.webp?imageId=10046501&width=960&height=548&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"274\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046501.webp?imageId=10046501&width=960&height=548&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"274\"\n title=\"Det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne krigen fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. PÃ¥ bildet ser en kvinne pÃ¥ en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovedstad Kyiv.\"\n alt=\"Det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne krigen fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. PÃ¥ bildet ser en kvinne pÃ¥ en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovestad Kyiv.\" \n \n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\"></div>\n </div>\n\n\n <div class=\"caption \" data-showmore=\"Vis mer\">\n <figcaption itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"\">Det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne krigen fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier, skriver Karsten Friis. PÃ¥ bildet ser en kvinne pÃ¥ en minnetavle over falne soldater i Ukrainas hovedstad Kyiv.</figcaption>\n <figcaption itemprop=\"author\" class=\"\" data-byline-prefix=\"\">FOTO: Alina Smutko / NTB</figcaption>\n </div>\n\n\n <p class=\"kicker t30 tertiary color_mobile_tertiary\" style=\"\">Kommentar</p>\n <h1 class=\"headline mainTitle t104 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic\" style=\"\">Europa er i stor fare</h1>\n <h2 class=\"subtitle t27 align-center mobile_text_align_align-center italic m-italic\" style=\"\">Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer Ã¥ stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.</h2>\n\n\n\n <div data-element-guid=\"21306d0b-2844-4823-e5ad-e521f747b72a\" class=\"meta\">\n \n\n <div class=\"bylines\">\n <div data-element-guid=\"672684fa-4d02-4e34-8cec-d477f4038f6e\" class=\"byline column\" itemscope itemtype=\"http://schema.org/Person\">\n \n <div class=\"content\">\n <figure data-element-guid=\"a71b5c02-12f2-4e6e-8142-a4f1ad94c25e\">\n <picture>\n <img\n itemprop=\"image\"\n src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9839868.webp?imageId=9839868&width=360&height=360\"\n width=\"180\"\n height=\"180\"\n alt=\"Karsten Friis\">\n </picture>\n</figure>\n <address class=\"name\">\n <a rel=\"author\" itemprop=\"url\" href=\"mailto:kf@nupi.no\">\n <span class=\"lab-hidden-byline-name\" itemprop=\"name\">Karsten Friis</span>\n <span class=\"firstname \">Karsten</span>\n <span class=\"lastname \">Friis</span>\n </a>\n\n <span class=\"lab-hidden-byline-name\" itemprop=\"name\">Karsten Friis</span>\n <span class=\"description \">Forsker 1, NUPI</span>\n </address>\n </div>\n</div>\n\n \n </div>\n \n <div class=\"dates\">\n \n <span class=\"dateGroup datePublished\">\n <span class=\"dateLabel\">Publisert</span>\n <time datetime=\"2025-11-11T05:00:00.000Z\" title=\"Publisert 11.11.2025 - 06:00\">11.11.2025 - 06:00</time>\n </span>\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"read-time\">\n <span>Lesetid: <span class=\"read-time-value\">4 min</span></span>\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"social\">\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-social-facebook\" aria-label=\"Del pÃ¥ Facebook\"></a>\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"mailto:?subject=Europa%20er%20i%20stor%20fare&body=Kan%20ytre%20h%C3%B8yre%20vinne%20fram%20i%20Europa%20om%20vi%20ikke%20klarer%20%C3%A5%20stanse%20Vladimir%20Putin%20i%20Ukraina%3F%20Det%20er%20dessverre%20et%20fullt%20mulig%20utfall.%0Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-mail\" aria-label=\"Del via e-mail\"></a>\n </div>\n\n\n\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n \n\n \n <div data-element-guid=\"d3f312da-a15e-46da-c757-9a8477f865b0\" class=\"placeholder fullWidth\">\n<div data-element-guid=\"71c9eacc-b2fd-46fa-fb08-7012cf2853af\" class=\"column google-ad small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12 display-label\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"nettbanner1\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('nettbanner1');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n \n\n <div data-element-guid=\"21306d0b-2844-4823-e5ad-e521f747b72a\" class=\"bodytext large-12 small-12 medium-12\">\n \n \n\n <p> <span data-lab-italic=\"italic\" class=\"italic m-italic\">Dette er en kommentar. Holdninger og meninger i teksten stÃ¥r for skribentens regning.<br> </span></p><p>Se for deg følgende scenario. Europa 2029: Nigel Farage har blitt statsminister i Storbritannia, Marie le Pens Nasjonal Front styrer Frankrike, Alternativ for Tyskland kontrollerer Berlin, og Lov og Rett-partiet har vunnet tilbake makten i Polen. I tillegg har høyrepopulister konsolidert makten i resten av sentral- og Ãst-Europa, fra Ãsterrike til Tsjekkia, Slovakia, Ungarn, Romania, Moldova og Bulgaria.</p><p>Parallelt med dette har europeisk økonomi blitt kraftig svekket, det er sterk sosial uro knyttet til store flyktningstrømmer, og organisert kriminalitet med utgangspunkt i Russland festet et jerngrep over store deler av kontinentet.</p><div data-element-guid=\"6423cb22-b56e-4b00-9395-38ebd2b792f4\" class=\"quotebox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8\">\n \n <div class=\"content\"\n style=\"--bg-color: var(--); --text-color: var(--); \" \n >\n \n <h3 class=\"quote \"\n style=\"\">Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare.</h3>\n <p class=\"author dac-hidden\"\n style=\"\"></p>\n </div>\n</div>\n<p>Er dette kun et teoretisk mareritt scenario eller en realistisk mulighet? Jeg frykter at det dessverre er et fullt mulig utfall av dagens europeiske politikk â inkludert den norske.</p><div data-element-guid=\"4c32aefe-bd65-4374-932d-416337c6cce5\" class=\"column google-ad display-label widthFull\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"articleboard/board1\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('articleboard/board1');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n<p>Sakens kjerne er Ukraina. Utmattelseskrigen med Russland er i ferd med Ã¥ tippe i sistnevntes favør. De tar litt og litt land, de ødelegger strøm, vann, veier og jernbane, de terroriserer den ukrainske sivilbefolkningen hver eneste dag. Med dagens nivÃ¥ pÃ¥ vestlig støtte til Ukraina vil landet neppe klare Ã¥ stÃ¥ imot den russiske aggresjonen over tid. Det man bidrar med nÃ¥ vil i sÃ¥ fall være fullstendig bortkastet fordi det ikke er tilstrekkelig til Ã¥ stanse Russland. Det bidrar i stedet til en mer langsom død.</p><div data-element-guid=\"afef610d-32cf-45ce-8b00-8c21ead212e3\" id=\"markup_10050373\" class=\"markupbox column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n\n \n\n \n\n <script data-wid=\"auto\" type=\"text/javascript\" src=\"https://content.viralize.tv/display/?zid=AAEU4R86_QAFkLJ0&cid=ABNYxNcQshbO8snQ\"></script>\n\n \n \n </div>\n</div>\n<p>Hva vil skje om Russland fortsetter Ã¥ kverne seg fram? NUPI legger i dag fram en rapport som har regnet pÃ¥ to scenarioer. Ett hvor Russland vinner fram og ødelegger Ukrainas framtidsutsikter, og ett hvor Ukraina klarer Ã¥ fÃ¥ et visst overtak og overlever som et selvstendig, demokratisk land. I det første scenarioet vil det blant annet føre til at flere mennesker flykter fra Ukraina. Om Russland for eksempel klarer Ã¥ ta seg fram mot Dnipro-eleven, og samtidig gjøre hele landet til en krigssone der det er vanskelig Ã¥ bo, vil det raskt kunne komme 4â6 millioner nye flyktninger. Bare de økonomiske utgiftene til dette vil langt overgÃ¥ det som gis i militær støtte fra Europa i dag. I tillegg vil det høyst sannsynlig skape sosial og politisk uro i land som Polen, Tyskland, og øst-Europeiske land.</p><article data-element-guid=\"56d62f35-2e78-4701-8f35-73ae95d789ae\" class=\"column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kommentar\" data-instance=\"10047300\" data-image-float=\"floatRight\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content bg-tertiary color_mobile_bg-tertiary op-bg_60 color_mobile_op-bg_60 border-bg-secondary mobile_border-bg-secondary vertical-text-align-center mobile-vertical-text-align-center hasContentPadding mobile-hasContentPadding hasBorder mobile-hasBorder\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"/kommentar/eus-kamp-mot-tek-oligarkene/10047300\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10047300\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"7cbbd2dc-db26-4f8a-9b53-350f7c27dd61\" class=\"desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\" style=\"width:184px;\">\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=webp\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=jpg\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=webp\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047323.webp?imageId=10047323&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\"\n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n title=\"EUs kamp mot tek-oligarkene\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"vertically-aligned-text\">\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline t19 tm14\"\n style=\"\"\n >EUs kamp mot tek-oligarkene\n</h2>\n\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-10T06:02:00+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<p>Videre vil et Ukraina i unntakstilstand gradvis erodere sine relativt svake demokratiske institusjoner. Ãkonomien er ogsÃ¥ unormal, med store summer som kommer inn gjennom utenlandske donorer i stedet for gjennom skatter, avgifter og økonomisk vekst. Organisert kriminalitet stortrives under slike forhold â og den foregÃ¥r pÃ¥ tvers av landegrenser. Russiske og ukrainske kriminelle har ingen samarbeidsproblemer. Politikk og organisert kriminalitet blir fortere sammenvevd i slike situasjoner, og kan utgjøre en symbiose som kan være svært nyttig for Kreml. Oppildnet av fremgang i Ukraina kan Moskva søke Ã¥ svekke ikke bare det ukrainske demokratiet, men ogsÃ¥ Moldova, Romania, Serbia og sÃ¥ videre. Dette har vi jo allerede sett at de forsøker. Men med fremgang i Ukraina er sjansene mye større for at de lykkes. PÃ¥virkningsoperasjoner og innblanding i valg er enklere nÃ¥r det er stor sosial misnøye i befolkningen.</p><p>Som om ikke dette var nok, skal man absolutt ikke se bort ifra at Washington i en slik situasjon vil se med sympatiske øyne pÃ¥ det Russland gjør. Donald Trump og visepresident J D Vance støtter jo Ã¥penlyst de høyreradikale partiene i Europa. Trump har jo ogsÃ¥ en tendens til Ã¥ snu kappen etter vinden og støtte de han antar er i medvind â i dette tilfellet Russland.</p><div data-element-guid=\"c89fc8e0-df8a-40f0-d324-aa45e16d5629\" class=\"column google-ad display-label widthFull\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"articleboard/board2\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('articleboard/board2');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n<p>Europa er etter mitt skjønn i stor fare, og om ikke europeiske politikere viser handlekraft kan det gÃ¥ riktig ille. Den gode nyheten er at det er fullt mulig og egentlig ikke sÃ¥ politisk krevende Ã¥ hindre en slik utvikling. Det er det NUPI-rapporten beskriver som scenario 2. Men det fordrer at man er villig til Ã¥ ta litt mer sjanser, og tenke langsiktig og strategisk.</p><p>For det første mÃ¥ man si rett ut at mÃ¥let er at Ukraina skal vinne krigen. Man mÃ¥ slutte med vage formuleringer som at man er «med Ukraina i hundre Ã¥r» eller «sÃ¥ lenge som det trengs» â for det blir ingen forhandling med Putin før han ser seg tjent med Ã¥ avslutte krigen. Med slike vage formuleringer blir ogsÃ¥ innsatsen halvhjertet. Ukrainsk seier betyr ikke full gjenerobring av alt okkupert land, men at staten overlever, og at man er sterk nok militært til Ã¥ stanse de pÃ¥gÃ¥ende angrepene.</p><article data-element-guid=\"2b2b785b-1c98-4603-87de-c1c6097ef2f7\" class=\"column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kommentar\" data-instance=\"10047272\" data-image-float=\"floatRight\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content bg-tertiary color_mobile_bg-tertiary op-bg_60 color_mobile_op-bg_60 border-bg-secondary mobile_border-bg-secondary vertical-text-align-center mobile-vertical-text-align-center hasContentPadding mobile-hasContentPadding hasBorder mobile-hasBorder\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"/kommentar/charlie-og-ingrid-olina/10047272\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10047272\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"7b7122d5-e3ce-4e0f-9606-cb715eff68c3\" class=\"desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\" style=\"width:184px;\">\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=webp\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=jpg\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=webp\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10047295.webp?imageId=10047295&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\"\n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n title=\"Charlie og Ingrid Olina\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"vertically-aligned-text\">\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline t19 tm14\"\n style=\"\"\n >Charlie og Ingrid Olina\n</h2>\n\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-09T17:41:22+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<p>For det andre bør Europa meisle ut en egen strategi for Ã¥ oppnÃ¥ denne seieren pÃ¥ en mÃ¥te som involverer og inkluderer USA, men som ikke er avhengig av USAs ressurser for Ã¥ lykkes. Men det er fortsatt avgjørende Ã¥ holde USA «inne», det vil si pÃ¥ Europa og Ukrainas side og ikke Russlands, all den tid dette dreier seg om Europas framtid, ikke bare Ukrainas. </p><p>For det tredje mÃ¥ Europa bidra langt mer. Her mÃ¥ man snarest finne en mÃ¥te Ã¥ frigjøre de frosne russiske sentralbankmidlene pÃ¥. Ukraina trenger mye mer penger slik at de kan øke produksjonskapasiteten i egen forsvarsindustri, og samtidig kjøpe de vÃ¥pnene de trenger. </p><div data-element-guid=\"d5898475-db36-44ec-ca0a-2f84abc12cbe\" class=\"column google-ad display-label widthFull\" style=\"\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"articleboard/board3\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('articleboard/board3');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n<p>Norge mÃ¥ ogsÃ¥ gjøre mye mer. Det aller viktigste regjeringen kan gjøre er Ã¥ bruke vÃ¥r oljeformue pÃ¥ en strategisk mÃ¥te. Dagens Nansen-pakke er bra den, men burde vært langt større. Det er fullt mulig innenfor handlingsregelen. Samtidig burde regjeringen funnet smarte mÃ¥ter Ã¥ kunne bidra med oljefondet uten at det politiseres. Ãkonomer og andre eksperter har foreslÃ¥tt flere løsninger, som Ã¥ <a href=\"https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/norway-should-guarantee-eu-ukraine-loan-secured-by-russian-assets-by-havard-halland-3-and-knut-anton-mork-2025-10\">garantere</a> for lÃ¥net knyttet til de frosne russiske midlene, eller Ã¥ lage et eget <a href=\"https://www.dn.no/kronikk/sikkerhetspolitikk/finans/oljefondet/oljefondet-kan-finansiere-europas-opprustning/2-1-1781171\">forsvarsfond</a>. Det fordrer kreativ tenkning i Finansdepartementet.</p><p>Det er vanskelig Ã¥ sette en prislapp pÃ¥ risikoen ved en ukrainsk kollaps, men alternativet kan være tidenes beste investering i vÃ¥r â og neste generasjons â fremtid, velferd og sikkerhet. Poenget i NUPI-rapporten er at det blir veldig mye dyrere Ã¥ la Russland vinne fremfor Ã¥ investere i en ukrainsk seier. </p><p>Alternativet til at Europa â og Norge â tar seg sammen, er svært dystert. Et autoritært Europa med krympende økonomier, sosial uro, mistillit og disintegrasjon er en reell fare, men denne utviklingen kan stanses av visjonære politikere som tør Ã¥ stÃ¥ fram. Hvem tar ballen?</p><p class=\"italic m-italic\" data-lab-italic=\"italic\">FÃ¥ nyhetsbrev fra Dagsavisen. Meld deg pÃ¥ <a href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/om-dagsavisen/2023/12/20/fa-daglig-nyhetsbrev/\">her</a>!</p><article data-element-guid=\"96b41fb6-cf84-4656-9b5f-1b16012b7944\" class=\"column desktop-floatCenter mobile-floatCenter paywall small-12 large-8 small-abs-12 large-abs-8 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"kommentar\" data-instance=\"10043628\" data-image-float=\"floatRight\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content bg-tertiary color_mobile_bg-tertiary op-bg_60 color_mobile_op-bg_60 border-bg-secondary mobile_border-bg-secondary vertical-text-align-center mobile-vertical-text-align-center hasContentPadding mobile-hasContentPadding hasBorder mobile-hasBorder\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"/kommentar/sosialisme-the-american-way/10043628\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10043628\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"0d9df18b-33c0-4b4e-afff-612919b591f1\" class=\"desktop-floatRight mobile-floatRight\" style=\"width:184px;\">\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=webp\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=368&height=204&format=jpg\" \n width=\"184\"\n height=\"102\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=webp\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\" \n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10046815.webp?imageId=10046815&x=0.00&y=0.00&cropw=100.00&croph=100.00&heightx=0.00&heighty=0.00&heightw=100.00&heighth=100.00&width=250&height=188&format=jpg\"\n width=\"125\"\n height=\"94\"\n title=\"Sosialisme the american way\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n <div class=\"vertically-aligned-text\">\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline t19 tm14\"\n style=\"\"\n >Sosialisme the american way\n</h2>\n\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-08T06:00:00+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n\n\n \n\n \n</div>\n\n\n \n\n\n \n<div data-element-guid=\"21306d0b-2844-4823-e5ad-e521f747b72a\" class=\"column articleFooter\">\n <span class=\"tags\">\n <a href=\"/tags/ukraina\">ukraina</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/vladimir%20putin\">vladimir putin</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/kommentar\">kommentar</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/karsten%20friis\">karsten friis</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/h%C3%B8yrepopulisme\">høyrepopulisme</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/europa\">europa</a>\n <a href=\"/tags/nupi-rapport\">nupi-rapport</a>\n </span>\n \n</div>\n\n\n <div class=\"row social\">\n <div class=\"column large-12 small-12\">\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-social-facebook\" aria-label=\"Del pÃ¥ Facebook\"></a>\n <a target=\"blank\" href=\"mailto:?subject=Europa%20er%20i%20stor%20fare&body=Kan%20ytre%20h%C3%B8yre%20vinne%20fram%20i%20Europa%20om%20vi%20ikke%20klarer%20%C3%A5%20stanse%20Vladimir%20Putin%20i%20Ukraina%3F%20Det%20er%20dessverre%20et%20fullt%20mulig%20utfall.%0Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagsavisen.no%2Fkommentar%2Feuropa-er-i-stor-fare%2F10046230\" class=\"fi-mail\" aria-label=\"Del via e-mail\"></a>\n </div>\n </div>\n\n </section>\n \n </article>\n <section class=\"related desktop-fullWidth mobile-fullWidth fullwidthTarget\">\n <div data-element-guid=\"2dd59dbd-edb7-4e5d-8690-afb97c71a424\" class=\"page-content\"><div data-element-guid=\"b5741725-ebed-41a8-fa55-bb332306fa95\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\">\n<!-- placeholder(#1) -->\n<div data-element-guid=\"d1456021-684f-490d-fc01-0d9710193d0a\" class=\"front_rows small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n \n <div data-element-guid=\"5de07c53-01d3-47bb-be6e-597a6a6b37d8\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><div data-element-guid=\"676e9362-fb2a-47e1-871b-5e0b8006f50c\" id=\"markup_9634045\" class=\"markupbox column small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n\n \n\n \n\n <div id=\"belowarticle\"></div>\n\n \n \n </div>\n</div>\n</div>\n<div data-element-guid=\"e815b6f3-e10a-47f1-8a8e-5e3579dc2696\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><div data-element-guid=\"64458b00-1581-4327-8268-468fcee6b7cb\" id=\"markup_9634042\" class=\"markupbox column small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12\">\n \n <div class=\"content fullwidthTarget\" style=\"\">\n\n \n\n \n\n <div class=\"strossle-widget\"></div>\n\n \n \n </div>\n</div>\n</div>\n<div data-element-guid=\"c83a61a6-4990-4ad2-b189-b0a9a81d9b88\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><article data-element-guid=\"895f4156-0195-463e-949c-d6aaae7fcf4b\" class=\"column small-12 large-6 small-abs-12 large-abs-6 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"nyheter\" data-instance=\"4218051\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/vedum-vender-tommel-ned-for-norge-som-garantist-for-ukraina-lan-enorm-risiko/10050803\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10050803\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"3614a30f-58c1-493c-8acc-168df1442d63\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050802.jpg?imageId=10050802&panox=0.00&panoy=9.17&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=38.54&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=1058&height=478&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"529\"\n height=\"239\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050802.jpg?imageId=10050802&panox=0.00&panoy=9.17&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=38.54&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=1058&height=478&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"529\"\n height=\"239\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050802.jpg?imageId=10050802&panox=0.00&panoy=9.17&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=38.54&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050802.jpg?imageId=10050802&panox=0.00&panoy=9.17&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=38.54&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050802.jpg?imageId=10050802&panox=0.00&panoy=9.17&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=38.54&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Vedum vender tommel ned for Norge som garantist for Ukraina-lÃ¥n: â Enorm risiko\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Vedum vender tommel ned for Norge som garantist for Ukraina-lÃ¥n: â Enorm risiko\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-11T09:51:48+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<article data-element-guid=\"473ec2fa-f836-4cf2-a0a3-1b97110fb0d5\" class=\"column small-12 large-6 small-abs-12 large-abs-6 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"nyheter\" data-instance=\"4218053\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/politiet-i-troms-flere-saker-hvor-ungdommer-blir-voldsrekruttert-i-sosiale-medier-flere-pagrepet/10050714\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10050714\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"4bcefc7a-ca20-47eb-9f62-91e85dd42b68\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050712.jpg?imageId=10050712&width=1058&height=478&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"529\"\n height=\"239\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050712.jpg?imageId=10050712&width=1058&height=478&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"529\"\n height=\"239\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050712.jpg?imageId=10050712&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050712.jpg?imageId=10050712&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050712.jpg?imageId=10050712&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Politiet i Troms: Flere saker hvor ungdommer blir voldsrekruttert i sosiale medier â flere pÃ¥grepet\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Troms: Ungdommer blir voldsrekruttert i sosiale medier\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-11T09:40:36+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n</div>\n<div data-element-guid=\"461b530d-6b58-48c7-a571-65f80d0a20fa\" class=\"row small-12 large-12\" style=\"\"><article data-element-guid=\"1e307260-578a-4dbb-affc-9f647329d614\" class=\"column small-12 large-4 small-abs-12 large-abs-4 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"nyheter\" data-instance=\"4218055\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/frp-apner-for-skatteforlik-med-ap/10050689\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10050689\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"587be6fa-c40c-4cda-82ed-b3afd56f0acd\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050688.jpg?imageId=10050688&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=4.44&heighty=0.00&heightw=29.43&heighth=71.43&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050688.jpg?imageId=10050688&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=4.44&heighty=0.00&heightw=29.43&heighth=71.43&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050688.jpg?imageId=10050688&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=4.44&heighty=0.00&heightw=29.43&heighth=71.43&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050688.jpg?imageId=10050688&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=4.44&heighty=0.00&heightw=29.43&heighth=71.43&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050688.jpg?imageId=10050688&panox=0.00&panoy=0.00&panow=100.00&panoh=71.67&heightx=4.44&heighty=0.00&heightw=29.43&heighth=71.43&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Frp Ã¥pner for skatteforlik med Ap\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Frp Ã¥pner for skatteforlik med Ap\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-11T09:37:58+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<article data-element-guid=\"366440f1-900c-4d50-b20b-7b95190ac977\" class=\"column small-12 large-4 small-abs-12 large-abs-4 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"nyheter\" data-instance=\"4218057\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/eu-ekspert-om-at-norge-stiller-som-garantist-for-ukraina-lan-stralende-ide/10050618\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10050618\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"a08dfbde-734f-4f76-bd8c-f25aa3fb846e\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9918767.jpg?imageId=9918767&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9918767.jpg?imageId=9918767&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9918767.jpg?imageId=9918767&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9918767.jpg?imageId=9918767&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/9918767.jpg?imageId=9918767&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"EU-ekspert om at Norge stiller som garantist for Ukraina-lÃ¥n: â StrÃ¥lende idé\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >EU-ekspert om at Norge stiller som garantist for Ukraina-lÃ¥n: â StrÃ¥lende idé\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-11T09:29:25+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n<article data-element-guid=\"49eb7884-5c37-4637-ae01-ed97a7d59a36\" class=\"column small-12 large-4 small-abs-12 large-abs-4 \" data-site-alias=\"dagsavisen\" data-section=\"nyheter\" data-instance=\"4218059\" itemscope>\n \n <div class=\"content\" style=\"\">\n \n <a itemprop=\"url\" class=\"\" href=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/sp-for-budsjettforhandlinger-krever-55-milliarder-kroner-til-kommunene/10050582\" data-k5a-url=\"https://www.dagsavisen.no/a/10050582\" rel=\"\">\n\n\n <div class=\"media \">\n \n\n <figure data-element-guid=\"8102e4b1-b0af-4fa2-99eb-feec6e92e844\" class=\"\" >\n <div class=\"img fullwidthTarget\">\n <picture>\n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050581.jpg?imageId=10050581&heightx=38.22&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050581.jpg?imageId=10050581&heightx=38.22&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=706&height=318&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"353\"\n height=\"159\"\n media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050581.jpg?imageId=10050581&heightx=38.22&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=webp\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/webp\"> \n <source srcset=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050581.jpg?imageId=10050581&heightx=38.22&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\" \n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n media=\"(max-width: 767px)\"\n type=\"image/jpeg\"> \n <img src=\"https://image.dagsavisen.no/10050581.jpg?imageId=10050581&heightx=38.22&heighty=0.00&heightw=41.43&heighth=100.00&width=960&height=432&format=webp&format=jpg\"\n width=\"480\"\n height=\"216\"\n title=\"Sp før budsjettforhandlinger: Krever 5,5 milliarder kroner til kommunene\"\n alt=\"\" \n loading=\"lazy\"\n style=\"\" \n >\n </picture> \n </div>\n \n</figure>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <div class=\"floatingText\">\n\n <div class=\"labels\">\n </div>\n </div>\n \n\n </div>\n\n\n \n <h2 itemprop=\"headline\" \n class=\"headline \"\n style=\"\"\n >Sp før budsjettforhandlinger: Krever 5,5 milliarder kroner til kommunene\n</h2>\n\n \n\n\n\n\n </a>\n\n <time itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2025-11-11T08:56:28+01:00\"></time>\n </div>\n</article>\n</div>\n\n </div>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n</div>\n\n </section>\n </main>\n <div data-element-guid=\"8e7297ba-d901-46cd-b54d-ed42be929363\" class=\"placeholder placement-left\">\n<div data-element-guid=\"64b6c502-338d-455c-d557-e555cded2fd6\" class=\"column google-ad small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12 sticky display-label\" style=\"top: 80px;\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" id=\"left_sticky\" ></div>\n <script>\n googletag.cmd.push(function() {\n googletag.display('left_sticky');\n });\n </script>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n <div data-element-guid=\"d178ad92-d91d-47b1-8594-2d9e58bbb386\" class=\"placeholder placement-right\">\n<div data-element-guid=\"371a6bd4-2dc3-41cc-c346-0febed358606\" class=\"column google-ad small-12 large-12 small-abs-12 large-abs-12 sticky display-label\" style=\"top: 80px;\">\n\n <span class=\"ad-label\">Annonse</span>\n <div class=\"adunit\" 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"source_updated_at" : "2025-11-11 06:00:00",
"summary" : "Kan ytre høyre vinne fram i Europa om vi ikke klarer å stanse Vladimir Putin i Ukraina? Det er dessverre et fullt mulig utfall.",
"tags" : null,
"title" : "Europa er i stor fare",
"twitter_title" : null,
"version" : 1
}